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Raybon’s Week 13 NFL DFS Breakdown: It All Starts With Patrick Mahomes & Christian McCaffrey

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 13 shmoney time.

Quarterback (Cash)

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK, $8,600 FD) vs. OAK

Patrick Mahomes destroyed the Raiders for 443 yards and four TDs back in Week 2 in Oakland. Now, he gets to face their 30th-ranked pass defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA at home in Arrowhead. Mahomes is the only QB at home with a FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus of at least +4.0 in our NFL Player Models, and per our NFL Trends tool, QBs who fit that trend have produced a 78% Consistency Rating and +5.22 Plus/Minus since the start of last season.

Running Back (Cash)

This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.

Week 13 shmoney time.

Quarterback (Cash)

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7,400 DK, $8,600 FD) vs. OAK

Patrick Mahomes destroyed the Raiders for 443 yards and four TDs back in Week 2 in Oakland. Now, he gets to face their 30th-ranked pass defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA at home in Arrowhead. Mahomes is the only QB at home with a FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus of at least +4.0 in our NFL Player Models, and per our NFL Trends tool, QBs who fit that trend have produced a 78% Consistency Rating and +5.22 Plus/Minus since the start of last season.

Running Back (Cash)