Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Kamara remains the safest investment in all of fantasy. The Saints are barren at the skill positions, losing Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and now Taysom Hill to injuries. It leaves the team with virtually no reliable options to lean on except Kamara.
Unsurprisingly, the team has leaned on Kamara heavily. He played on 85% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he racked up 74% of the team’s carries. He ultimately finished with 23 carries vs. the Buccaneers, which he turned into 112 rushing yards.
Of course, the running game is just half the equation with Kamara. He’s also an absolute stud catching passes out of the backfield. He has a 23% target share for the year, which is easily the top mark in the league at the position. Kamara has at least six targets in eight of his past nine outings, so he has one of the most desirable workloads in all of football. With Hill no longer around to vulture touchdowns near the goal line, there isn’t a single area where Kamara doesn’t excel.
Additionally, Kamara takes the field in a phenomenal spot. He’ll be facing off with the Giants, whose season is all but over. They have nothing to play for, and their injury report currently reflects that. They’ve already placed their best defender on injured reserve, and a few other key contributors look unlikely to suit up.
The Saints are favorites in this contest, and Kamara has absolutely smashed in that split historically. He’s averaged 21.17 DraftKings points per game as a favorite, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.76 (per the Trends tool). This season, he’s averaged 22.73 DraftKings points in his three games as a favorite, including more than 30 DraftKings points in his last occurrence.
Add it all up, and Kamara is the clear top choice at the position this week.
Isaac Guerendo ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Kamara is the clear top pay-up option at RB, but Guerendo is the No. 1 value. He’s expected to take over in the 49ers’ backfield following injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason last week. Both players have landed on IR, leaving Guerendo with limited competition for touches.
What we’ve seen from Guerendo this season has been extremely impressive. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per carry on limited attempts, and he also has an elite athletic profile. Very few running backs in football can match his combination of size and speed:
With a full-time workload, Guerendo could very easily eclipse 100+ yards and a touchdown. He’s had 10+ carries in two games this season, and he’s responded with 99 and 85 rushing yards in those contests. Add in a few additional opportunities, and he can definitely pay off his current price tags.
The matchup vs. the Bears is also a good one. Chicago has a strong defense, but they’re significantly better against the pass than the run. They’re merely 22nd in rush defense EPA, and the Lions shredded them on the ground on Thanksgiving. They’ve allowed an average of 158.2 rushing yards in six games since the bye week, so this is a fantastic spot for Guerendo to provide value.
Saquon Barkley ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)
It’s going to be tough to pay up for Kamara and Barkley, but it’s possible. Using both is definitely doable on FanDuel, where you have more salary cap space to work with.
It’s something that you should strongly consider doing. Barkley has been absolutely unstoppable all season, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and 124.9 yards per game. Even in a tough matchup vs. the Ravens last week, he still managed to rack up more than 100 yards and a touchdown. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five outings, and three of those have been massive performances. He absolutely torched the Rams for 49.2 DraftKings points in prime time, and he had at least 36.8 DraftKings points in two others.
I have no idea how the Panthers are going to slow this monster down. They’re No. 31 in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Eagles are massive 13-point favorites. In other words – it’s the best running back in fantasy in the best possible spot.
Barkley has been a different level of beast throughout his career as a favorite. He’s averaged 24.73 DraftKings points per game, good for an average Plus/Minus of +6.64. With the Eagles specifically, those figures increase to 26.24 and +9.16.
Barkley is going to set you back quite a bit on this slate, but it’s hard to say he isn’t worth it. I still give Kamara a slight edge if you can only afford one, but Barkley has legit slate-breaking potential.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
D’Andre Swift ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Guerendo should get most of the attention at RB in 49ers-Bears, which could result in Swift being a bit undervalued. Some people don’t like to use two running backs from the same game, which would leave Swift as the odd man out.
I have no problem playing both guys in this spot. Roschon Johnson seems unlikely to suit up after suffering a concussion vs. the Lions. He’s yet to return to practice and is still in the concussion protocol, giving Swift the potential to see most of the touches in the backfield. Swift hasn’t had a great first year in Chicago, but that would give him a significant boost.
The 49ers have also been a fantastic matchup for running backs. They’re 28th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to the position. They were absolutely shredded by the Bills on the ground last week, with Buffalo racking up 220 yards and three rushing scores.
The only real concern here is that Swift is also dealing with an injury. He’s missed practice to start the week, so his availability on Friday will be key. If he’s also ruled out, it would open the door for Travis Homer and Darrynton Evans to enter the value-play conversation.
Tony Pollard ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Pollard started the year in a committee with Tyjae Spears, but he has cemented his status as the team’s clear No. 1 option in the backfield. Even with Spears back in the lineup last week, Pollard played on 72% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled 73% of their carries. That number wasn’t great in a blowout loss vs. the Commanders, but it’s promising for his utilization moving forward.
Pollard also remains very involved in the passing attack. He has a 15% target share for the year, and he’s been at 17% or higher in three of his past four outings. That includes last week’s game. Even with Spears back in the fold, Pollard had six targets vs. the Commanders to Spears’ zero.
The game script should be a lot more favorable this week vs. the Jaguars. They were down big early last week vs. the Commanders, but they’re favorites in Jacksonville. He’s only been a favorite in three games with the Titans this season, but he’s averaged a solid +2.80 Plus/Minus in those outings.
Bucky Irving ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Buccaneers are another team that is expected to take care of business this week. They’re favored by nearly a touchdown at home vs. the Raiders, which puts Irving squarely on the DFS radar.
The Buccaneers have split the touches between Irving and Rachaad White pretty evenly for most of the year, but Irving has been the superior between-the-tackles grinder. He earned 64% of the carries last week vs. the Giants, while White lagged well behind at 28%.
That makes Irving the most likely beneficiary of the matchup. If someone is going to be killing the clock late, it’s Irving who will likely have the responsibility. He’s ultimately showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at the fourth-highest frequency at the position on DraftKings.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
De’Von Achane ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Achane brings a similar skill set to the table as Kamara, albeit with more competition for touches. He’s also not quite the same workhorse as a runner, but his utilization as a pass-catcher is phenomenal. He’s coming off nine targets last week vs. the Packers, which he turned into eight catches, 56 yards, and a score.
His matchup this week vs. the Jets is favorable. The Jets have struggled to defend the run all season, and the Dolphins are sizable home favorites. Achane has posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.95 as a home favorite throughout his career, including a +7.00 mark so far this season.
That said, Achane isn’t expected for nearly the same ownership as some of the other top options on this slate. His optimal rate is higher than his projected ownership across this industry, making him an ideal target for tournaments.
Aaron Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
There are some reasons to be concerned with Jones this week. His workload took a hit in Week 13, racking up just a 51% snap share and 33% carry share. Cam Akers and Ty Chandler both got into the mix, so it’s possible that this is more of a committee moving forward.
Still, it’s also possible that it’s just a one-week aberration. Jones has been the team’s bell-cow back for most of the year, and he’s been their most efficient runner. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per attempt, and while that’s not quite as good as he was in Green Bay, it’s still the best mark among the team’s running backs.
The Vikings are another sizable home favorite on this slate, so it’s possible that Jones bounces back vs. the Falcons. He’s projected for less than 10% ownership, but he has some upside.
James Conner ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
I feel like I write the same blurb about Conner basically every single week. He’s almost never as appreciated as he should be for fantasy purposes, and he stands out as a reasonable target once again this week vs. the Seahawks. Seattle hasn’t been bad defensively this season, but they also haven’t been particularly good: they’re merely 17th in rush defense EPA.
Conner remains the Cardinals’ clear top option in the backfield, and he’s racked up a 60% carry share and 10% target share for the year. He also gets the majority of the short-yardage opportunities, so he checks all the boxes you look for in a fantasy running back.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,700 FanDuel)
The Chiefs and Chargers will square off on Sunday Night Football in what should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the week. It will mark Pacheco’s second game back from injury, and he handled 44% of the team’s carries in his first outing.
Kareem Hunt has done his best in Pacheco’s stead, but it’s clear that Pacheco is the more effective player at this point in their careers. He should continue to carve out a big workload moving forward, and it’s possible that happens this week vs. the Chargers.
Pacheco was priced significantly higher than this before getting injured, and he was above $8,000 for last week’s matchup vs. the Raiders. That makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate vs. the Chargers. The most likely scenario is a gradual ramp-up in carries, but if he is thrust back into a bell-cow role, he brings significant upside to the table.
Editor’s note: After this article was submitted, Breece Hall was listed as doubtful. Check the Player Models for updates.
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