The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Winter is upon us and injuries are adding up. There will likely be at least one underpriced 205-pound scat back attempting to navigate crowded boxes with a questionable/injured quarterback under center. Let’s take a look at this week’s running back situations around the league.
Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 13-game DraftKings and FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
Le’Veon Bell and the Patriots’ weekly headache of a backfield are playing on Sunday and Monday night, respectively. Melvin Gordon is the RB2 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but each site has a separate and worthy contender for this week’s RB1:
- Todd Gurley ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- LeSean McCoy ($7,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
DraftKings is topped by a home favorite facing the NFC’s current favorite for the No. 1 seed, while FanDuel’s RB1 could potentially lose his dual-threat quarterback to a rookie who threw five interceptions in his first 24 career passes. What could go wrong?
The Best Running Back in Los Angeles
Gurley has been lethal against just about every defense he’s faced this season thanks to bunches of targets (66) and goal line carries (12) – the sixth- and first-highest marks among all running backs this season, respectively. Still, his rushing workload has taken a noticeable dip since the Rams’ Week 8 bye:
- Per-game averages in Weeks 1-7: 20.7 att, 5.4 tgt, 131.4 total yards, 1.1 TDs
- Weeks 9-13: 15.6 att, 5.6 tgt, 116.4 total yards, 0.6 TDs
His work through the air hasn’t gone anywhere, but backup Malcom Brown is expected to return from a knee injury and could siphon away a few additional carries along with Tavon Austin. The fantasy-friendly nature of Gurley’s touches makes his workload less of a concern than it might be for other backs, but a matchup against an Eagles defense yet to allow a 100-yard rusher is concerning. PFF has graded four members of their front seven among the top-15 players at their position against the run, and the league’s 25th-ranked offensive line in highest percentage of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage will have their hands full with the league’s best defensive line in forcing those very stuffs.
Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.09. Jared Goff and Gurley’s fantasy production has a strong +0.43 correlation, which makes sense given the running back’s massive pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Gurley with Goff on Sunday.
The Kinda-Real Slim Shady
On the one hand, McCoy is back home in Buffalo, where he’s averaged an additional 7.2 DraftKings points per game (PPG) since 2015. On the other hand, Shady’s severe home/away splits could be a byproduct of Tyrod Taylor‘s (knee, questionable) similarly extreme improvement at home. McCoy has historically been much more efficient with a rushing threat at quarterback, but he should still carry a decent floor thanks to his fantasy-friendly targets and red zone presence:
Overall, Shady is one of just five backs with at least 13 combined targets inside the 10-yard line and rushes inside the five-yard line. It’s hard to find a standout on the Colts’ league-worst scoring defense, but they’ve managed to hold their opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games during a stretch that’s included Bell, Leonard Fournette, and the Titans’ two-headed attack. The Colts’ defensive line has yielded the 14th-fewest adjusted-line yards per rush this season — a feat that shouldn’t go unnoticed against the Bills’ 24th-ranked unit that could once again be without left tackle Cordy Glenn (foot/ankle, questionable).
Of course, there’s also the possibility both Mike Tolbert (hamstring, questionable) and Travaris Cadet (concussion, questionable) are out, leading to a gargantuan workload for McCoy at home. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to stay updated on all fantasy-relevant injuries, and check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see McCoy’s ownership levels across various contest sizes.
Up the Gut
Melvin Gordon ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Gordon’s quest to average over four yards per carry continues, but he’ll continue to boast one of the highest floors in the league thanks to his plethora of goal line carries and targets. Overall, he’s tied for second among all running backs with 14 combined targets inside the 10-yard line and carries inside the five-yard line. Gordon will take on a Redskins defense that hasn’t recovered from the loss of first-round defensive lineman Jonathan Allen (foot, IR), as they’ve allowed an additional 6.1 points and 50.9 rushing yards per game since he went down in Week 6. Gordon is one of just two backs in our Pro Models with a projected floor over nine DraftKings points.
Leonard Fournette ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Fournette practiced in full last week for the first time since injuring his ankle in Week 6, and the Jaguars responded by feeding him 23 touches in a game that was over by the fourth quarter. T.J. Yeldon‘s five snaps last week were his fewest in a game this season, and Chris Ivory‘s nine snaps didn’t scream ‘committee’ either. The 8-4 Jaguars can clinch a playoff berth Sunday with a win and some help, and they seem determined to ride their No. 4 overall pick to the finish line. The Seahawks’ seventh-ranked defense in rush DVOA hasn’t allowed a running back to gain more than 55 yards in a game since September, but Fournette’s projected ownership of two to four percent on DraftKings is well below his season average of 11.1 percent.
Christian McCaffrey ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): McCaffrey would benefit from the potential absence of Jonathan Stewart (foot, probable), although Cameron Artis-Payne would likely end up soaking up a good portion of the team’s early-down touches. McCaffrey’s second-half ‘surge’ hasn’t included any performances with 100-plus total yards, and his workload compared to the slate’s other top backs raises some concern:
RBs priced over $6K on DraftKings and their avg. touches per game:
-Gurley – 22.6
-Gordon – 20.8
-Shady – 21.3
-Fournette – 23.2
-McCaffrey* – 14.3
-Hunt – 19.3
-Hyde – 18.8
*J-Stew is questionable with a foot injury— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 7, 2017
McCaffrey’s touches are a bit more fantasy-friendly than most considering he’s one of just three backs with at least 60 receptions, but his lack of a goal line presence (two carries inside the five-yard line) doesn’t help. Neither does a matchup against the Vikings’ sixth-ranked defense in both rush DVOA and DVOA against receiving backs.
Kareem Hunt ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Head coach Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties last week, and the offense promptly put up 31 points on the Jets – but Hunt was still left in the background with just 12 touches despite playing a season-high 87 percent of snaps. The return of Charcandrick West (personal) doesn’t figure to help in either department, as Hunt had previously played at least 75 percent of the offense’s snaps just once with West active. It’s hard to completely give up on Hunt given he ranks among the top-three backs in both Elusive Rating and percentage of runs to go for 15-plus yards, but even another cozy matchup versus the Raiders’ league-worst defense in DVOA doesn’t guarantee anything for an early-down back in an offense calling the third-fewest run plays per game this season.
Carlos Hyde ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Hyde has averaged 8.3 targets in six starts with C.J. Beathard compared to 4.7 targets in six games with Jimmy Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer under center. Despite a career-high 52 receptions already, it’s tough to call one of just eight players with at least five drops a threat through the air. Still, the 49ers’ 14th-ranked offensive line in adjusted-line yards per rush has proven capable of handling the weaker fronts they’ve faced:
- Hyde vs. defenses ranked 20th or worse in rush DVOA (3 games): 83.3 rush YPG, 4.46 YPC, 2 total TDs
- Hyde vs. defenses ranked 16th or better in rush DVOA (9 games): 49.2 rush YPG, 3.75 YPC, 2 total TDs
The Texans’ 10th-ranked unit falls firmly in the latter group, although they’ve allowed an additional 5.6 PPG since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5. Analyze each game’s offensive and defensive line showdowns using our Matchups tool.
Jamaal Williams ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and Aaron Jones ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jones ended up playing through his knee injury and suited up last Sunday but was out-snapped by Williams 48-2. Jones did score a game-winning 20-yard touchdown on his only touch of the day, but Williams has racked up at least 21 touches in four consecutive weeks and doesn’t figure to give up too much work. Next up is a date with the Browns’ league-best defense in rush DVOA, although the unit has allowed an additional 38 rushing yards per game since their Week 9 bye.
Lamar Miller ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) and Andre Ellington ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Miller is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry, hasn’t surpassed 75 rushing yards in a game this season, and has just one rush of 20-plus yards after racking up at least seven such carries in each of the previous three seasons. Still, he now finds himself against the nirvana of run defenses, as the 49ers rank among the bottom-two units in both Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating allowed to opposing running back units on DraftKings (per our Trends tool). Also working in Miller’s favor is the likely absence of Alfred Blue (concussion, doubtful). Ellington found a role in the offense last week to the tune of six targets and two carries while playing 37 snaps out of the slot with both Bruce Ellington (hamstring, IR) and Braxton Miller (concussion, questionable) sidelined. The expected return of Will Fuller (ribs, probable) won’t help Ellington’s target share, but he’s a contrarian punt play due to his likely RB2/WR3 role against the 49ers’ 29th-ranked defense in overall DVOA.
Marshawn Lynch ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): There’s a lot to like about Lynch’s matchup this week. The Raiders’ 12th-ranked offensive line in adjusted-line yards should be able to handle the Chiefs’ 27th-ranked defense line, and the offense appears intent on feeding him the ball considering he’s racked up his two highest-touch games of the season in consecutive weeks. Still, he played fewer than 50 percent of the offense’s snaps last week and isn’t in a great spot as a four-point road dog. Exposure to Lynch should be focused on FanDuel, where he has a 91 percent Bargain Rating and projected ownership of just two to four percent.
Alfred Morris ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) and Rod Smith ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): It’d behoove the Cowboys to keep feeding Morris after they broke out of their Zeke-induced slump to the tune of 38 points against the Redskins last Thursday night. Morris racked up 27 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown in a #RevengeGame, while Smith still saw 10 carries in a clear backup role. Morris has the second-highest projected ceiling among all running backs priced under $6,000 on DraftKings, but he’ll have to get the job done against a Giants front seven that has held Ezekiel Elliott to just 3.85 yards per rush in three games – a full yard below his average against every other team.
Samaje Perine ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Perine has posted a 6-61-0 receiving line in two weeks with Chris Thompson (leg, IR) sidelined, and the Redskins’ lead back has a strong matchup on paper against the Chargers’ 28th-ranked defense in rush DVOA. That said, the Chargers’ front seven has greatly benefited from the return of linebacker Denzel Perryman, as they’ve held each of Fournette, Morris, and Cleveland’s backfield duo to fewer than seven DraftKings points during the past four weeks. An offensive line that could be without left tackle Trent Williams (knee, questionable), right tackle Morgan Moses (ankle, questionable), and center Chase Roullier (hand, questionable) won’t have an easy time handling defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram – PFF’s No. 3 and No. 7 overall edge defenders this season.
Jordan Howard ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Howard has failed to clear even six fantasy points in his last two smash spots as a home favorite against underwhelming run defenses. Next up is a road trip to Cincinnati against an underwhelming Bengals run defense, but any advantage gained from the likely absence of linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion, questionable) is likely eradicated by the loss of former All-Pro guard Kyle Long (shoulder, IR). Howard has been out-snapped 105-154 by Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen since the Bears’ Week 9 bye.
Mike Davis ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Davis has been active for two games this season, gaining 59 yards on eight touches before leaving early with a groin injury in Week 11 and later racking up 101 yards on 20 touches last Sunday night versus the Eagles. He’s proven to be the team’s ‘best’ true running back with Chris Carson (leg, IR) sidelined, as Davis’ average of 3.7 yards per carry far surpasses Eddie Lacy‘s and Thomas Rawls‘ replacement-level marks of 2.6 yards. Assuming the Seahawks decide to once again ride the man who helped them dethrone the NFC’s frontrunner, Davis offers supreme volume and a top-five Projected Plus/Minus among all running backs. All that’s in his path is a road matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 47 fewer rushing yards per game since adding Marcell Dareus to the fold in Week 9.
Jerick McKinnon ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Latavius Murray ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): After racking up at least 14 carries in the Vikings’ first four games without Dalvin Cook (knee, IR), McKinnon has averaged just 11.5 carries per game since the team’s Week 9 bye and has been delegated to 1B duties behind Murray. Still, he’s plenty involved in the passing game, as evidenced by his 4.3 targets per game since the bye, and he has a plus matchup against the Panthers’ 16th-ranked defense in DVOA versus RBs with linebacker Shaq Thompson (foot, doubtful) unlikely to suit up. Murray has been fed 15-plus carries in seven consecutive games but remains fairly game-flow dependent — something the Vikings could have a bit harder time with than normal as 2.5-point road favorites against the Panthers’ fifth-ranked defense in rush DVOA that is yet to allow a 100-yard rusher.
DeMarco Murray ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Murray broke out of a four-game slump that saw him gain just 80 yards on 43 rushes by way of a 11-66-0 line against the Texans’ injury-ravaged front seven. Henry’s 11-109-1 line again proved which back has the higher ceiling, but there’s no reason we should expect a change in workload until someone is injured. This week’s matchup is a bit tougher against the Cardinals’ fourth-ranked defense in rush DVOA.
The Model Running Backs
There are several running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two backs standing out among multiple models:
- Giovani Bernard ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
- Theo Riddick ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Bernard is the last man standing from the Bengals’ three-back committee, as Joe Mixon (concussion, questionable) is expected to join Jeremy Hill (ankle, IR) on the sideline. Brian Hill — signed off the Falcons’ practice squad a month ago — is expected to work as Bernard’s backup, a role that yielded zero snaps after Mixon was sent to the locker room Monday night. Bernard has played exactly zero career games as the offense’s featured back but has been more than capable in limited opportunities. Overall, his average of 4.2 yards per carry this season far surpasses Hill’s and Mixon’s respective 3.1 and 3.3 averages, and Gio has averaged the seventh-most yards per reception among all running backs through 13 weeks. Near-minimum price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel have Bernard as the chalkiest running back around, but a position-high Projected Plus/Minus on both sites could make extreme ownership worthwhile. He gets a Bears defense that has allowed an additional 7.9 PPG away from Soldier Field since 2016.
Riddick’s value rests on the health of Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable), who has failed to return to a full practice since missing the Lions’ Week 13 loss to the Ravens. Riddick and undrafted rookie Tion Green led the backfield in his absence, with the former racking up nine rushes and five targets and the latter 11 rushes and zero targets. Riddick’s solid performance with Abdullah out is nothing new, as he’s continuously balled out without the Lions’ RB1 since he arrived in 2015:
- Riddick w/ Abdullah (29 games): 3.7 att, 13.0 rush yds, 4.2 rec, 37.2 rec yds, .24 TDs, 10.7 DraftKings PPG
- Riddick w/o Abdullah (9 games): 9.2 att, 32.9 rush yds, 5.4 rec, 35.7 rec yds, .55 TDs, 15.6 DraftKings PPG
The Lions backfield has a great matchup against a Buccaneers defense that ranks among the bottom-three units in average DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing running back units. Six separate backs have caught at least five passes against the Buccaneers this season, and the health of Matt Stafford (right hand, probable) could perhaps lead to a larger reliance on the backfield than normal.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 14 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
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