The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Los Angeles Rams – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
The top two most expensive quarterbacks go head-to-head this week as Josh Allen’s Bills visit Patrick Mahomes‘ Chiefs. However, the better value as a stud this week could be Lamar Jackson. Jackson has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks this week on FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Projections and THE BLITZ projections. He also has the top Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in the three-way custom blend that we use for these previews, including those two sets of projections mixed with Chris Raybon’s projections in an even three-way blend.
In those blended projections, Jackson has the highest ceiling projection of all quarterbacks on the slate on FanDuel, where he also brings the third-highest median and floor projections. On DraftKings, Jackson has the second-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest median and floor projections in the aggregate projections.
Jackson did miss practice this week due to illness, so be sure to watch the news hub in case that is an issue heading into this week’s matchup. The Ravens are scheduled to take on the Rams at home. He threw four touchdowns and added 44.7 rushing yards per game in his last three games before the bye, and he continues to be the focal point of the Ravens offense. His rushing potential gives him a very high ceiling, as he has demonstrated with five rushing scores on the season. He averaged 55.0 rushing yards per game in his six home games and has averaged over 20 fantasy points per contest in Baltimore.
In his last meeting with the Rams, Jackson went off for a memorable five passing touchdowns and 95 rushing yards back in 2019. This season, opposing quarterbacks have averaged 235.5 passing yards against L.A. while totaling 13 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in 12 contests.
If you’re looking for a contrarian way to attack this slate, Jackson brings a high ceiling and good leverage since Mahomes and Allen will get plenty of attention and ownership in their spotlight matchup Sunday in the late game.
Top Value: Jake Browning vs. Indianapolis Colts – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Getting Jake Browning at this much of a discount won’t last long if he has many more games like last Monday. He had a great game against the Jaguars after salaries came out, and as a result, he’s vastly underpriced this week for a matchup in Indy against the Colts.
Using the blended projections, Browning has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Jackson.
He’s in a unique situation stepping in for the injured Joe Burrow to the Bengals’ passing game since he has a great set of receiving options to work with. He got Tee Higgins back from injury and showed a strong connection with superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase.
On Monday, he started with shorter passes but eventually opened up the offense and hit Chase on a nice 76-yard score. He finished with 354 passing yards and 22 rushing yards and added a rushing touchdown to that long strike to Chase. Browning was making just his second NFL start, but he looked outstanding on Monday while leading his team to the overtime win.
Whether that becomes the “Jake Browning Game” that is an outlier or the start of a pattern of success remains to be seen, but he should have a good chance to at least return value at this low salary this week. He will be at home taking on the Colts, who gave up 224 passing yards and a touchdown to Will Levis and the Titans last week. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 13 passing touchdowns in 12 games against the Colts this season and have averaged 239.6 passing yards per contest.
Browning saves so much salary that he allows you to spend up for superstars in other spots. He doesn’t have to do much to live up to salary-based expectations and should let you stack the rest of our roster.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle Seahawks – $9,200 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Even though he’s the most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel by a wide margin, Christian McCaffrey remains a top play for this week. McCaffrey has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections of all running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among all the running backs on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. He matches 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, while no other player matches more than nine. He matches an even more amazing 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel with no other player matching more than nine.
CMC had two touchdowns and ran for 114 yards on Thanksgiving night in the 49ers’ win over the Seahawks, and he followed that up with another touchdown and 93 yards last week against the Eagles. He reached 1,000 rushing yards for the third time in his career while notching his 12th rushing touchdown in as many games this season. On top of all that work on the ground, CMC has caught five more touchdowns and averaged over 35 yards per game as a receiver.
Not only does CMC have a history of success against Seattle, but opposing running backs have fared well against the Seahawks this season with 15 total touchdowns and an average of 88.6 rushing yards and 40.3 receiving yards per game.
In a good matchup and his workhorse role in the potent offense, there’s no question about how high McCaffrey’s ceiling is. The only question is whether you can find a way to make his massive salary work with other players you want to include.
Top Value: Zack Moss at Cincinnati Bengals – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
After suffering a thumb injury two weeks ago, Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is expected to miss a second straight game this week when the Colts visit Browning’s Bengals. Moss was also in this spot last week in our projections with the most Pts/Sal and highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in the blended projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Last week, Moss let his backers down with just 51 yards on 19 carries, but he was in a tough matchup on the road against the Titans. This week, he should find things much easier going against the Bengals, whose rush defense has struggled this season. The Bengals allow the fifth-most yards per carry in the league and have surrendered five running back touchdowns in the last four weeks, along with 93.8 rushing yards and 26.8 receiving yards per game.
The only good news to come out of last week for Moss was that he did get a great amount of opportunities. He played 94% of the team’s snaps and got eight rushes and one target in the red zone in addition to his monopoly on the work outside the 20-yard line. With so many opportunities, he should be able to bounce back this week.
He showed he could be a fantasy force when covering for Taylor early this season by averaging 109.25 rushing yards per game in his first four games. He had four touchdowns during that stretch, with three rushing scores and one more touchdown as part of his eight receptions.
If you are looking for other value plays, Breece Hall and Joe Mixon are worth a look as well. Mixon is an especially strong play on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Keenan Allen vs. Denver Broncos – $8,600 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
With several top receivers in primetime matchups, Keenan Allen is the best stud option on Sunday’s main slate, according to the blended projections. Allen has the highest median projection on both sites and the second-highest ceiling and floor projections behind Michael Pittman, who is also a strong pay-up play to consider. On FanDuel, Allen also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the blended projections.
Allen has been playing through multiple injuries as part of a struggling offense, but his production has actually been remarkably stable. Last week, he did have a quieter game in New England in the elements, but he should be able to turn things back around in the dome in Los Angeles for this home matchup against the Broncos, who he always seems to crush. This will be the first meeting between the teams this season, but last year, Allen had eight catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns in his only game against Denver. Opposing receivers have only scored one touchdown against the Broncos over the last five weeks, but on the season, they have averaged 10.5 catches for 141.7 yards per contest.
Since Mike Williams (knee) and Joshua Palmer (knee) are still sidelined on IR, Allen will again have to carry the load in the Chargers’ passing game. He has averaged 11.5 targets per game this season and has converted them into 8.5 receptions for 97.9 receiving yards per game. He has found the end zone eight times this season and finished with double-digit catches in three straight games before last week’s letdown in the rain in New England.
With another week to get healthy and a better game environment, Allen should return as an elite receiver this week. He’s a strong pay-up play along with Pitman, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Stefon Diggs on this slate.
Top Value: Rashee Rice vs. Buffalo Bills – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
The highest over/under on Sunday’s slate is from the big game between the Bills and Chiefs, and the Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, behind only CMC’s 49ers. While there are lots of strong options in the matchup, Rice is a great way to get some exposure at a very affordable rate.
He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the wide receivers on FanDuel and the most of any wide receiver under $7,000. He has the sixth-highest on DraftKings and the third-highest of receivers priced under $6,000. He actually has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the receivers in THE BLITZ projections for DraftKings.
Rice has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has led the Chiefs in targets in each of those two contests. He had eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 against the Raiders and followed that with eight more catches for 64 yards last week against the Packers. The Chiefs seem determined to get the ball into the rookie playmaker’s hands, and if they do that again this week in a high-scoring contest, Rice could end up with a monster breakout.
The Chiefs have been looking for a lead receiver to emerge, and it looks like Rice is growing into that option. Getting him at this midrange salary in this good of an environment is a great place to take advantage of this week. Opposing receivers have 11 touchdowns this season against the Bills, and every team but the Jets has been able to take them apart lately. Not counting their game against New York, Buffalo has given up seven wide receiver touchdowns in their last five games and over 100 yards in each of those contests.
If you have to go even cheaper at the position, Jonathan Mingo (who I highlighted here) is a good option, along with Drake London and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, especially on DraftKings. Bargain value is a little tougher to find on FanDuel, but Parker Washington could be an interesting punt play with Christian Kirk (groin) landing on IR.
Don’t forget to check out our SImLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
After two games in primetime, Kelce is back in his reserved spot as the top ceiling play in our models. He has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at tight end on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and on FanDuel, he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends. Like CMC, his upside is undeniable and almost matchup-proof, but the question is just how to build around his massive salary.
Kelce has actually slowed down a little bit over the last few weeks with the emergence of Rice and teams focusing more of their defensive scheme on taking him away. He has still been good, for sure, but he hasn’t quite been able to reach salary-based expectations. He didn’t find the end zone against the Raiders or the Packers but produced 91 and 81 yards, respectively, while still drawing a total of 12 targets.
The Bills gave up 10 catches, over 100 yards, and two touchdowns to the Bengals’ tight ends in Week 9. The Eagles didn’t use their tight ends last week very much, but the projections think there should be plenty of room for Kelce to get back on track.
Top Value: Tyler Conklin vs. Houston Texans – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel
On DraftKings, Conklin has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week using the aggregated projections. He has an 83% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and can be useful as a punt play either at tight end or utility. He’s a little higher priced on FanDuel but still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of tight ends priced under $5,000 behind only Juwan Johnson.
Conklin should get a boost with Zach Wilson back under center this week in place of the recently released Tim Boyle. While Wilson has been brutal for the team’s fantasy production and real-life record, he has shown that he can make Conklin fantasy-relevant. In his last two full games as the quarterback, Wilson connected with Conklin 13 times for 136 yards, including two catches on two red zone targets. Neither of those catches resulted in touchdowns, but the opportunities appear to be there for Conklin with Wilson running the offense.
The Texans have been one of my favorite stories in the NFL this season, and their turnaround is truly impressive. One area where they are still very beatable, though, is by opposing tight ends. So far this season, tight ends have averaged 6.75 catches for 62.1 yards per game against Houston.
In four of their last five games, the defense allowed over 50 yards to the position, including 100+ yards allowed to the Jags two weeks ago. Even though Conklin is unlikely to reach 100 yards, he doesn’t need to in order to be a great play at this price since he unlocks so much salary to go up and get other top options.
