The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 13!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
- Pittsburgh’s offense has been inconsistent this season, but it’s clear their studs at the skill positions can go off if given enough time. It’s thus no coincidence that they’ve put up points when they’ve sped up the game this year: They’ve gone for 76 and 74 offensive snaps over the past two weeks, and Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell got 74 and 72 in Week 12. The more snaps a defense has to deal with these guys, the more dangerous things get.
- Everyone is rightfully excited about the return of Josh Gordon in Cleveland, and it’ll be interesting to see how his presence affects the market share numbers for Corey Coleman, who led the team by quite a bit with 63 offensive snaps in Week 12. Gordon will reportedly play “as much as possible” against the LA Chargers, who rank sixth in pass DVOA this season.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
- We’ve written a lot about Julio Jones over the past couple days and for good reason: The dude put up the biggest DraftKings day in our Trends database with 53.8 fantasy points. It’s unlikely he’ll have a performance again this season even somewhat approaching that explosion, but he still stands out as the market share monster of WRs this season, ranking first with a whopping 35.7 percent of his team’s targets over the past four games. Fade him at your own risk for the rest of the season.
- Greg Olsen played just 24 snaps in his Week 12 return due to reaggravating his broken foot. Monitor his status via our NFL News feed, but the real story here is Devin Funchess, who seems to clearly be Cam Newton‘s No. 1 option for the time being. He received a week-high 50.0 percent market share of targets (12), and he caught seven of them for 108 yards. He has gone for 20.8 and 26.2 DraftKings points over his past two games and could face a Saints defense without Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley again.
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
- Over the last three weeks, Julio has gotten 64, 30, 58, and 68 percent of the Falcons’ Air Yards. He leads the league in that regard over his past four games. If he’s going to continue to receive a heavy volume of opportunities, and if those opportunities are going to be this valuable — again, he’s going to be a tough player to fade over the rest of the season.
- Right behind Julio in Air Yards over the past four games is Packers WR Davante Adams, who got an incredible 62 percent market share in Week 12. He’s had nearly 50 percent of his team’s Air Yards in three of the past four games, and he’s managed to post a +4.33 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over the last 10 games despite having Brett Hundley as his QB. Up next is a date with a Bucs secondary that ranks 30th in pass DVOA.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
- It’s unclear why the Eagles traded for Jay Ajayi, because it’s certainly not to give him the reins currently. In Week 9 (his first game with Philly), he got 23.5 percent of the carries and split the work with LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement, and Wendell Smallwood. That didn’t seem like a big deal because it was his first game and they had a bye in Week 10. But Week 11? He got just 22.2 percent of the carries to Blount’s 48.2 percent. Perhaps that was an outlier game? That doesn’t seem to be the case, as he got just 16.7 percent of the carries to Blount’s 62.5 percent in Week 12.
- It took a while, but Joe Mixon seems to finally be the Bengals’ workhorse back. In fact, over his past four games, he ranks third among all RBs with 85.5 percent of his team’s carries. He has gotten over 85 percent in each of his past two games, and he’s also getting work in the red zone of late. He leads the team with eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his past four games.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
- Latavius Murray might be sharing a backfield with Jerick McKinnon — they own rushing market shares of 55.5 and 39.8 percent over the past four games, respectively — but he’s definitely the guy in the red zone. He is tied for the NFL lead with nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his past four games, and he’s responded with four touchdowns over that time frame.
- Tevin Coleman has a top-five mark of eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his past four games, and the Falcons will likely feature him again in Week 13 if Devonta Freeman sits out again with a concussion. He does have a tough matchup against a Vikings squad that ranks eighth in rush DVOA, although that will lower his ownership even after a week in which he scored twice and put up 21.7 DraftKings points as the lead back.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
