The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
With last season’s Big 3 running backs suspended, hurt, and playing on Monday night, determining pricing inefficiencies and proper workloads is more vital than ever in Week 13. Be sure to consult our Market Share and Vegas line breakdowns to stay on top of all workload- and Vegas-related trends heading into Sunday.
Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is for the 13-game DraftKings and 14-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Two
With Le’Veon Bell playing on Monday night and off the main slate, only two backs are priced at $8,000 or higher on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week:
- Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Todd Gurley ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
The main slates in Weeks 12-13 have managed to feature two separate third-round rookies as the most-expensive back on DraftKings: 2017, man.
You’ve got to be Kamara’n me
Mark Ingram has either matched or exceeded Kamara in touches during each and every game this season, but all the electrifying rookie has done with his 12 touches per game is rank first and third among all running backs in yards per touch and fantasy points per opportunity, respectively. PFF’s No. 1 back in Elusive Rating has scored seven touchdowns over his past five games, and his 13 red zone targets are five more than the next closest Saints receiver. The front runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year converted just 11 touches into 188 total yards and two touchdowns against the Rams’ fourth-ranked defense in overall DVOA last Sunday.
There is no doubt Kamara is a sensational talent – but is he worthy of RB1 status on DraftKings? He’s made the most of his workload all season but still finds himself firmly entrenched in an (incredibly productive) timeshare with Ingram. The Panthers’ fifth-ranked defense in rush DVOA will be the toughest rush defense the Saints have faced all season, and they’re surely looking for redemption after New Orleans hung a season-high 149 yards on them in Week 3. Left tackle Terron Armstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury and should be considered questionable for Sunday. The Saints have remained the league’s No. 1 offensive line in adjusted line yards without starting right tackle Zach Strief, but the loss of Drew Brees‘ blindside protector would be bad news for everyone involved against All-World linebacker Luke Kuechly.
Kamara is among the top-six chalkiest running backs this week via our projected ownership in our Pro Models. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Kamara’s sky-high salary ultimately results in reduced ownership across various contests.
The Best Running Back in Los Angeles
Gurley racked up 154 total yards and a touchdown on 26 touches during the Rams’ Week 7 massacre over the Cardinals in London. The Rams’ fourth-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards regularly opened up holes against the Cardinals’ No. 4 ranked defense in rush DVOA, and Gurley was happy to make the remaining defenders look silly in open space:
The Rams have scored at least 27 points in every road game this season, excluding their Week 11 loss in Minnesota. Gurley still managed to score 14.6 DraftKings points in the offense’s worst showing of the season thanks to his fantasy-friendly role as the Rams’ goal-line and pass-down back. Overall, he ranks sixth among all running backs in targets and first in rushes inside the five-yard line.
Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.08. Jared Goff and Gurley’s fantasy production has a strong +0.43 correlation, which makes sense given the running back’s massive pass-game role. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Gurley with Goff on Sunday.
Up the Gut
LeSean McCoy ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Shady is expected to once again benefit from the absence of long-time vulture Mike Tolbert (hamstring, questionable). In addition to the potential for more goal-line carries, there are numerous factors working in McCoy’s favor:
- Shady has at least three receptions in all but two games this season, easing concerns over his workload if the Patriots jump out to a large lead.
- The Bills offense will once again roll with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback — good news for Shady considering his historical success with rushing quarterbacks, as well as his shared severe home/away splits with TyGod.
- Bill Belichick said this week that Shady can “make four guys miss in a phone booth.” Belichick would know, as McCoy has averaged 20.6 DraftKings PPG and a +6.3 Plus/Minus in three games against the Patriots since 2015 (per our Trends tool).
Melvin Gordon ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Gordon is set up well as a two-touchdown favorite at home against the league’s 30th-ranked scoring defense. Austin Ekeler has carved out a pass-down role that has resulted in an average of 10.7 touches per game since the team’s Week 9 bye, but Gordon is clearly the lead dog considering he hasn’t had fewer than 20 touches in three consecutive weeks. He gets a Browns defense that has allowed an average of 131.7 rushing yards in three games since their Week 9 bye.
Christian McCaffrey ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): McCaffrey didn’t practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury but returned Thursday and said he expects to be ready to roll for Sunday. You can monitor practice participation and estimated game statuses for all fantasy-relevant players with our Injury Dashboard. Even with McCaffrey expected to suit up, he’s failed to reach double-digit touches in as many outings (two) over the Panthers’ past two games as he did during Weeks 1-9. His $7,200 price tag on DraftKings ties his highest salary of the season, although he makes a reasonable stacking partner with Cam Newton at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football.
Tevin Coleman ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Devonta Freeman ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Freeman has cleared the concussion protocol, and head coach Dan Quinn confirmed Thursday that the league’s highest-paid running back won’t be limited Sunday. Coleman is best avoided (especially on DraftKings) at prices more reflective of a singular backfield. The backs’ 63/37 touch split in Weeks 1-9 favored Freeman – especially in the red zone. Overall, Coleman had seven red zone rushes in Weeks 1-9 but 13 in the three weeks Freeman was hurt. The Vikings’ eighth-ranked defense in rush DVOA has allowed an additional 5.0 PPG at home since 2016.
Kareem Hunt ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Hunt hasn’t scored a touchdown or surpassed his salary-based expectations since Week 3. He converted his 12 touches into 26 total yards in a smash spot at home versus the Bills last week, and the Chiefs’ sudden inability to move the ball on offense is alarming. With that said, the darkest hour is just before the dawn, and the same workload and on-field ability that made America fall in love with Hunt hasn’t gone anywhere:
- Hunt has averaged 18.6 touches per game over the past five weeks – a top-10 rate among all running backs.
- The Jets’ 21st-ranked defense in overall DVOA ranks worse than the Bills’ 19th-ranked unit he faced last week.
- We’re no longer forced to treat Hunt like a top-three back with his salary reaching its lowest point since Week 2.
- Hunt’s projected 9-12 percent ownership is significantly lower than his average of 26.4 percent this season.
Jordan Howard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Howard is one of the most game-flow dependent backs in the league thanks to the presence of both Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen, who have combined to average 43.7 snaps per game compared to just 27.7 by Howard since the Bears’ Week 9 bye. The Bears’ status as three-point home favorites against a 49ers defense that has allowed the third-most DraftKings PPG to opposing running back units bodes well for Howard’s chances at seeing more than 15 touches for the first time since Week 8. Still, a negligible pass-game role on the league’s 29th-ranked scoring offense gives him a low weekly floor. The potential absence of starting guard Josh Sitton (concussion, questionable) certainly won’t help. Analyze each game’s offensive and defensive line showdowns using our Matchups tool.
Leonard Fournette ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Fournette has lost his status as a three-down workhorse with the emergence of T.J. Yeldon, who out-snapped Fournette 34-28 against the Cardinals last Sunday; the Jaguars played from behind for most of the afternoon. Fournette has averaged 2.8 fewer touches per game since Yeldon has been activated, but any blowout-related workload concerns should be eased with his status as a 10-point home favorite. Still, the continued absences of Jermey Parnell (knee, questionable) and Patrick Omameh (quad, questionable) wouldn’t help, and Fournette’s price is a concern considering he has the second-lowest projected floor in our Pro Models among all running backs priced over $7,000 on DraftKings. He’ll take on an improving Colts defense that has allowed a -3.7 Plus/Minus and 16 percent Consistency Rating to opposing running back units since their Week 8 bye.
Lamar Miller ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Miller hasn’t surpassed 75 rushing yards in a game this season and has been limited in practice this week with a knee issue. Averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry, Miller has failed to provide his usual plethora of big plays. Overall, he’s had just one rush of 20-plus yards after having at least seven such rushes in each of the previous three seasons. Miller’s touchdown upside certainly isn’t great with Tom Savage under center, as the Texans have averaged just 15.0 PPG in Savage’s five starts compared to 34.7 PPG in six Deshaun Watson starts. Miller has a tough matchup against the Titans’ 3-4 defense built to stop the run with all three of their down linemen weighing 300-plus pounds.
Carlos Hyde ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): On the one hand, the elevation of Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback theoretically raises the ceiling of the league’s 28th-ranked scoring offense — and Hyde’s weekly scoring chances. On the other hand, there’s no guarantee Garoppolo will follow C.J. Beathard‘s lead of feeding Hyde 8.3 targets per game. Hyde averaged just 4.6 targets per game in Brian Hoyer‘s six starts. Without a high-receiving floor, it’s hard to love Hyde’s outlook against the Bears’ 12th-ranked defense in rush DVOA that has allowed 7.5 fewer PPG at Soldier Field since 2016.
DeMarco Murray ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) and Derrick Henry ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Murray missed practice Thursday with an illness but is tentatively expected to suit up Sunday. Head coach Mike Mularkey referred to both Murray and Henry as starters, although it’s clear one back hasn’t been holding up his end of the bargain on the ground since the Titans’ Week 8 bye:
- Murray Weeks 9-12: 10.8 rushes, 20.0 rush yards, 1.86 yards per carry, 0.75 touchdowns
- Henry Weeks 9-12: 9.8 rushes, 47.3 rush yards, 4.85 YPC, 0.25 TDs
Murray has caught 14 passes compared to just three by Henry during this span, rendering both backs low-ceiling/low-floor options due to their limited workloads while the other is healthy. They do have a plus matchup against a Texans defense that has allowed an additional 6.1 PPG since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5.
Dion Lewis ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Rex Burkhead ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), James White ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), and Mike Gillislee ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): There hasn’t been any indication from the Patriots that Gillislee will be activated, but perhaps Belichick finds the need to feed him a goal-line carry in a #RevengeGame. The Patriots’ three-man backfield has started to show its true colors since their Week 9 bye …
- Burkhead: 27.7 snaps, 12.3 touches, 51.0 total yards, 1.0 TDs
- Lewis: 25.0 snaps, 14.7 touches, 85.3 total yards, 0.66 TDs
- White: 15.3 snaps, 4.7 touches, 15.3 total yards, 0.33 TDs
It’s clear Burkhead and Lewis have benefited the most from the team’s new-look rotation. Both carry plenty of scoring upside with the Patriots’ 28.25 implied total, and they are set up well against a Bills defense that has allowed 145-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games.
Latavius Murray ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) and Jerick McKinnon ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Murray can’t stop talking about how healthy he feels, and the Vikings have rewarded him with 15-plus carries in six consecutive weeks. He’s scored five touchdowns in his last five games and ranks fourth among all backs in rushes inside the five-yard line this season. McKinnon has still been plenty involved with an average of 17.7 touches since Dalvin Cook went down for the season, and both backs have a great matchup against the Falcons’ league-worst defense in rush DVOA.
Kenyan Drake ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Damien Williams (shoulder) isn’t expected to suit up, leaving Drake and undrafted journeyman Senorise Perry (concussion, probable) to take on the Broncos’ league-best defense in overall DVOA. Of course, the Dolphins’ run game has struggled all season behind the league’s third-worst offensive line in adjusted line yards, and Drake’s 66-yard sprint to the end zone in Week 10 remains the team’s only rushing touchdown of the season. Drake should have plenty of touches, but it’s a brutal matchup, and his current projected ownership on DraftKings is tied for the second-highest mark among all running backs in Sunday’s main slate.
Marshawn Lynch ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Lynch didn’t surpass 14 carries during Weeks 2-11 but was promptly fed a season-high 26 touches, three targets, and 47 snaps during the Raiders’ Week 12 win against the Broncos. With the Raiders and head coach Jack Del Rio fighting for their playoff lives, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the offense continue to ride Lynch down the stretch. The absence of Michael Crabtree (suspended) and Amari Cooper (concussion/ankle, doubtful) might not leave them much other choice. Lynch is certainly in a good spot as a home favorite against a crumbling Giants team that has allowed at least 120 rushing yards in four consecutive games.
Alex Collins ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) and Danny Woodhead ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Collins has worked as the Ravens’ featured back for the better part of the last eight weeks, racking up an average of 16.1 touches since Week 5. The return of Woodhead hasn’t done anything to hinder Collins’ workload, as he played more snaps in Weeks 11 and 12 than he had in every game except one between Weeks 1-10. Rather, Woodhead’s return has caused a mini timeshare between him and Buck Allen, which has resulted in neither clearing eight touches in a game over the past two weeks. Sunday’s matchup against the Lions seems to possess positive game script for Collins, as the Ravens are 2.5-point home favorites. He has a good matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed an additional 8.4 PPG and 76.2 rushing yards per game since losing stud defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (biceps, IR) in Week 5.
The Model Running Backs
There are several running backs atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), with the following two backs standing out among multiple models:
- Jamaal Williams ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
- Adrian Peterson ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Williams’ status as one of the top backs in multiple models is dependent on the health of Aaron Jones (knee, questionable) and Ty Montgomery (ribs, doubtful). Jones has practiced in a limited fashion for consecutive days and may not be ready for a full workload even if active. He’s shaping up to be a true game-time decision. Jones’ presence would certainly reduce Williams’ projected touches, but it’s hard to see the Packers straying too far away from the guy averaging 115 total yards and a touchdown per game over the past two weeks. Williams currently carries the slate’s highest projected ownership and best Projected Plus/Minus under the assumption Jones is out, but he shouldn’t be entirely dismissed even with Jones active in a matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed an additional 7.2 PPG and 29.3 rushing yards per game on the road since 2016.
Peterson didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday due to a “neck” injury, but it’s thought to be more rest than anything. Offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin confirmed Thursday he expects AP to suit up Sunday. Fading a 32-year-old back averaging the second-fewest yards per carry of his career against a Rams defense that held him to just 21 yards on 11 carries in Week 7 certainly makes sense. And yet . . .
- Peterson is averaging 21.5 rushes per game over the past six weeks.
- Backup Kerwynn Williams cracked his ribs last week, and backup scat-back D.J. Foster doesn’t figure to offer much resistance to Peterson’s locked in early-down and goal-line work.
- This week’s matchups with the Rams comes in Arizona, not London. The Rams’ fourth-ranked defense in overall DVOA has a strong lean on the pass (No. 3) compared to the run (No. 19).
Peterson’s 26.5-point projected ceiling is the highest mark among all running backs priced under $6,500 on DraftKings this week, and he offers a potential GPP pivot away from higher-owned backs Drake and Williams. He’s the most-expensive running back with a Bargain Rating of at least 80 percent on DraftKings and gets a Rams defense allowing the second-most PPG to opposing running-back units this season.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
