Welcome to the Week 14 Vegas lines deconstruction. If you’re unfamiliar with what we do in this piece, here’s the gist:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
In the below tables you’ll see a column labeled “Matchup %.” That number takes the percentage of total points an offense has scored in a specific way, such as through passing touchdowns, and averages it with the percentage of total points the opposing defense has allowed for that same scoring type.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit the implied team totals. To do that, we apply the “Matchup %” to the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points. These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in-game points derived from the implied team totals.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Also, visit the Vegas page for any line movement. At the time of this writing, there are no lines for the Detroit-Tampa Bay or Indianapolis-Buffalo contests, so I’ve included the matchup rates without an implied total or projection. Let’s jump into the Week 14 deconstructions.
Passing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Passing Touchdown Points Rate: 40.5 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on December 5.
It’s All Brady
The way to play New England in Week 13 proved to be the ground game, and Tom Brady didn’t pay off his high salary as the fifth- and sixth-highest owned quarterback on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Easily the highest-priced quarterback of Week 14 (albeit not on the main slate), Brady is without Rob Gronkowski in Miami. Vegas doesn’t see this as an issue; New England easily paces the field with the top team total on the slate. The matchup is ripe for a bounceback, and Brady threw three or more touchdowns in three straight games before his Week 13 dud. Gronkowski being out also opens up some interesting stacking options like Rex Burkhead and Danny Amendola. While Patriots stacks will always be popular, price and last week’s performance might create more of an opportunity to differentiate with the obvious.
Houston Hosting the 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo had a solid first start with San Francisco, and the 49ers now head to Houston, where Tom Savage is coming off a career-high 365 passing yards. Savage’s big day came on account of negative game script and 49 attempts, but Vegas has the Texans as just three-point favorites, almost certainly due to Garoppolo’s presence. Both defenses in this game allow passing points at a rate higher than league average, and both teams have quirky offensive rates. San Francisco has the league’s second-lowest rate, which is probably not a good representation of their offense with Garoppolo under center, while Houston still has the fifth-highest rate, which is in large part due to Deshaun Watson. The defensive rates and the close line suggest there’s some potential for more scoring than might be expected. Stephen Anderson and Trent Taylor are a couple cheap options who could benefit, and both of the quarterbacks come in with low price tags.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Rushing Touchdown Points Rate: 19.9 percent
New Orleans at the Top Again
I’ve refrained from writing up the Saints running backs every week, but this isn’t a great week for projecting rushing scores, and it’s worth diving into the degree of their touchdown equity. Mark Ingram is tied for the NFL lead with 12 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, and his seven touchdowns in that area are two clear of any other player. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara has four rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 in just the last six weeks alone. It can be hard to grasp that two backs on the same team each carry elite scoring potential, but that’s what the usage suggests. Despite this, and due to rising price tags, they are almost never heavy chalk: Neither back has averaged 20 percent ownership since Week 7. The prices seem sky high if you think of them as committee backs, but they are easily the top scoring threats for a strong Saints offense. In the last four games, Kamara and Ingram have combined for seven performances of 24 or more DraftKings points. They clearly have the upside to pay off.
The Frank Gore Conundrum
I always hate the idea of playing Frank Gore. Last week was just the fourth time this year he averaged at least four yards per carry in a game. He has more than 17 carries in just one game this year, and he’s averaging just 1.7 receptions per game. All of that out of the way, Indianapolis easily projects for the best rushing touchdown percentage, and Gore comes in at $3,900 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. He’s an affordable option with an established workload. The one thing we don’t yet know is whether Tyrod Taylor will play, which will impact what the line will look like. Keep tabs on the Vegas dashboard, because if the Colts are favored then Gore’s in plug-your-nose consideration against an awful run defense. His ceiling is usually capped, but if he has one last strong game in him, this is the situation for it.
Kicking Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 33.0 percent
The Butker Did It
Harrison Butker had a nice run of production earlier this year, but he was quiet throughout November as the Chiefs offense struggled. Kansas City showed some life in Week 13 and now has a solid team total against a beatable Oakland defense that allows kicking points at a rate 3.7 percentage points above league average. Butker’s price has dropped back down to $4,800, which makes him appealing if you can’t find the salary to get up to top-projected kicker Greg Zuerlein.
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz, where he authors the weekly column Stealing Signals.
