In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Nick Chubb
- Josh Jacobs
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Nick Chubb ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans (46.5 total)
Nick Chubb perfectly brings together the two things we’ve looked for out of running backs this season: a lot of volume, and a matchup with the Texans. Chubb has carried the ball 17 or more times in eight of eleven games this year and has seen multiple targets in six games.
Chubb is also a very efficient and explosive runner. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has a rush of 20+ yards in all but two games this year. He’s also a great bet to find the end zone, with 12 touchdowns on the year and three multi-touchdown games.
The matchup is as good as it gets, especially for a guy like Chubb. The Texans have allowed the most carries of 10 or more yards, while Chubb leads the league in those carries. They’ve given up 22.1 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, and they’re facing a league-high 28.2 carries per game.
Chubb is an explosive back with one of the highest ceilings at the position. In this type of matchup, it’s a no-brainer that he is the top back in our Tournament Model.
Josh Jacobs ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (49.5 total)
Josh Jacobs is riding high, coming off of one of the top fantasy performances by a running back that we’ve seen in a while. He carried the ball 33 times for 229 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning 86-yard touchdown in overtime. His passing-game usage was also elite, as he hauled in six of seven targets for 74 yards. All this added up to a monstrous 51.3 DraftKings-point performance.
He has six games of 20+ DraftKings points on the year, including four of 33+. He has at least 20 touches in all but three games this year, as he owns one of the most voluminous roles in all of fantasy. He has at least four targets in eight games this year as well, showing that he’s a big part of Las Vegas’ passing game as well.
Jacobs gets one of the holy grails of running back matchups, as the Chargers are allowing the second-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backs, third-most yards allowed before contact, and most yards allowed after contact.
He is nursing a calf injury, and he practiced in a limited fashion this week. He had the injury going into last week as well, so hopefully, he is able to go again. Jacobs is the top back in both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models and our Cash Game Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Kenneth Walker III ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Los Angeles Rams (40.5 total)
Kenneth Walker had a very inefficient game last week but was able to find the endzone twice to produce a relevant fantasy score. He carried the ball 14 times and saw a target, which shows he still has a solid workload even if he is running poorly. He ran for 26 yards on the ground and totaled 13 yards through the air.
The Rams have been stout against the run, but Walker is explosive and should see enough volume. Aaron Donald is out for Los Angeles, which is a big blow to their defense. They’ve only faced 39 carries with Donald not on the field, and they’ve given up 4.44 yards per carry on those carries.
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Chicago Bears (44.5 total)
Aaron Jones had a pretty inefficient game on the ground against a soft Eagles run defense last week, running for 43 yards on 12 carries. He had a good game through the air, catching three of four targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Jones gave way to AJ Dillon a lot on Sunday Night, but Jones is still very efficient with the ball and has the ability to create explosive plays.
The Bears have been a good matchup for Jones in the past, as he’s scored six times in the past four games against Chicago. Jones had a monster performance in Week 2 against Chicago, totaling 170 yards and two touchdowns. Chicago is allowing 4.83 yards per carry to backs and has given up 15 touchdowns on the year to running backs.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Detroit Lions (51.5 total)
Travis Etienne was forced out of last week’s game with a foot injury but seemed healthy enough to come back into the game. The Jaguars took a cautious approach with him, which makes us think there is a great chance he suits up this weekend.
With Etienne banged up and Darrell Henderson now on the roster, it’s unlikely we see Etienne near the 27 and 30 touches he saw in Weeks 8-9. However, the matchup is exploitable, and Etienne is explosive. Detroit gives up 4.74 yards per carry to opposing backs and has allowed a first down or touchdown on 25.9% of backfield carries.
Dameon Pierce ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+7) vs. Cleveland Browns (47 total)
Dameon Pierce has been turned into a non-factor for the Texans’ offense the past two weeks. He’s rushed 15 times for 16 yards and caught five balls for 17 yards. He has seen nine targets in the past two games, which is encouraging to see that he’s not entirely phased out of the game if the Texans struggle to run the ball.
He struggled in two straight difficult matchups but now gets a perfect spot against Cleveland. The Browns are 31st in yards allowed before contact and 30th in success rate against backfield attempts. They’ve also allowed a league-high 16 touchdowns to running backs, giving Pierce a solid chance of finding the endzone.
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