In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tyreek Hill
- Courtland Sutton
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
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Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tyreek Hill ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 total)
Week-in and week-out, I’ve been highlighting WR1s matching up with the Washington Commanders. This week, we have the ultimate WR1 in Tyreek Hill, and his ceiling may truly be undefined. He has 25+ DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and has 30+ in five games this year.
The reasons to be optimistic about Hill this week are endless. Washington has allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, the most yards per target, and the highest touchdown rate. They also run a lot of Cover-1, and Hill averages a whopping 6.1 yards per route run against Cover-1. For the record, there are only eight receivers this year, averaging over two yards per route run.
Hill has the highest ceiling projection by over three points and is tied for second in Points/Salary despite the high price tag.
He’s the top option in our Tournament Model and is a priority in all formats in my opinion.
Courtland Sutton ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (+3) at Houston Texans (47.5 total)
Courtland Sutton was unable to find the end zone last week after finding paydirt in five straight games, and in seven of his last eight. On top of not finding the end zone, he caught only three of six targets for 61 yards. Denver was sitting on a comfortable lead for most of the game, so they didn’t need much passing volume.
He gets a matchup to be excited about this week, with Houston allowing the sixth-most yards per target to opposing perimeter receivers. They do run mostly zone coverage, while Sutton has just a 17% target rate per route run against zone compared to 26% against man coverage.
However, this is an enticing game environment, and Sutton is underpriced, ranking atop our models in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Deebo Samuel ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (48 total)
Deebo Samuel comes in a bit underpriced in one of the best game environments of the weekend. He had a strong showing on Thanksgiving, catching seven of nine targets for 79 yards, and taking four carries for 15 yards and a touchdown. He now gets a matchup with a Philadelphia defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
Samuel comes in $1,000 cheaper than teammate Brandon Aiyuk, which makes him a more appealing option. Samuel won’t be low-owned by any means, but his ownership is still in check to keep him in play.
He’s a strong play this weekend.
Josh Downs ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans (42.5 total)
Josh Downs‘ outlook has been much improved with Gardner Minshew under center compared to Anthony Richardson. Downs is coming off strong usage last week, seeing 13 targets. He couldn’t get much going, catching just five of them for 43 yards. Downs had a strong showing when these teams first played, catching six of six targets for 97 yards.
Downs ranks third in Projected Plus/Minus and is tied for second in Points/Salary. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers on the year, setting up Downs for a great outlook on Sunday.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Curtis Samuel ($4,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Washington Commanders (+9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (49.5 total)
Curtis Samuel showed out on Thanksgiving, following up four straight single-digit DraftKings point performances with a nine-catch, 100-yard performance on the holiday. Samuel has been a volume-earner when on the field, leading the receiving room in target rate per route run. He doesn’t run a route on every dropback, but Washington will likely have a lot of passing volume this week, as Miami is favored by nearly 10 points.
A lot of my lineups are going to have Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill, so looking for cheap plays with upside like Samuel is essential. He’s a great way to get exposure to this game stack, and he won’t see too much ownership. He also fits very nicely with my favorite quarterback of the week, Sam Howell.
