The Wide Receiver Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 13 is here, and with it comes seven divisional showdowns with playoff stakes on the line. The main slate will be without Dez Bryant‘s Thursday night showdown with Josh Norman, and everyone will have to wait yet another week to roster any Steelers, as they’re taking on the Bengals Monday night. Sunday’s slate consists of zero games with a game total over 49 points, so determining plus matchups and workload opportunities will be more important than ever. Be sure to consult our Market Share and Vegas line breakdowns to stay on top of all workload- and Vegas-related trends heading into Sunday.
Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 13-game DraftKings and 14-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
Antonio Brown and A.J. Green will face off Monday night, dwindling down the amount of high-priced receivers across the industry. Only two receivers are priced at $8,000 or higher on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week:
- Julio Jones ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
- Keenan Allen ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Two of the league’s perennially banged-up receivers have combined to miss zero games in 2017. Go figure.
Now, cryin’ won’t help you, prayin’ won’t do you no good, when the levee breaks, mama, you got to move
Mount St. Julio finally erupted, as Jones converted a season-high 15 targets into a 12-253-2 line despite facing “14 different coverages” from the Buccaneers last Sunday. The Vikings’ defensive game plan against Jones should be much more simple thanks to the presence of All-World corner Xavier Rhodes, who has more than held his own in shadow coverage against some of the league’s finest this season:
- Mike Evans: 12 targets, 7-67-0
- Davante Adams: 10 tgts, 5-54-1
- Antonio Brown: 11 tgts, 5-62-0
- Michael Thomas: 8 tgts, 5-45-0
- Josh Doctson: 7 tgts, 4-30-0
- Sammy Watkins: 4 tgts, 3-36-0
- Marvin Jones (twice): 5 tgts, 2-42-0; 9 tgts, 6-109-2
Of course, Marvin got the better of Rhodes on Thanksgiving, but the Vikings’ 6’1″ and 210-pound lockdown corner has proven to be more than capable of checking the opponent’s No. 1 option for the better portion of the last two seasons. Rhodes faced off with Julio as a second-year corner in 2014 and again in 2015, managing to hold one of the game’s most-talented receivers mostly in check :
Overall, Jones converted his 15 targets in two games against the Vikings into an 11-138-0 line. Still, it’s unlikely Rhodes’ presence will hinder Matt Ryan‘s confidence in his No. 1 receiver given Jones ranks among the top-seven receivers in both overall and red zone target share this season. The Falcons did a great job utilizing Jones all over the field last Sunday and will need to do so again versus a Vikings defense that had not allowed a receiver to surpass 20 DraftKings points in a game until last Thursday.
Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Jones’ tough matchup results in reduced ownership at various contest sizes. Analyze each game’s wide receiver/cornerback showdowns using our Matchups tool.
On we sweep with threshing oar, our only goal will be the western shore
After losing consecutive games and scoring a combined 30 points in Weeks 8 and 10, the Chargers have seemingly placed an emphasis on getting their best player the ball. Overall, Allen has converted a combined 27 targets over the past two weeks into a massive 23-331-3 line against underwhelming Bills and Cowboys defenses. This week’s matchup against the Browns’ 27th-ranked defense in pass DVOA could be tougher for Allen thanks to the presence of Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who leads all 33 full-time slot corners in yards and receptions allowed per cover snap. Jason McCourty, PFF’s No. 6 overall corner, also figures to see plenty of Allen when he lines up outside.
Still, this is the Browns’ 30th-ranked scoring defense; perhaps this is an instance in which individual matchups shouldn’t weigh our analysis too heavily. Boddy-Calhoun is undoubtedly a talented corner, but he’s surrendered 20-plus DraftKings points to the likes of Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, and T.Y. Hilton. Allen’s route running makes him a mismatch both in the slot and on the outside against nearly every mortal on the planet, and he could see an abundance of scoring chances against a Browns defense that’s one of just five units to allow at least 22 passing touchdowns this season.
Allen has been targeted on a league-high 20.7 percent of his snaps this season and could benefit from the likely absence of Mike Williams (knee, doubtful). Even if Williams does suit up, the slot is secure for the Chargers’ No. 1 receiver, and a slate-high 28-point implied total certainly bodes well for the scoring chances of the team’s most-targeted red zone receiver.
Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Allen with Philip Rivers on Sunday.
Fly Patterns
Brandin Cooks ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Cooks has converted an average of nine targets into a 6-102-0.7 line in three games without Chris Hogan (shoulder, questionable). His status as Tom Brady‘s No. 1 receiver gives him a solid weekly floor, but Cooks doesn’t come without risk. His salary hasn’t been this high since Week 2, and he has just three targets inside the 20-yard line this season. Cooks is more than a boom-or-bust receiver, but he’s certainly seen easier matchups than the duo of Tre’Davious White and E.J. Gaines – PFF’s No. 7 and No. 30 overall cornerbacks this season. Overall, the Bills are one of just seven defenses to allow three or fewer pass plays of 40-plus yards.
Adam Thielen ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) and Stefon Diggs ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): With at least five catches in every game this season, Thielen is this year’s most-consistent receiver and carries a weekly floor worthy of the slate’s fourth-highest salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Meanwhile, Diggs is the cheapest he’s been since Week 2 on DraftKings – but he’s healthy as can be. He’s had back-to-back tough matchups against the Rams and Darius Slay but enters Sunday with a far better matchup against the Falcons’ 28th-ranked defense in DVOA against WR2s. PFF’s No. 10 overall cornerback Desmond Trufant (concussion, questionable) is unlikely to suit up Sunday, and the whole Falcons secondary will have to deal with #DomeDiggs:
Stefon Diggs career indoors (13 games): 6.3/78.4/0.5 — 16.9 DraftKings PPG
Outdoors (22 games): 4.3/54.6/0.3 — 11.4 PPG.— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 28, 2017
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Nuk has scored at least 14 DraftKings points in nine of 10 games this season. His workload is as safe as it gets with Will Fuller (ribs, questionable) far from 100 percent. Hopkins has averaged 12.3 targets per game since Tom Savage took over under center, yet his salary on DraftKings is the lowest it’s been since October 1 (excluding his matchup with Patrick Peterson, which Nuk won). He’s set up well against the Titans’ 26th-ranked defense in DVOA, a unit he’s averaged 20.8 DraftKings PPG against during his career. First-round rookie Adoree‘ Jackson had moderate success shadowing Antonio Brown in Week 11, as well as T.Y. Hilton on the outside in Week 12. Still, Nuk is matchup proof – especially against one of just 20 cornerbacks to allow four-plus touchdowns this season.
Josh Gordon ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) and Corey Coleman ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Barring any funny business, Gordon will play his first professional football game since 2014. All he did during his short career was gain the most receiving yards ever by a 22-year-old (in just 14 games). Head coach Hue Jackson said Gordon will play “as much as he can handle.” Coleman doesn’t figure to be left behind, as Deshone Kizer has fed him an average of eight targets in his four full games this season. Still, the Chargers represent just about the worst possible matchup for the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense, as Casey Hayward (No. 1), Desmond King (No. 11), and Trevor Williams (No. 13) are three of PFF’s top-15 cornerbacks and power a defense with more interceptions (14) than passing touchdowns allowed (12). PFF’s top-two pass rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, will almost undoubtedly cause problems for Kizer, who has 21 turnovers this season.
Sterling Shepard ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Shepard was a full participant in practice Wednesday but should still be considered questionable with migraines. If he’s unable to suit up, Evan Engram will continue to work as the offense’s featured receiver. Of course, nothing will be familiar about this Giants offense, as someone other than Eli Manning will be under center for the first time since 2004. That someone is Geno Smith, who hasn’t started a game since 2014. Smith isn’t incapable of getting his receivers the ball, and a matchup versus the league’s worst defense in both overall and pass DVOA helps, but Shepard is grossly overpriced as the WR7 on DraftKings and boasts the worst Projected Plus/Minus in our Pro Models.
Devin Funchess ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Funchess saw a career-high 12 targets last Sunday, eliminating any concerns over his workload with both Greg Olsen (foot, questionable) and Christian McCaffrey healthy. His own toe injury is considered minor, and he’ll look to benefit from a vintage Cam Newton in the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, where Newton has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in each of his last four visits.The Saints’ fifth-ranked defense in pass DVOA is undoubtedly a better unit than the Panthers have seen in recent seasons, but they could once again be without Marshon Lattimore (ankle, questionable) and Ken Crawley (abdominal, questionable) – PFF’s No. 4 and No. 17 overall cornerbacks.
Tyreek Hill ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): It’s unwise to rely on Hill’s ridiculous home/away splits as gospel, but they sure are pretty. Per our Trends tool, Hill has averaged 18.9 DraftKings PPG with a +7.95 Plus/Minus while surpassing his salary-based expectations in 12 of 13 career road games. His dueling role as the team’s WR1/RB3 has resulted in an average of 6.4 touches per game, and now he’ll face one of just 10 defenses to allow at least 38 passes of 20-plus yards this season. Hill runs 33.9 percent of his snaps from the slot, so he should see plenty of reps away from the talented Morris Claiborne, who is yet to allow a touchdown on 44 targets this season.
Golden Tate ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and Marvin Jones ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Jones’ 6-109-2 line on just nine targets at the hands of Rhodes on Thanksgiving demonstrated his elite ability to make contested catches and find the end zone. He’ll need to bring his A game once again versus Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey, who are top-30 PFF corners and each stand at least 6’0″ tall. Tate has the far superior matchup against Lardarius Webb – the fifth-worst cornerback in yards allowed per cover snap through 12 weeks.
Davante Adams ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel), Jordy Nelson ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), and Randall Cobb ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Nelson has totaled 103 total yards, zero red zone targets, and zero touchdowns in Brett Hundley‘s five starts, while Cobb hasn’t surpassed 60 receiving yards since Week 1. Adams is clearly his new quarterback’s BFF, racking up eight-plus targets in four straight games – including team-high marks in red zone and deep-ball targets. The whole passing game has a great matchup versus the Buccaneers’ 30th-ranked defense in both pass and overall DVOA.
Sammy Watkins ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Cooper Kupp ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), and Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Watkins’ impending shadow date with Patrick Peterson should be avoided considering PP has allowed the fewest receptions per cover snap among full-time corners this season. Kupp’s salary has skyrocketed, but it’s warranted as the No. 1 receiver in the league’s second-ranked scoring offense. Overall, Kupp has 25 more targets than Watkins this season and is tied for third among all receivers with 17 red zone looks. Robert Woods (shoulder, doubtful) is unlikely to suit up.
Robby Anderson ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Anderson has scored a touchdown in five straight games and blew up by way of a 6-146-2 line against the seemingly sturdy Panthers secondary in Week 12. He’s run 54.4 percent of his snaps in the slot or as the offense’s left wide receiver — away from where Marcus Peters lines up. Anderson will likely see a mix of 32-year-old Darrelle Revis, as well as Terrance Mitchell and Steven Nelson, each of whom has allowed at least 1.5 yards per cover snap this season.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Fitzgerald would benefit from the absence of Nickell Robey-Coleman (thigh, questionable), who has allowed the third-fewest yards per cover snap among slot corners this season. The Cardinals’ ageless WR1 couldn’t overcome the Jaguars’ ridiculously-talented secondary last week, but Fitz is still averaging nine targets per game during Blaine Gabbert‘s two starts. Fitzgerald’s salary is yet to rise back to pre-Gabbert levels, and his historically great home/away splits give him a fighter’s chance at overcoming the league’s third-ranked defense in pass DVOA:
- Fitz at home since 2014: 16.98 DraftKings PPG, +3.47 Plus/Minus, 58.6% Consistency Rating
- Fitz on the road since 2014: 14.2 DraftKings PPG, +0.23 Plus/Minus, 40.7% Consistency Rating
Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), DeVante Parker ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Kenny Stills ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Landry’s career-high six touchdowns are largely thanks to nine targets inside the 10-yard line – the third-most in the league. Parker remains an out-of-this-world talent but hasn’t cleared 80 receiving yards or scored a touchdown since Week 3. Jay Cutler is back, meaning Stills’ time as a top-five fantasy receiver with Matt Moore on the field (per PFF’s Scott Barrett) is over. Landry draws the toughest matchup of the group against lockdown slot corner Chris Harris Jr., while Parker and Stills have winnable matchups against Bradley Roby and rookie Brendan Langley on the outside. No. 1 corner Aqib Talib is suspended for his scuffle with Michael Crabtree.
Rishard Matthews ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and Corey Davis ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): The Titans still consider Matthews day-to-day with a hamstring injury, although he appeared fairly close to being able to play last week. If he’s ultimately unable to suit up, Davis will once again work as the offense’s unquestioned WR1, although that role produced just four targets in Week 12 – his fewest in a full game this season. Davis is yet to find the end zone and hasn’t surpassed 50 yards since Week 1. Still, his matchup against the Texans at home is tough to ignore. They allowed an average of 22 points and 196 passing yards in Weeks 1-4 compared to 28.1 points and 271.3 passing yards per game since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5.
Marqise Lee ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Dede Westbrook ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), and Keelan Cole ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Allen Hurns (ankle, doubtful) still hasn’t returned to practice, so Westbrook and Cole are expected to once again work with Lee in the team’s 3-WR sets. The whole passing game is set up well against the Colts’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA that will likely be without No. 1 corner Rashaan Melvin (hand, doubtful). Melvin’s absence can’t be understated, as PFF’s No. 14 overall corner was largely responsible in holding Brown to a 3-47-0 line in Week 10. Blake Bortles will look to continue to ball out against a Colts defense he’s scored at least 17.9 DraftKings points against in six of seven career matchups.
The Model Wide Receivers
There are several wide receivers atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following five receivers standing out among multiple models:
- Mike Evans ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) and DeSean Jackson ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
- Demaryius Thomas ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
- Michael Thomas ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Famous Jameis Winston (shoulder, probable) is expected to be under center for the first time since Week 9. His per-game averages have been fairly brutal due to two injury-shortened games in which he threw a combined 23 passes, but he has managed to meet or surpass his career-high marks in completion rate, adjusted yards per attempt, and quarterback rating this season. Plenty of credit should be given to D-Jax, whose field-stretching ability has elevated the performance of his quarterbacks throughout his career. Evans has seen an additional 1.55 targets per game with Winston under center during his career and is due for positive touchdown regression considering he’s gone scoreless in four consecutive games – tied for the longest stretch of his career. Both receivers have top-eight Projected Plus/Minus marks among all wide receivers, and they have a great matchup against a Packers secondary that has allowed a slate-high 3.9 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations to the position over the past 12 months.
Paxton Lynch is out for 2-4 weeks with an ankle injury, so the Broncos will turn back to Trevor Siemian. It’s fair to believe Siemian isn’t the team’s quarterback of the future, but he’s almost undoubtedly a fantasy upgrade over both Lynch and Brock Osweiler – especially for Manny Sanders:
Sanders has outscored Thomas with only Siemian under center since joining the Broncos in 2014. Thomas still offers a safe floor, as he has at least five receptions in nine of 11 games this season. Sanders and Thomas have two of the three-highest projected ceilings among all wide receivers priced under $5,500 on DraftKings this week, and their matchup against the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked defense in both pass and overall DVOA certainly helps their cause.
In addition to having the best twitter handle in the NFC South, @Cantguardmike might just be the most-consistent receiver in a division full of studs. He’s caught at least five passes in all but one game this season and is the clear No. 1 receiving option for the league’s No. 4 scoring offense with a team-high 102 targets. The only thing Thomas hasn’t done this season is score a bunch of touchdowns, as he’s currently in a seven-game drought after never going more than two games without finding the end zone in 2016. He’s averaged just 0.63 red zone targets per game in 2017 after averaging 1.27 such targets last season. The Panthers’ 10th-ranked defense in pass DVOA is far from a pushover, but Thomas has historically had no problem with James Bradberry and Daryl Worley (foot, questionable). Overall, he’s converted his 18 targets in three career games against the Panthers into a combined 17-233-2 line. Thomas has a season-low $6,900 price tag on DraftKings and carries the highest projected ceiling/floor combination among all receivers priced under $7,000.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the wide receivers for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
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