Welcome to the Week 13 Vegas lines deconstruction. If you’re unfamiliar with what we do in this piece, here’s the gist:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
In the below tables you’ll see a column labeled “Matchup %.” That number takes the percentage of total points an offense has scored in a specific way, such as through passing touchdowns, and averages it with the percentage of total points the opposing defense has allowed for that same scoring type.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit the implied team totals. To do that, we apply the “Matchup %” to the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points. These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in-game points derived from the implied team totals.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Also, visit the Vegas page for any line movement. At the time of this writing, there is no line for the Tampa Bay-Green Bay tilt, so I’ve included the matchup rates without an implied total or projection. Let’s jump into the Week 13 deconstructions.
Passing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Passing Touchdown Points Rate: 40.8 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on November 28.
Can Derek Carr Thrive Without His Top Weapons?
With Michael Crabtree suspended and Amari Cooper looking doubtful, Derek Carr could be without his top two targets in a home matchup with a Giants team that just benched its franchise quarterback. Carr isn’t priced as rock bottom as some other quarterbacks, but he certainly isn’t prohibitive, and he’ll likely go lower-owned in that middle range due to the status of his wide receivers. The Giants have been a little better against the quarterback position of late but are still allowing the third-highest percentage of points via passing touchdowns in the NFL. Considering Carr’s projected top targets are all cheap, Raiders stacks will come in at bargain prices. The Models project underwhelming upside for Carr, but the Stacking tool suggests a number of different ways you can play the low-cost Raiders passing game.
Wentz vs. Seattle
The Seahawks’ myriad injuries in the secondary are well known, but they haven’t been put to a firm test since they occurred. Sandwiching road matchups with Arizona and San Francisco, Seattle’s most difficult recent competition was a home game against Atlanta. Matt Ryan had an efficient day, completing over 70 percent of his passes and throwing two touchdowns, but he attempted just 27 passes in the win, totaling 195 yards. Now the Seahawks host Carson Wentz and an Eagles attack that has scored a league-high 28 passing touchdowns. The line has moved toward Philadelphia since they opened as road favorites, and the total is a point shy of the highest mark in Week 13. If a shootout brews, Wentz is a high-priced option with underrated upside.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Rushing Touchdown Points Rate: 19.7 percent
Neon Dion and The Man They Call Rex
New England’s slate-high implied total is best leveraged in the running game as we continue to pick on the Bills run defense. The Bills did find success last week against the Chiefs, but that was at least in part because Kansas City handed off to running backs just 12 times. Over the Bills’ prior three games, opposing backs totaled at least 30 carries in each, averaging over 200 rushing yards and three scores per game. The Patriots head to Buffalo as more than touchdown favorites and have relied on Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead of late. Lewis has six straight games with double-digit carries, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three straight on both sites. Burkhead toted the rock 13 times in Week 12, his second game with double-digit carries in his past three. He scored two short touchdowns, while Lewis had three carries of his own inside the 10-yard line and has punched in three rushing scores in that area over the past eight weeks. There’s ample reason to have exposure to both.
Bet on Fournette
After scoring in his first six career games, Leonard Fournette has been held out of the end zone for three straight contests since he missed a game each to injury and discipline. His workload has been erratic since returning to the lineup, but the Jaguars have found themselves in closer game scripts than Week 12 is likely to provide. The Jaguars opened as 8.5-point favorites at home against the Colts, and the line has moved a point in their direction. The Jaguars have thrown more in the red zone over the past three games, and Blake Bortles scored a pair of rushing touchdowns last week, but Week 12 is a get-right spot for Fournette as Indianapolis has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns, tied for third most on the season.
Kicking Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 33.0 percent
Back to Boswell
I wrote up Chris Boswell last week and he had a disappointing night, missing an early extra point and needing a game-winning 53-yard field goal to salvage seven FanDuel points. He’s in prime time again in Week 13, playing in an even better spot in the Monday night contest. That puts him off the main slate, but he’s well worth going back to for contests that include Monday night. The Bengals allow a league-high 44.2 percent of scoring via the kicking game, and that’s despite opposing kickers missing field goals against them in three straight games. Cincinnati has allowed multiple field goal tries in each of their past seven games, averaging more than three per game during that stretch. For Boswell, Sunday night snapped a streak of five straight games with multiple field goals. The Steelers also sport a solid 24.5-point implied total as road favorites.
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz, where he authors the weekly column Stealing Signals.
