Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Chuba Hubbard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Hubbard has been a big part of the Panthers’ offense all season, and he’s generally been effective. He’s averaged 4.7 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns, and he’s eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career. The Panthers rewarded him with a contract extension earlier this season, and it’s hard to say he hasn’t earned it.
However, there has been some concern about Hubbard’s workload in recent weeks. The team selected Jonathan Brooks in the 2024 NFL, and they liked him enough to make him the first running back off the board. Brooks was being eased into the offense after suffering a knee injury in his final collegiate season, but he handled 29% of the team’s carries in Week 13. His role was poised to continue growing, resulting in a major downgrade for Hubbard.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, Brooks suffered a torn ACL last week. It was the same knee that he injured in college, putting his NFL future in doubt.
With Brooks back out of the picture, Hubbard can return to a bell-cow role for the Panthers. He ultimately played on 97% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, which was his highest output of the year. He finished with more than 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown vs. the Eagles, and he racked up 20.7 DraftKings points.
Now, he draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Cowboys. They’re dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. It’s also a rare spot where the Panthers are favored, so Hubbard could be even busier than usual.
Ultimately, Hubbard checks all the boxes you look for in a cash game running back. He’s a good player in a great matchup, and his role is poised to grow. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a no-brainer first choice.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Henry started the year red hot for the Ravens, but he’s cooled off a bit in recent weeks. He’s had 17.0 DraftKings points or fewer in four straight games, and he has just one 100-yard outing over that time frame. He’s been kept out of the end zone in back-to-back games, the only two games where he’s failed to score all year.
However, Henry should be able to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. The Ravens are on the road vs. the Giants, but that isn’t stopping them from being the largest favorites of the week. They’re 16.5-point favorites, and their 29.5 implied team total is the top mark on the slate. Ultimately, they’re expected to steamroll New York.
Henry is unstoppable in nearly all situations, but he’s historically been incredible as a big favorite. He’s played in 16 games where favored by at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged 22.8 DraftKings points and a +6.53 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). In four outings as a member of the Ravens, he’s at +5.69.
The Giants’ defense is merely 22nd in rush defense EPA, and they’re without their best defender in Dexter Lawrence. They’re also without another interior defender and linebacker Bobby Okereke, so I have no idea how they’re going to slow down Henry. He should be able to carve through this unit like a hot knife through butter, and he has the top median and ceiling projections at the position. He’s the clear choice if spending up.
Rico Dowdle ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Most DFS players are going to target Hubbard, which could make Dowdle a bit undervalued. Some players don’t like to use two running backs from the same contest, and Hubbard is the clear top option at the position.
Still, Dowdle is a really strong target in his own right. He trails only Hubbard in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s fourth at the position on FanDuel.
Dowdle started the year in a committee with Ezekiel Elliott, but he has taken over as the team’s unquestioned top running back. Over their past three games, he’s played on 70% of the team’s snaps and has handled 72% of their carries. He’s topped 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games, scoring at least 18.1 DraftKings points in each.
Additionally, Dowdle has started to take on a bigger role as a pass-catcher. Hunter Luepke has handled most of the third-down responsibilities this season, but Dowdle played on 56% of the long-down and distance snaps last week. That was his best mark since all the way back in Week 1. If he can add more pass-catching upside to his rushing workload, he has the potential to be an excellent fantasy running back to close the season.
The Cowboys are underdogs this week, but the Panthers still stand out as an elite matchup. They’re 31st in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the most PPR points per game to the position.
Ultimately, he’s another player who checks all the boxes that you’re looking for at a pretty reasonable price tag.
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James Conner ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Conner is definitely worthy of being in the cash game consideration, especially on DraftKings. His $6,600 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the fourth-best mark at the position.
Conner continues to provide one of the most overlooked workloads in football. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of 13 games on DraftKings, making him an extremely consistent producer. That includes 22.2 DraftKings points last week vs. the Seahawks.
Conner handled 75% of the team’s snaps and 78% of their carries last week, and he continues to provide value as a pass-catcher and a touchdown scorer. He’s had at least three targets in nine straight games, and he’s handled the vast majority of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line.
Conner will take the field in an excellent situation Sunday vs. the Patriots. New England is another team that has struggled to defend the run this season, and they’ve allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. The Cardinals are also listed as six-point favorites, and Conner has averaged a +6.09 Plus/Minus when favored by at least a field goal with Arizona.
Rachaad White ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
White stands out as another strong value on DraftKings, but he’s worth considering across the industry. There’s a chance that Bucky Irving will be out of the lineup this week vs. the Chargers. He missed the first two practices this week, and while he got in a limited session on Friday, he’s still listed as questionable.
Irving was limited to just 17% of the snaps and 15% of the carries last week, and White was the clear beneficiary. His 17 carries were his top mark of the entire season, and he turned them into 90 yards and a touchdown. He also added his typical receiving production, catching two passes for 19 yards and a score.
The Chargers don’t stand out as a strong matchup, but if Irving is unable to play, White is clearly undervalued across the industry. Only Hubbard appears in the optimal lineup sims more frequently on DraftKings, while he’s fourth at the position on FanDuel.
Saquon Barkley ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
Henry is expected to be the top choice for those paying up at running back this slate, meaning Barkley could be a bit undervalued. That would be a mistake. Barkley has been the clear top producer in fantasy this season, especially in PPR formats. He’s averaged more than 23 PPR points per game, while no other running back is even above 20.
Even in a down performance last week, Barkley still managed to rack up 124 rushing yards and 17.4 DraftKings points. That said, his ceiling is what makes him appealing. He’s finished as the top scorer at the position on four separate occasions this year, and he has two other top-three finishes.
In other words: when Barkley hits his ceiling, almost no one at the position can match him. Maybe Henry can do it this week, but that’s only because he has the juiciest of matchups. Barkley’s skill set is more diverse, and he’s capable of doing immense damage as a runner and a receiver. Even in a subpar matchup vs. the Steelers, he still has the fifth-highest optimal rate on DraftKings and third-highest on FanDuel.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
De’Von Achane ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
When Tua Tagovailoa has been in the lineup this season, Achane has basically smashed. The crazy thing is he hasn’t even run the ball well. He has just 70 total rushing yards across his past three contests, and he’s still finished with a positive Plus/Minus in each game. That seems basically impossible.
Achane’s utilization as a receiver is unmatched at the position. He’s racked up 20 targets over his past three outings, and he’s caught three touchdowns. He has at least seven targets in six separate games. Ultimately, he’s producing like a starting wide receiver for fantasy before factoring in any of his rushing production.
If he can improve a bit on the ground – which is not crazy given his average of 7.8 yards per carry last year – he has a ceiling that can rival the top RBs on the slate. He’s priced at a significant discount compared to those options, and he’s also projected for less than 10% ownership. That makes him an ideal GPP target.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Pacheco has suited up in the past two games for the Chiefs, and they have gradually ramped up his workload. He played on just 33% of the snaps in his first game back, but he was up to 48% in his second. He handled 58% of the team’s carries, and he was also targeted on 28% of his routes run.
Pacheco’s role should continue to grow moving forward. He’s the team’s best option in the backfield, and he should serve as their bell-cow in the playoffs. Expect the Chiefs to continue to gradually increase his involvement.
That makes him an interesting option vs. the Browns. They’ve been subpar defensively this season, ranking 18th in rush defense EPA. As usual, the Chiefs are also listed as favorites. Pacheco’s price tag has come down by more than -$1,000 from its peak on FanDuel, giving him some buy-low appeal.
Breece Hall ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Hall is completely unplayable on FanDuel, and he’s pretty risky on DraftKings, too. That said, he’s impossible to ignore at just $6,400. He missed the Jets’ last contest, but he is tentatively expected to return to the lineup vs. the Jaguars. There’s no guarantee he handles a full workload – especially with the Jets having nothing to play for – but the matchup is elite. The Jaguars have been a disaster defensively all year, and they’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position.
Hall went for more than 31 DraftKings points just two games ago, so he still brings an elite ceiling to the table. His 98% Bargain Rating is the top mark at running back on DraftKings, and he’s projected for less than 5% ownership on this slate.
Zach Charbonnet ($6,700 FanDuel)
Charbonnet isn’t going to be particularly contrarian on FanDuel, which is the only site where he’s available. In fact, there’s a chance he’s the highest-owned player on the slate. Still, he absolutely needs to be mentioned.
Kenneth Walker is doubtful for Sunday Night Football, and Charbonnet has generally smashed with Walker out of the lineup this season. He’s finished as a top-eight scorer at the position in all three starts, including a No. 1 overall finish last week vs. the Cardinals. He does everything that you look for in a fantasy running back, so he’s an elite option if Walker misses his second straight game. The Packers aren’t an ideal matchup, but this is simply too cheap of a price tag.
