In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Justin Herbert
- Trevor Lawrence
- Kenny Pickett
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Las Vegas Raiders (49.5 total)
Herbert has started to turn the corner this season from a fantasy standpoint, scoring 28.76 and 20.7 DraftKings points in the past two weeks after only topping 20 DraftKings points once from Weeks 5-10. He requires a lot of passing volume, as the structure of the offense utilizes lots of short passes. Herbert only averaged 5.8 yards per attempt last week, but with him leading the league with 45.8 dropbacks per game, his volume can make up for the shorter passes.
Herbert tends to play well in easy matchups and struggles in difficult ones. He’s gotten two easy matchups the past two weeks and is slated to face a third this week in Las Vegas. The Raiders have given up the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks. Las Vegas has allowed nine QB1 scoring weeks this season, and Herbert has carved them up in the past. He threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, while combining for 605 yards and six touchdowns in their two matchups last year.
Mike Williams may miss again for Los Angeles, but between Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and Austin Ekeler, Herbert has more than enough weapons at his disposal. Herbert has one of the highest ceiling projections and is projected to be low-owned.
He is the top quarterback in our Tournament Model, as he looks like a nice target in those type of contests.
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Detroit Lions (51.5 total)
Trevor Lawrence had his best performance of the season last week, throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns against Baltimore in a 28-27 come-from-behind victory. His fourth quarter was remarkable, completing 15-of-19 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning two-point conversion.
Can Lawrence ride his hot finish into this week? The matchup should surely allow it. The Lions have allowed the fifth-most passing fantasy points, third-highest yards per attempt, and eight-highest touchdown rate to opposing signal callers. The Lions also give up the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence can surely make Detroit pay with his legs, as he’s more than capable of tucking it and running.
He now has posted 20+ DraftKings points in four of his last six games, and he’s fairly cheap in a game with the second-highest total of the weekend. He is projected to be one of the higher-owned quarterbacks on the weekend, but rightfully so. He is the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model, and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model. He also comfortably leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus.
Kenny Pickett ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons (42 total)
Kenny Pickett hasn’t been the most exciting quarterback from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s been consistent. He’s appeared in eight games, with six of them falling between 13-19 DraftKings points. He’s a cheap option who is more than willing to rely on his legs, with 10+ rushing yards in every game, including 20+ in four of his last five.
It is a little difficult to envision Pickett’s ceiling, as Pittsburgh doesn’t ask too much of him. He only had 174 yards on Monday Night, throwing no touchdowns or interceptions. His rushing production does make a ceiling attainable though. He has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game yet, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight games.
Pickett has faced a mostly difficult schedule of defenses but now gets a great matchup with Atlanta. The Falcons have the second-lowest pressure rate in the league, while allowing a 68.1% completion rate, and 7.5 yards per attempt. His stacking options are also very cheap, making him a potential target in tournaments. With Pickett putting up some reasonable performances against difficult defenses, it’s exciting to see what he could do in a good matchup.
Pickett is the top quarterback in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model this weekend.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (53 total)
Patrick Mahomes is essentially a fire-breathing dragon right now, with 300 or more passing yards in six straight games. Last week broke his streak of five straight games with 30+ DraftKings points, as he only racked up 22.4 against the Rams. Kansas City had six drives reach the red zone, with the Chiefs kicking four field goals, getting one touchdown on the ground, and Mahomes throwing one interception. It’s incredible that Mahomes only put up 22 DraftKings points last week.
It’s interesting to see how Kansas City’s offense and Cincinnati’s defense will attack this game, with Cincinnati’s adjustments in last year’s AFC Championship game essentially winning the game.
The Bengals defense is not what it was last season, though, so this is a chance that Mahomes explodes this weekend.
Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (44.5 total)
Jalen Hurts had a pedestrian game with his arm, completing 57.1% of his passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. He did have a field day on the ground, carrying the ball 17 times for 157 yards against the Packers. He posted one of his best fantasy performances of the season, with 32.82 DraftKings points. Hurts wasn’t utilizing his legs that much in the middle of the season but now has 243 yards and a touchdown on 33 carries in the past two weeks.
He gets a difficult matchup against Tennessee here, as they have a stellar run defense and have been better against the pass as of late. They’re allowing 6.3 yards per attempt since Week 7, after giving up 8.4 yards per attempt prior. Patrick Mahomes was able to post a big performance against Tennessee, but he threw the ball 68 times.
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (53 total)
Joe Burrow was a little bit of a letdown last week, putting up only 18.0 DraftKings points in a fairly hyped-up spot against Tennessee. He completed a season-low 59.5% of his passes, throwing just one touchdown. He still posted 270 yards through the air and ran for 32 more. The Chiefs defense has been getting shredded through the air, setting up for a nice spot for Burrow.
They’re giving up the third-most pass attempts per game, allowing the most fantasy points through the air. Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in Week 17 against Kansas City last year and another 250 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs.
Burrow is a nice option this week, as he is far cheaper than Mahomes in the same game environment.
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