Week 14 NFL DFS TE Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Cade Otton ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Otton emerged as one of the top tight ends in fantasy while the Buccaneers were dealing with some injuries at receiver. He racked up at least 21.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he had double-digit targets in each contest. He finished as a top-six scorer at the position in each contest, including one game as TE1.

Unfortunately, Otton has not been able to provide the same production since Mike Evans returned to the lineup. Evans has played in the past two games for Tampa, and Otton has finished with 4.0 and 6.0 DraftKings points. It’s definitely fair to question if he’s still a viable starting tight end, let alone one of the top options in fantasy.

Still, there are some positive underlying metrics to consider. Otton has still been on the field at one of the highest rates at the position. He’s posted a route rate of at least 88% in back-to-back games, and he’s at 88% for the year. Only Trey McBride has been on the field for a higher percentage of his team’s passing plays this season.

Otton’s target share also bounced back in Week 13. He saw seven targets vs. the Panthers, which he turned into four catches for 20 yards. The production obviously left a lot to be desired, but seven targets and a 20% target share are still well above average for the position.

Otton’s price tag has plummeted to $4,400 on DraftKings for this week’s matchup vs. the Raiders, and he has some clear buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s been priced as high as $5,500, and tight ends with a monthly salary change of at least -$1,000 have historically posted a +1.11 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).

The Raiders also represent an outstanding matchup. They’re merely 26th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Add it all up, and Otton stands out as one of the top options at the position.

Brock Bowers ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

The only question with Bowers at this point is can you afford him? He’s the clear top tight end in fantasy, and he’s finished as a top-six option at the position in six of his past eight outings. That includes three games of TE2 or better.

Since losing Davante Adams, Bowers has been an absolute monster. He’s racked up a 32% target share over his past eight outings despite catching passes from three separate quarterbacks. He’s been even busier recently, posting a target share of at least 41% in two of his past three games.

While the matchup is good for Otton, it’s arguably even better for Bowers. Tampa Bay is 29th in pass defense EPA for the year, besting only the Jaguars, Patriots, and Panthers. They’ve also allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends.

That brings us back to the original question – can you afford Bowers on this slate? It’s going to be challenging. There are some clear stud targets at running back, with Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley both in elite spots. It’s hard to prioritize a tight end over a running back, especially when there are some viable value options to choose from at the position.

The big x-factor here is the injury to Jakobi Meyers. He’s officially questionable for Sunday, and if he’s unable to go, Bowers could be even busier than usual. At a minimum, he’s an elite tournament option, bringing the highest ceiling at the position to the table.

---

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Juwan Johnson ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)

The Saints’ injury situation continues to go from bad to worse. At this point, they’re down Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Tasyom Hill at the skill positions, leaving the team with Alvin Kamara and a bunch of nobodies. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has given the team some decent production at receiver of late, but it feels extremely fluky.

Their best chance of moving the ball outside of Kamara might be their tight ends. Johnson and Foster Moreau have both provided value at times this season, so expect to see plenty of two-TE sets vs. the Giants.

Of the two, Johnson stands out as the clear top option. He played on 79% of the snaps last week and finished with a 19% target share, while Moreau was well behind in both areas. For the year, Johnson has been targeted on 15% of his routes run, while Moreau is at just 12%.

If Johnson is going to approach an 80% route participation vs. the Giants, he has a solid chance to provide value at just $3,400.

T.J. Hockenson ($4,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

Hockenson has played in the past four games for the Vikings after missing the early part of the year while recovering from knee surgery. He was one of the top pass-catching tight ends in football prior to tearing his ACL.

He hasn’t quite reached that level since returning to the lineup, but he’s been right on the borderline. His 68% route participation is less than what you’d expect, but with the Vikings sitting at 10-2, it’s not surprising that they’re taking a cautious approach. The more encouraging sign is that he’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run. That’s a strong figure, and it gives him plenty of room for growth if the team starts ramping up his routes.

The Vikings are solid home favorites this week in an exploitable matchup vs. the Falcons. Atlanta is merely 22nd in pass defense EPA this season, and Hockenson’s +4.0 Opponent Plus/Minus is one of the better marks at the position. Hockenson also grades out favorably in Sim Labs, checking in with the third-highest optimal rate at the position on DraftKings.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

David Njoku ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

The Browns are coming off an amazing performance last week vs. the Broncos. Jameis Winston finished with four touchdowns and nearly 500 passing yards, and all of his top pass-catchers ate. Jerry Jeudy had 235 yards and a score, Elijah Moore had 100 yards of his own, and Njoku scored two touchdowns. Of course, it wouldn’t be Winston without a couple of pick-sixes sprinkled in, which ultimately cost the Browns the win.

The Browns were without Cedric Tillman for that outing, and he’ll be sidelined once again in Week 14. That opens up a few additional opportunities for the rest of the pass-catchers. Winston has aired the ball out like few others this season – he’s third among starters in air yards per attempt – so all of his pass-catchers bring excellent upside to the table.

Njoku is priced at a discount compared to some of the top tight ends in fantasy, but his ceiling is pretty comparable. He’s an excellent pivot for tournaments.

Trey McBride ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

McBride is quietly having a really strong season. The only reason he hasn’t scored more fantasy points is because he still has zero receiving touchdowns. He’s managed to score twice – once on a rush, once on a fumble recovery – but he’s been unlucky when it comes to scoring through the air.

McBride’s utilization is among the best at the position. He’s first in both route participation and target share, and he’s third in air yards. He’s been extremely busy of late, racking up at least 12 targets in back-to-back games. He’s finished with at least 12 catches in both contests, and he’s averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game.

One of those outings was against the Seahawks, who he’ll face again on Sunday. Ultimately, no tight end stands out as more undervalued on DraftKings, where his ownership projection is roughly 2.5% lower than his optimal lineup rate.

Travis Kelce ($6,800 FanDuel)

Bowers and McBride may be the new gold standard at tight end, but Kelce has held the crown for a long time. He’s having another strong season in 2024, ranking sixth at the position in PPR points per game. He’s not quite as good as he used to be, but he’s still getting the job done at a solid rate.

Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce has assumed the role of Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target. He’s posted a 28% target share from Week 5 on, and he’s finished as a top-five option at the position in four separate weeks. His production has fallen off a bit of late, but his underlying metrics are still outstanding: he had a 30% target share last week vs. the Raiders.

Kelce’s price tag has also come down slightly, making him a strong buy-low target vs. the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. He’s only available on FanDuel, but he stands out as one of the most undervalued options at the position on that site. His ownership projection is 2% lower than his optimal lineup rate, and no other tight end is particularly close to that figure.