The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. Carolina Panthers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Hurts and the Eagles have been on fire since their bye week, winning eight straight coming into this week’s home game against the suddenly spry Panthers. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ, Hurts has the highest ceiling projection of all QBs on DraftKings and FanDuel. Hurts is more affordable on DraftKings and brings excellent leverage on both sites.
Last week, Hurts was limited to just 118 passing yards but saved his fantasy day with a rushing score to go with his passing touchdown. He has 12 rushing scores in 12 games and has thrown 14 more touchdowns with just five interceptions. He’s averaging 22.5 DraftKings points per game on the year, which is the most of any QB on the main slate, including Josh Allen, who costs more than him on DraftKings.
Hurts is in a good matchup this week against the Panthers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs this season. The Panthers have allowed 234.8 passing yards per game and 24 total QB touchdowns in 12 games. Carolina’s offense has been much better lately, but that could just keep the game close enough to make the Eagles keep their foot on the gas all game long.
If you have the salary, Hurts has the best ceiling of all QBs this week.
Top Value: Sam Darnold vs. Atlanta Falcons – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
For the second week in a row, Darnold has the top value projections at QB. In the aggregate, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel even though his salary did rise slightly on both sites this week. He and Hurts tie for the most Pro Trends at the position on DraftKings with five, and on FanDuel, they are one of five quarterbacks tied for the most Pro Trends.
Darnold has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games on FanDuel and four of his last five on DraftKings. He threw for 235 yards and two scores last week giving him multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games and a total of 23 touchdown passes in his 12 games.
Coach Kevin O’Connell’s system gives his quarterbacks plenty of opportunities to rack up yards and passing touchdowns and has been a great fit for Darnold, who has rejuvenated his career. His long-term future is unclear, but he continues to be a strong fantasy option at just over $6,000 and a great way to pay down at the position to keep extra salary available in other spots.
He’ll take on the Falcons in Minnesota this week. Opposing quarterbacks had multiple touchdown passes against Atlanta in seven straight weeks before they held Justin Herbert without a passing score last week. This matchup should be a great place for Darnold to continue his comeback tour.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara at New York Giants – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Saquon Barkley has been amazing this year and is in a great matchup against the Panthers, but Kamara has a higher ceiling and median projection than the Eagles’ star on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregate rankings. Kamara has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings as well and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Part of the reason Kamara should get a boost this week is that Tayson Hill (knee) suffered a season-ending injury last week and won’t be around to steal goal-line carries from AK anymore. Kamara hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6 against the Bucs but has still been a strong fantasy option with so many yards and such an active role in the passing game.
Kamara has at least four catches in nine straight games and has an average of 4.9 catches on 6.6 targets per game on the season. He has added 74.5 rushing yards to his 37.5 receiving yards per contest and churned out an average of 20.4 DraftKings points per game, even with limited touchdowns. With more chances to score, his ceiling is extremely high this week.
The Giants have allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in four straight weeks, giving up a total of six scores during that span and an average of 154.5 rushing yards per game to running backs over their last six contests.
Top Value: Isaac Guerendo vs. Chicago Bears – $5,400 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Coming into last week’s matchup with the Bills in the snow, Guerendo was the No. 3 running back in San Francisco behind Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle). What a difference a week makes! Both those backs are now on IR and Guerendo is lined up to be the main running back in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which almost always is a very productive spot.
Guerendo has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on FanDuel and is second behind only Kamara on DraftKings. He comes at an extremely low salary and will probably have a very high ownership, but he looks to be a “free space” play that’s just too good to pass up based on his projections across the board.
Against the Bills, Guerendo had his second rushing touchdown of the season and hauled in his only target for a three-yard loss. He did get extensive work in two games earlier this season and posted good numbers. In Week 6, he had 10 carries for 99 yards against the Seahawks, and in Week 8, he racked up 85 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while adding three catches on his way to a season-high 19.2 DraftKings points.
This will be his first chance at a full-time role, so there is some risk in rolling with the fourth-round rookie from Louisville, but we’ve seen so many running backs excel in this system that he is too good to pass up at this salary. He’s in a solid place to succeed since the Bears have given up 120+ rushing yards to running backs in four of their last five games.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
The Rams got a road win in New Orleans last week and now come home for a tough matchup against the Bills as they continue to try and put together a playoff push. Nacua has the highest ceiling projection of all wide receivers on DraftKings in the aggregate projection and the third-highest on FanDuel. He has consistently been very productive since returning from his early season knee injury and makes a great pay-up option to build around. Justin Jefferson has higher ownership projections and is intriguing as a stack with Darnold if you go that way at quarterback, but head-to-head, Nacua has been more reliable the last few weeks.
Nacua had a touchdown and 56 yards last week against the Saints, his lowest yardage total for a full game this season. He only had 11 yards against the Seahawks but was ejected from that game. In each of his other full games, he has 98+ yards and has drawn at least nine targets. He has been a go-to option in the red zone for the Rams this season, hauling in both his touchdowns in the last three weeks on plays from inside the 20.
The Bills defense won’t get any help from the weather this week since they’ll be in a dome in Los Angeles, but they have still been solid against opposing receivers this season. Before last week’s snow-aided 76 receiving yards allowed to the position, they had given up over 100 receiving yards to wide receivers in three of their previous four games.
Even in a less-than-ideal matchup, though, Nacua’s target volume makes him a solid play, and he brings great upside if he keeps getting into the end zone.
Top Value: Jerry Jeudy at Pittsburgh Steelers – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
The Browns came up short in Denver last Monday, but Jeudy had a great revenge game. His strong performance over the past few weeks makes him a great play in the Browns’ trip to Pittsburgh this week. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings, he also ranks in the top ten in Projected Plus/Minus and has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of receivers under $6,000.
Jeudy has taken off over the last few weeks since Amari Cooper was traded to the Bills and Jameis Winston took over at quarterback. Winston’s free-wheeling, aggressive tendencies give Jeudy a very high ceiling, which he showcased with 43.5 DraftKings points on Monday Night Football in Denver. He had nine catches on 13 targets for 235 yards and a touchdown in that game, exceeding salary-based expectations for the fifth straight game.
In those five games, he has averaged 9.8 targets and converted 6.6 catches per game into an average of 122.8 receiving yards. Cedric Tillman (concussion) is still sidelined and looks unlikely to play vs. the Steelers, leaving plenty of targets and potential production for Jeudy.
Wide receivers have not fared well against the Steelers overall this season, but the Bengals’ receivers racked up 190 receiving yards and three touchdowns last week. Even in the snow, Jeudy had six catches for 85 yards in Week 12 and should be in a good spot to do even better this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
The top two tight ends for the last few weeks have clearly been Trey McBride and rookie Brock Bowers. Since Bowers has questions at quarterback (and in that offense in general), I’m leaning toward Trey this week at home against the Seahawks. McBride has the second-highest median projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and brings consistent upside since he has such a huge role in the Arizona passing game.
McBride had 12 catches for the second straight week against the Vikings last week, finishing with 96 receiving yards after racking up 133 yards against Seattle in Week 12. Amazingly, he still only has one touchdown on the season, and it was a rushing score. He has averaged 6.6 catches per game for 71.0 yards per game on the season and has just one rushing attempt, but that’s the way he found the end zone. He has over 21 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and could put up even bigger numbers if he finally gets a receiving touchdown.
McBride just lit up the Seahawks in this same matchup for a season-high 28.3 DraftKings points two weeks ago, and he should be ready to roll for a rematch as the Cardinals look to bounce back from two tough road losses in a row.
Top Value: Cade Otton vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Behind the two big names at the position, Otton has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest at the position on FanDuel. He has settled into a more reduced role since the return of Mike Evans, but he may have to step up again this week if Evans continues to be hampered by hamstring and calf issues that have kept him out of practice this week.
Otton thrived in three straight games with double-digit targets earlier this year and had at least eight targets in the last four games that Evans missed. As the go-to option for Baker Mayfield, Otton posted 21+ DraftKings points in three straight games from Week 7 to Week 9.
If he’s back in that role, he’ll be in an absolute smash spot against the Raiders, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including seven tight end touchdowns.
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