The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Joe Burrow vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
While the spotlight matchup between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts is sure to get plenty of attention in the late game, Joe Burrow offers a lower-cost alternative in his divisional game at home vs. the Steelers. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ, Burrow has the third-highest ceiling projection of all QBs on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel since that slate also includes Josh Allen from the Sunday Night Football game vs. the 49ers. Of that group near the top, he has the best Projected Plus/Minus on both sites since his salary is quite a bit lower.
Before the Bengals’ bye week last week, Burrow was on a nice roll and exceeded salary-based expectations in five of seven games on FanDuel. He finished with three straight games with three touchdowns or more and at least 250+ passing yards against the Raiders, Ravens, and Chargers. He had over 30 DraftKings points in each of those three games.
Getting Tee Higgins back at receiver gives him plenty of strong options at receiver, and the Bengals’ defense has struggled, which has given him plenty of chances to air it out.
The Steelers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs this season, but they allowed 200+ yards in eight straight games and a total of eight QB touchdowns over that span. Burrow didn’t face the Steelers last year, but in 2022 he totaled 693 yards and six touchdowns in two games against his division rival.
The Steelers have played some high-scoring games this season when they’re not in the snow, and this matchup in Cincinnati could give Burrow a chance to bring good leverage and produce a good number for a fourth straight week.
Top Value: Sam Darnold vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
The Vikings added Daniel Jones this week as a backup, but Sam Darnold is still the starter and a strong play vs. the Cardinals on Sunday at home. Darnold has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all QBs in the aggregate on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings behind only Justin Herbert, who has a 99% Bargain Rating on that site.
Darnold has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games on FanDuel. During that span, he averaged 18.9 FanDuel points and 19.3 DraftKings points. In those six games, he has averaged 267.7 passing yards per game with 10 total passing touchdowns. In his last two games, he has multiple touchdown passes and has posted 24.6 DraftKings points and 24.1 DraftKings points. He also had 22 DraftKings points in his last home start, which was back in Week 9 vs. the Colts.
The Cardinals have been a top-10 defense vs. QBs this season, but they did give up 250 yards and a score to Geno Smith last week. They have limited passing touchdowns but are giving up 219 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 20th in the league.
In the Vikings’ pass-heavy scheme, Darnold is a very solid value option with a high ceiling as the Vikings look to keep pace in the NFC North with the Lions and Packers, who both won on Thanksgiving.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Joe Mixon at Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Joe Mixon didn’t find the end zone last week in the Texans’ loss to the Titans, but he’s in a great bounce-back spot this week in Jacksonville. Mixon has the highest ceiling projection of all running backs on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He ranks in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as well.
Mixon was cruising before last week’s down game in which he managed just 14 carries for 22 yards and five catches for 23 receiving yards. His 9.5 DraftKings points were his lowest total since Week 2 when he left injured against the Bears.
He has 17.0 DraftKings points or more in all seven of his complete games this season except for last week’s and posted over 25 DraftKings points in five of those games.
Mixon gets a dream matchup against the Jaguars on Sunday. Opposing running backs have scored 16 touchdowns in 11 games against Jacksonville while averaging 103.8 rushing yards and 48.8 receiving yards per game. Before their bye week, the Jaguars were dismantled by the Lions’ “Sonic and Knuckles” duo, and Mixon should run wild against them as long as he gets a heavy workload again this week.
Our projections point to a monster bounce-back in this soft landing spot for Mixon in Week 13.
Top Value: Chase Brown vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
In our aggregate projections, Chase Brown has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs for this week, and he should bring good leverage too, since many will stay away from going against the Steelers’ defense.
Brown can be used as a stack with Joe Burrow since he does get involved in the passing game, but the rookie has been excellent as a stand-alone play as well since taking over the lead role in the backfield after the injury to Zack Moss (neck).
Brown originally broke through with two touchdowns and 23.2 DraftKings points back in Week 4 vs. the Panthers and posted over 19 DraftKings points in each of his last three games before the bye week. He ran for a season-high 120 yards and had 29.7 DraftKings points against the Raiders to start that stretch and followed that with 23.4 DraftKings points against the Ravens and 19.3 DraftKings points against the Chargers.
Since both the Chargers and Ravens are typically strong against the run, this matchup with the Steelers shouldn’t be too hard for Brown to overcome. In fact, the Steelers have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs in their last three games since their bye week.
Brown also has lower risk than many backs in his price range since he catches so many passes. He has at least five catches in three straight games and had nine catches for 52 yards in that high-scoring game in Baltimore in Week 10.
As the clear go-to option in Cincy’s backfield, Brown is a very cheap play with a high floor and high ceiling this Sunday.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $1500 deposit match.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua at New Orleans Saints – $7,600 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
The Rams came up short last Sunday Night Football against the Eagles but will look to bounce back this week as they travel to the Big Easy to face the Saints. Puka Nacua has the third-highest ceiling projection at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our aggregate projections. He also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites since he is expected to do so well relative to his salary.
Nacua missed games this season with a knee injury and was also ejected against the Seahawks. In each of the four complete games that he has played this season, he has exceeded salary-based expectations and has at least 98 receiving yards. In those games, he had at least nine targets and at least seven catches in each contest.
Last week against the Eagles, he had nine catches on 13 targets for 117 yards and 23.7 DraftKings points. He was even better the previous week against the Pats, finishing with 28.3 DraftKings points since he snagged his first touchdown of the season.
Nacua should continue to put up big numbers this week against the Saints. The Saints’ secondary has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points in the NFL to wide receivers this season and has given up over 200 yards to the position in three of their last four games with five receiver touchdowns over that span.
Of the top receiver options, Nacua has been the most reliable when available and has the potential to go off in his matchup vs. the Saints.
Top Value: Ladd McConkey at Atlanta Falcons – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
The Chargers rookie receiver has emerged as the go-to option for the Bolts, who had won four straight before losing on Monday Night Football to the Ravens. Ladd McConkey has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers on FanDuel and the seventh-highest on DraftKings. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and matches five Pro Trends on DraftKings.
McConkey has at least five catches in five of his last six games and has averaged 7.0 targets in the last eight games he has finished (one he left early with an injury). He has over 50 yards in five straight games, racking up 433 yards and two touchdowns over that stretch.
The Chargers typically don’t throw a ton, but with J.K. Dobbins (knee) out and Gus Edwards less of a big-play threat, McConkey could get some extra targets and opportunities this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
If you have to go even cheaper, David Moore and Brian Thomas have excellent Projected Plus/Minus as cheap plays on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Xavier Legette has the top Projected Plus/Minus of the receivers under $6,000, with Demario Douglas and Adonai Mitchell also standing out as affordable receiver plays.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Minnesota Vikings – $5,800 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Trey McBride has put up great numbers all season, and they’re especially impressive when you include the fact that he has only scored a single touchdown. McBride has averaged 14.8 DraftKings points per game on 6.1 catches for 68.5 yards per game. Last week, McBride had a season-high with 12 catches for 133 yards and 28.3 DraftKings points.
McBride has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in the FanDuel projections this week and the highest median and ceiling projections on DraftKings. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
His matchup against the Vikings isn’t great, but the potential for positive touchdown regression outweighs the risk in the matchup. The Cardinals’ passing game relies on him so much that he also brings a very high floor since he gets so much attention.
Top Value: TJ Hockenson vs. Arizona Cardinals – $4,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, T.J. Hockenson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the DraftKings projections. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and matches eight Pro Trends. On FanDuel, he’s more expensive but still ranks in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus.
Hockenson set a new season high with 114 yards and 21.4 DraftKings points against the Bears last week. He has nine targets in two of his last three games and is quickly becoming a go-to option for Sam Darnold.
The Cardinals have allowed at least four catches to tight ends in eight of their last nine games, and they gave up above-average games to Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, and even last week to A.J. Barner.
Hockenson and Darnold can make a solid value tandem to build your Sunday lineup around. They save you plenty of salary for stars in other spots but still give good correlation and upside.
