Week 14 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Sam Darnold ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

It may not always be pretty with Darnold, but he’s gotten the job done more often than not for fantasy players this season. He’s the No. 9 QB in terms of fantasy points per game, and the truly poor games have been few and far between. He had single-digit fantasy points against Jets and Jaguars, but he’s had at least 15.62 DraftKings points in his other 10 outings. That includes at least 19.6 in four of his past five, good for a positive Plus/Minus in each.

That alone makes Darnold worth considering at $6,100, but he also draws a positive matchup vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has been defensively challenged against the pass this season, ranking 22nd in dropback EPA. They’ve also allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

From a Vegas standpoint, the Vikings’ have the fourth-highest implied team total on the main slate at 25.5 points. They’re also 5.5-point home favorites, and Darnold has done some of his best work as a home favorite this season. He’s scored 17.26, 22.0, and 19.6 DraftKings points in three starts when favored in Minnesota (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Darnold leads all quarterbacks on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him the top choice for cash games across the industry.

Kyler Murray ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Murray is another potential option in the same price range. His projections don’t grade out quite as favorably as Darnold’s, but it’s pretty close.

Darnold gets the edge from a matchup standpoint, and he’s also been the more consistent producer this season. However, Murray has more upside due to his rushing ability. He’s having another solid season with his legs, racking up 35.7 yards per game with four scores through his first 12 contests.

Quarterbacks that can provide value on the ground are known as the fantasy “Konami Code” for a reason. Rushing production is inherently more valuable than passing production. There’s a reason why the best quarterbacks in fantasy all bring something to the table with their legs.

Murray hasn’t had his best fantasy season, but he’s still capable of putting up huge performances. He’s four games with at least 25.1 DraftKings points, and he’ll take the field as a home favorite Sunday vs. the Seahawks. That has historically been one of Murray’s best splits, averaging more than 22 DraftKings points per game. He’s made just two starts as a home favorite with a comparable salary, and he’s averaged a whopping +7.89 Plus/Minus.

The Seahawks aren’t an elite matchup, but they’re good enough to target Murray at this price tag. He’s been as high as $6,900 this season, so $6,000 represents a clear buy-low opportunity.

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Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

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Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Will Levis ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

While Murray and Darnold are underpriced, Levis is basically free. He’s priced at just $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel, making him one of the cheapest quarterbacks across the industry. To put it in perspective, only Drew Lock and Aidan O’Connell are cheaper on DraftKings, while only Lock is cheaper on FanDuel.

Levis has more than just his price tag working in his favor on Sunday. He draws a matchup vs. the Jaguars, who have been a goldmine for opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to the position, and they’re last in the league in pass defense EPA by a comical margin. The gap between them and the Patriots – who rank 31st in pass defense EPA – is larger than the gap between the Patriots and the 13th-ranked Cowboys.

Levis is also playing some of his best football at the moment. Since returning to the lineup, he’s thrown for multiple touchdown passes in three of his past four outings. He’s also averaged 240 passing yards per game and 8.78 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s ultimately finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in two of his past four outings, so he’s clearly underpriced in an elite matchup. Only Darnold and Murray are showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency on DraftKings.

Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

If you’re going to pay up at quarterback this week, Allen stands out as the best option. He’s listed as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 49.5-point total, and the Bills are implied for 26.25 points. Overall, it suggests a back-and-forth game with offense on both sides, which tend to be the best for fantasy purposes.

Allen is capable of doing damage in so many different ways. He only threw the ball 17 times last week vs. the 49ers, yet he still managed to get to 28.42 DraftKings points. Of course, he’s not going to score a receiving touchdown every week, but he remains extremely capable of taking one in with his legs. He has seven rushing touchdowns through 12 games this season after scoring 15 times on the ground last year.

The Rams also represent a solid matchup. They’re 23rd in dropback EPA, so opposing QBs have had success when taking to the air against them. He stands out as underpriced at $8,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a position-best 80% Bargain Rating. He’s also projected for less ownership than his optimal lineup rate suggests, making him a viable option for tournaments.

Caleb Williams ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Williams has had an up-and-down rookie season, and unfortunately, the downs have mostly outnumbered the ups. However, he has played significantly better since the team made the decision to switch up their play-caller. He’s scored at least 26.14 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he nearly engineered an impressive comeback on Thanksgiving vs. the Lions. If not for some awful clock management down the stretch, his team should’ve at least had the opportunity to try for a game-tying field goal.

Williams’ coach was fired after that contest, and that should provide the players with a breath of fresh air. I don’t think I’m going out on a huge limb by saying Matt Eberflus wasn’t well-liked in that locker room.

Williams is using his legs more often, rushing for at least 33 yards in three straight games, and his pass-catching corps remains extremely dangerous. He’ll take on a 49ers team that has struggled defensively of late and could be without some key defensive players once again. Ultimately, his price tag has yet to catch up to his production, so he has some viability on this slate.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Brock Purdy ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

On the other side of that matchup, Purdy stands out as a prime buy-low candidate on DraftKings. He’s coming off a brutal matchup last week vs. the Bills, but playing a night game in Buffalo is never easy.

For most of the year, Purdy has been a pretty consistent source of production. He scored at least 19.36 DraftKings points in five straight before losing to the Bills, so he continues to put up decent numbers despite the team struggling as a whole.

Even with Christian McCaffrey back on the sidelines, Purdy still has plenty of offensive talent to work with. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings is an excellent top three, while Isaac Guerendo is an intriguing backfield option. Purdy is projected for less than five percent ownership in this spot, but his optimal lineup rate is greater than seven percent on DraftKings. That’s the largest discrepancy at the position, making him the most underappreciated QB of the week.

Geno Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Smith has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. He started the year pretty hot, but he’s finished as QB20 or worse in four of his past five outings. That includes his first matchup vs. the Cardinals, where he scored just 13.36 DraftKings points at home.

However, Smith still has plenty of upside. In his most productive recent game, he finished with 28.12 DraftKings points, making him the fourth-highest-scorer at quarterback for the week. He has an elite pass-catching duo at receiver in DK Metcalf and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and the Cardinals’ secondary is not a unit you need to fear. The total on this game isn’t quite as high as we would’ve expected a few weeks ago (44.5), but both of these teams are capable of scoring points. It should shock no one if this game turns into a sneaky shootout.

Justin Herbert ($7,500 FanDuel)

Herbert is only available on FanDuel, which includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs. However, he stands out as one of the most undervalued options on that site. No QB has a larger discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal rate in Sim Labs.

Herbert got off to a slow start this season, but that was mainly due to the team’s offensive philosophy. They went extremely run-heavy through their first six games, but they’ve opened things up a bit more recently.

They’ll likely have to do the same vs. the Chiefs, who have been a funnel defense this season. They’re fourth in rush defense EPA but just 21st against the pass, so the Chargers’ best chance in this matchup is to let Herbert air it out.

Herbert has historically fared well in matchups vs. Patrick Mahomes. He’s averaged 23.29 DraftKings points in seven career matchups vs. Kansas City, and that number would be higher if not for their first meeting this season. Herbert had just 11.16 DraftKings points in that matchup, but he was at far less than 100% in that contest.