The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 14!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
- On the year, the New York Jets rank 29th in the league in pace of play (measured by seconds per play) and 27th in pace of play in neutral situations. Incredibly, in Week 13 they finished with 91 offensive snaps, which wasn’t just the highest mark of the week — it was the highest mark of the entire season. Perhaps they’re playing faster, or perhaps that was an anomaly. I’ll let you decide.
- DeAndre Hopkins leads all offensive skill players over his past four games with 284 offensive snaps. He’s been incredibly consistent: He’s averaged a +5.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, and he hasn’t been below nine targets since early October. Finally, he’s one of only six players with 30 percent or more of his team’s targets over his past four games. Even with a slate-high price tag in Week 14 of $8,500 and Tom Savage as his quarterback, those marks are impossible to ignore, especially against a fast-paced 49ers squad.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
- Browns head coach Hue Jackson promised to feature Josh Gordon in Week 13, and he didn’t lie: The stud WR received a team-high 34.4 percent of the team’s targets. He caught only four of those from Deshone Kizer but still managed 85 receiving yards and 12.4 DraftKings points. He’s a little more expensive in Week 14, but he also has a much easier matchup against a Packers squad that ranks 21st in pass defense. Elite talent + elite market share numbers = a chalk lock.
- Blake Bortles and the Jaguars are the most run-heavy team in the league this year, but they’ve thrown it a bit more lately and sit average in run/pass ratio when at home. They’re at home in Week 14, and they could have to put up some points against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook lead the team in target share over their past four games, both getting over 25 percent in Week 13. They’re cheap at $5,500 and $4,200, respectively, and they should be low-owned: They’re projected for ownership of only two to four percent on DraftKings.
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
- Rob Gronkowski was second to only Miami’s Kenny Stills in Week 14 with 64.0 percent of his team’s Air Yards. Since he’ll sit out this week, there will be many high-leverage targets to be distributed elsewhere. Brandin Cooks may not get a lot more targets than usual, but he could get valuable ones: He led the Patriots with 62.0 percent of the Air Yards just three weeks ago before Gronk took the lead over the past two games. Unfortunately, the Pats are included only in primetime slates this week.
- The Bears are 28th in pass DVOA to WR1s, and A.J. Green has gotten massive volume lately. He leads the league in market share of Air Yards over the past four games, and he’s gotten 57, 57, and 59 percent of his team’s over the past three. If Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Tyreek Hill become popular due to their recent excellent performances, it could make the market share stud in Cincinnati an elite play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
- It was thought that perhaps the return of Aaron Jones could take away work from Packers RB Jamaal Williams. That clearly was not the case, as Williams finished with 21 carries and three targets that he turned into 123 yards and a touchdown. He’s second among all running backs over the past four games with 78.4 percent of his team’s rushes after getting 90-plus percent each of the past two weeks. He’s still affordable at $5,900 on DraftKings and should be low-owned given potential value options like Giovani Bernard.
- Speaking of the North Carolina stud, he’s currently projected for slate-high 31-40 percent ownership, as he could be the guy in Cincinnati if Joe Mixon is unable to suit up with a concussion. Gio will get his usual work in the pass game, but he could also get work between the tackles: He finished with 13 carries last week after Mixon went down. No other RB got a touch. He does face a decent Chicago run defense, but he’s also just $3,100. He’ll essentially be a free square if Mixon is out.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
- The co-leaders in opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games are . . . Latavius Murray and Bilal Powell with nine a piece. Right below them sits Rex Burkhead, who has five carries and two targets inside the 10 over the past two games. Cooks may get the high-leverage targets with Gronk out, but Burkhead may get the valuable red zone looks.
- The Chargers have been busy inside the 10-yard line over the past four games, as both Melvin Gordon (eight) and Keenan Allen (six) rank in the top-15 in opportunities over that time frame. To put those numbers in perspective, over their past four games, the Chiefs have run THREE total plays inside the 10-yard line — one a piece to Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill. The Chargers are currently implied for a slate-high 26.0 points against the Redskins.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
