The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
Week 12: It’s here and mostly about trying to recover from a turkey and pie hangover. Although it has wider applicability, this breakdown is explicitly for the 11-game DraftKings and 12-game FanDuel main slates.
The Big Three
In ordinary slates one player dominates the top of the tight end salary scale, but this isn’t an ordinary slate.
- Rob Gronkowski ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Travis Kelce ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
- Zach Ertz ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
I have no earthly idea what he means, but Freedman would say: Once more unto the breach, dear friends.
To Gronk or not to Gronk?
Whenever Gronk is in a slate one of the first questions daily fantasy players must ask themselves is whether they wish to Gronk. As Freedman would say — when he’s not comatose from binge eating pie for breakfast — Gronk’s the Shaquille O’Neal of tight ends. Gronk is second on the Patriots with a 17.33 percent target market share the past four weeks and has led the team in air yards in two of those four weeks. Gronkowski is tied for sixth in the NFL with his 14 targets inside the 20-yard line and is tied for 10th with three receiving touchdowns inside the 10.
Playing back at home after a two-game road trip, the Patriots lead the slate with an implied total of 32.25 points as massive 16.5-point favorites. This week Gronk gets a Dolphins defense that has allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends on both DraftKings (15.7) and FanDuel (12.4): Gronk has a great matchup this week. In 15 games against the AFC East since 2014, Gronkowski has averaged 15.71 points per game (PPG) with a +1.57 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 12.61 PPG with a +1.13 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Gronk leads all tight ends with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he has a position-high ceiling projection and is the highest-rated tight end in Adam Levitan’s Model.
Mount Olympus, Kansas City
Kelce continues his stranglehold on the Chiefs’ market share with a team-leading 27.74 percent of targets over the past four weeks while leading Kansas City in air yards in two of those games. Additionally, Zeus is the only tight end in the league who ranks in the top 10 of pass catchers for both receptions (59) and receiving yards (738). Long story short: Dude’s a beast.
The Chiefs are implied for 28.25 points as 10-point home favorites against the Bills, who have been about league-average against tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. Kelce has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark in two of his past three games while averaging 105 receiving yards per game during that span. Moreover, he’s had at least seven catches in each of those three games. With Tyreek Hill the only Kansas City receiver challenging Kelce for targets, it’s likely that he will continue to get fed as much pie as he can handle. You might as well use our Lineup Builder to stack Kelce with quarterback Alex Smith this week. Kelce leads the position with seven DraftKings and eight FanDuel Pro Trends.
“Everybody Ertz Sometimes”
Ertz returned from his hamstring injury last week to put up an uninspiring line of two catches for eight yards. While his statistical output sucked, he did play on 60 of the Eagles’ 64 offensive snaps, which is encouraging. It’s likely that Philadelphia’s 32-point thrashing of the Cowboys had more to do with Ertz’s output than any potential lingering injury. This week the Eagles are 13.5-point favorites at home against the Bears, who are second with a 9.1 percent adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders), so there is the potential for Ertz to be used heavily as a blocker, which would lower his upside.
Still, Ertz scored five touchdowns in the four games prior to his injury, and he is currently tied for fourth in the NFL with five receptions inside the 10-yard line, four of which have gone for touchdowns. Ertz has a top-three ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where we are projecting him to have a reduced ownership rate relative to Gronk and Kelce. When the day is long and the night is yours alone, when you’re sure you’ve had enough, don’t let the recency bias get you off Ertz.
The Dumpoff Pass
Jack Doyle ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Doyle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings (+2.90) and FanDuel (+2.82) by a comfortable margin. Doyle leads the Colts with a 27.34 target share over the past four games and he has been targeted fewer than seven times just once in that span. We currently have Doyle projected as the chalk at the tight end position.
Austin Hooper ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): The No. 1 DraftKings tight end in the Bales Model, Hooper checks in with the position’s fourth-highest ceiling projection on that site. Hooper ranks second on the Falcons with a 16.81 target share over the past four weeks and has been targeted inside the 10-yard line three times in those games.
Delanie Walker ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Walker leads the Titans with a 23.74 target market share the past four weeks, and he has led Tennessee in air yards in two of those games.
Greg Olsen ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Practicing this week and reportedly ready to suit up, Olsen (foot, injured reserve) gets a Jets team allowing the seventh-most PPG to tight ends on both DraftKings (13.2) and FanDuel (10.9).
Julius Thomas ($2,700 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): In the three games since the Dolphins traded away running back Jay Ajayi they’ve targeted Thomas 17 times, and he’s responded with 12 catches, 122 yards, and two touchdowns. Thomas ranks second on the Dolphins in opportunities inside the 10-yard line the past four weeks, but the Titans have allowed just three touchdowns to tight ends this season.
The Model Tight End
Besides the big dogs, there is one tight end who continually pops in all the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek): Jared Cook ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel).
Cook ranks third on the Raiders the past four weeks with a 14.53 percent target share and he has been targeted at least five times in all of those games. Importantly, Cooks has eclipsed 100 yards receiving in two of those four games and he has averaged five catches and 81.5 yards per game during that stretch. Even more exciting: Cooks gets a Broncos team that has allowed the second-most PPG to tight ends on both DraftKings (17.8) and FanDuel (14.6) this season and because the Giants already played this week, the Broncos are the most tight end friendly team available. Cooks is the highest-rated FanDuel tight end in the CSURAM88 Model and checks in at No. 2 in both the Bales and SportsGeek models behind only Gronk.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to research the tight ends for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 11 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
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