The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Russell Wilson
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Wilson leads all players in fantasy points this year, averaging .56 fantasy points per dropback and 22.95 fantasy points per game. The Seahawks haven’t faced many tough defenses, but he’s Wilson has thrown 3 TDs in each of his past three games. The most impressive performance came against the Eagles last week. They have the third-best defensive according to DVOA. That’s only one spot behind Wilson’s Week 14 opponent, the Jaguars. Wilson was able to toss three touchdowns against the Eagles, the most they’ve allowed since Week 3.
In fact, the Eagles defense has only yielded an average of 48.3 fantasy points per-game to opponents in the last month, while the Jags have allowed 61. Neither number is appealing, but it does illustrate how deadly Wilson has been in 2017. We could also be seeing, Russ’ signature late-season surge. In the past three years, Wilson has gotten better as the season has gone along.
Normally the situation (road dog vs. the league’s best pass D) would make this a situation to avoid the matchup, but Wilson is a different beast. For more on his prospects this week, check out the Week 14 QB breakdown.
RB: Samaje Perine
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
In the last month, Perine ranks sixth in total running back touches, with a total of 76. He got stifled last Thursday night, but the dud was wholly explicable. Running backs on the road facing a divisional opponent late in the season have only averaged 7.01 FanDuel points since 2014. Plus, the Redskins were missing three starters along the offensive line, and Perine was evaluated for a concussion in the second quarter. This week is a different story. He’ll go on the road after 10 days rest to face a Chargers team that ranks 28th in rush DVOA. L.A. yields 4.73 yards per carry, 156 total yards and 22.9 FanDuel PPG to opposing running backs. Perine’s situation isn’t perfect as a road dog with a banged up offensive line, but he has an opportunity to earn elite volume in one of the best running back matchups on the slate.
WR: Trent Taylor
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
In Week 13, the San Francisco 49ers were one of two teams that had two top-20 WR performances. Trent Taylor earned 15.2 DraftKings points to make him WR18 in PPR formats. What’s most impressive is Taylor did this damage on just 31 snaps and six targets. On the year, Taylor has averaged a 50.4 percent snap rate and only once earned more than six targets, with Brian Hoyer in Week 4. Jimmy Garroppolo made Taylor a relevant fantasy target against an above-average pass defense in Chicago. In Week 14, the 49ers will face the below-average pass defense of the Texans, who have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings PPG to wide receivers. Taylor makes an ideal punt play, holding a 73.85 player rating, a median projection of 9.8 DraftKings points and the highest Points/Salary mark in our wide receiver models.
WR: Sterling Shepard
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Eli Manning will return to the Giants’ starting lineup at home against the Cowboys, with Steve Spagnolo serving as interim head coach. Shepard may be a forgotten man after the Geno Smith era, but in the two games he’s started as the No. 1 WR with Eli under center, the Oklahoma product averaged 18.5 DraftKings points. In that two-game sample, he racked up 16 receptions on 22 targets. Shepard has run 84 percent of his routes out of the slot this year and will line up across from second-string slot corner Xavier Woods. Orlando Scandrick will remain out for Week 14, after suffering a back injury last Thursday night. Woods has yielded a slate-high 87 percent catch rate in coverage, as well as .34 fantasy points per route. Slot receivers against the Cowboys have been phenomenal this year, with Larry Fitzgerald and Keenan Allen both turning in 33-point performances this year in that role. Shepard could very well return to being one of Manning’s favorite targets in a plus matchup this week, but keep an eye on our Week 14 Injury Dashboard. He sat out of Wednesday’s practice and remains questionable ahead of Sunday.
TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and FanDuel
Aside from being a nice story and getting robbed of touchdowns via replay, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been relatively quiet in the second half of the season. While he’s struggled to get consistent targets, he’s averaged a 77 percent snap rate and at least one red-zone target per-game since Week 5. Seferian-Jenkins will face a Broncos team that has lost each of their past eight games, and allowed the sixth most total DraftKings PPG in the past month. During that span they’ve yielded 14.18 PPG to opposing tight ends. In our DraftKings models, Jenkins holds a 71.83 Player Rating and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
