Week 15 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Kyler Murray ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

The Cardinals suffered a loss to the Seahawks last week, but Murray was still able to just barely return value for fantasy players. He racked up 19.96 DraftKings points, which was just enough to pay off his $6,000 salary.

Murray has remained affordable for Week 15, and this week, his matchup is a lot friendlier. The Seahawks weren’t a bad matchup, but the Patriots are undoubtedly better. They’re 31st in pass defense EPA, which is better only than the Jaguars. They haven’t been quite as poor in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but Murray still owns a respectable +0.9 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Still, this is primarily about the price tag. Murray is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in football, capable of racking up points with his arm and his legs. He’s historically had a comparable salary in 23 previous starts, and he’s averaged a +1.57 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). If we reduce the sample to only games where Murray is a home favorite – like he is vs. the Patriots – his average goes to 24.31 DraftKings points and a +5.35 Plus/Minus. Overall, this is simply too cheap for a player who brings some of the most rushing upside in the league to the position.

Justin Herbert ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Herbert doesn’t do nearly as much with his legs as Murray, and his fantasy production has been up-and-down all season. The Chargers started the year as one of the most run-heavy teams in football, posting a Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) of -4%. Herbert was dreadful in those contests, scoring 13.68 DraftKings points or fewer in each.

Since then, the Chargers have undergone a bit of a schematic shift. Over their next six games, the team had a DBOE of +3%, and they had a positive mark in five of six outings. Herbert’s fantasy production went way up, and he finished with at least 17.62 DraftKings points in all six contests. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them, including games of 24.06 and 25.38 DraftKings points.

Over the past two games, the Chargers’ DBOE has dipped back to +1%, and they were below average last week in a really slow game vs. the Chiefs. Herbert slumped back to 7.98 and 13.72 DraftKings points, so it’s anyone’s guess as to which version we’ll see vs. the Buccaneers.

The good news is that the matchup is extremely favorable. Tampa Bay has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks all season, surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Ladd McConkey could also return to the lineup after missing the team’s last game; he’s officially listed as questionable but has logged six straight limited practices.

If Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman let Herbert air it out, he has the potential to put up a big number in this spot. The team is currently implied for 24.25 points, and while that might not jump off the page, it represents a solid increase from their regular season average (21.3).

Herbert ultimately ranks second at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, trailing only Murray.

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Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

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Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Joe Burrow ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

If the Bengals had a better defense – and therefore won more games – Burrow would be in contention for the MVP. That’s how good of a season he’s having. He’s leading the league in completions, attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns, and he’s the No. 3 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game. Only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have been better, and they both bring way more rushing upside to the table.

Even without being a huge threat with his legs, Burrow has been on a serious heater. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, including four games with at least 28.56 DraftKings points. He’s had at least three touchdown passes in five straight outings, and he’s also topped 300 yards in four of them.

So, why is Burrow currently projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings? That makes zero sense to me in a matchup vs. the Titans. Tennessee isn’t an ideal opponent, but they’re far from unbeatable: they’re 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Ultimately, Burrow is showing up in the Sim Labs optimal lineup simulations at the second-highest frequency on DraftKings. He dips to No. 3 on FanDuel, but his optimal rate is still significantly higher than his projected ownership. There’s no reason to shy away from him now.

Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

While Burrow has played extremely well of late, what Allen did Sunday vs. the Rams was on a whole different level. He ultimately turned in the greatest fantasy performance by any quarterback in the Football Reference database, which goes all the way back to 1950.

Allen had a great day as a passer, finishing with 342 yards and three touchdowns, but his legs were ultimately what put him over the top. He added 82 rushing yards and three touchdowns, bringing his final tally to 54.88 DraftKings points. We truly may never see another performance like it.

It was the first time that Allen cleared 30 DraftKings points since Week 3, but he’s been putting up consistent production all season. He has just three games with less than 20.2 DraftKings points, giving him an elite combination of floor and ceiling.

Allen will face a tough test this week vs. the Lions, but that game is expected to have tons of scoring. It leads the slate with a massive 54.5-point total. Allen will also take the field as an underdog, and unlike most quarterbacks, that tends to be his best split. Since the start of 2020-21, Allen has averaged 27.89 DraftKings points and a +4.07 Plus/Minus when getting points.

Ultimately, no one at the position can match his ceiling, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate at quarterback on FanDuel.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Things have not gone the way Rodgers and the Jets were hoping this season. He was supposed to be the franchise savior, but he missed all but four plays in his first year after injuring his Achilles. He’s followed that up with just a 3-10 record this season, and he barely resembles the guy who won four MVP awards with the Packers.

However, he’s down to just $5,400 on DraftKings and is coming off one of his best games of the year last week vs. the Dolphins. He finished with 339 yards and a touchdown, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus for just the third time all year.

If he can do that vs. the Dolphins, there’s no reason he can’t do the same vs. the Jaguars. Jacksonville hasn’t just had the worst pass defense in football this season. They’ve done so by a laughable margin, ranking dead last in EPA per play. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and the only reason that isn’t higher is because opposing offenses don’t really have to throw the ball for four quarters.

If Rodgers has anything left in the tank, this is a spot where he should put up numbers.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Drake Maye ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Maye hasn’t put up eye-popping numbers for the Patriots, but he’s vastly exceeded expectations as a rookie. He’s also been a solid source of fantasy value, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of eight games on FanDuel. He brings solid rushing production to the table, averaging 38.3 yards per game, and he’s had at least 59 yards in two of his past five outings.

Maye is being slightly overlooked by the field against the Cardinals. It’s a solid matchup – Arizona is 19th in dropback EPA – and escaping the cold weather of Boston for the comfort of Arizona is another plus. Ultimately, only Burrow is showing up with a greater disparity between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate on DraftKings.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Don’t look now, but here comes Tua. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s had at least 26.54 DraftKings points in three straight. The Dolphins still possess some of the most dangerous pass-catchers in the game, and they look even scarier following Jonnu Smith’s breakout.

Despite his recent production, Tagovailoa is still just $6,100 on DraftKings for this week’s matchup vs. the Texans. It is on the road – where Tagovailoa has historically been worse – but playing in the dome in Houston is not the same as going outdoors in inclement weather. His DraftKings price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, making him one of the best pure values of the week.

C.J. Stroud ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

On the other side of that matchup, Stroud also has some buy-low appeal. The Texans’ offense has been a major disappointment for most of the year. That was partially expected when Nico Collins missed time with an injury, but they haven’t looked much better since he returned. Ultimately, Stroud has posted a negative Plus/Minus in nine straight games.

That doesn’t sound great, but this is still Stroud that we’re talking about. He turned in one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history, so he could turn it around at any second. This game vs. the Dolphins and Texans has some sneaky upside, and Stroud is another player checking in with less projected ownership than his optimal lineup rate suggests.