The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 12.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Los Angeles Rams – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahome projects for the highest ceiling on the week, in what looks to be a more ideal matchup against the Los Angeles Ram, who rank 16th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Chiefs are a massive 15.5-point favorite in a matchup with a 42-point total, and the hyper-effective offense looks to be in cruise control, especially with Bryce Perkins taking over under-center duties for the Rams with Matthew Stafford out.
Despite Mahomes’ dual-treat ability, the Chiefs remain one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), the third highest in the league. The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 326.5 passing yards per game and a 66.3% completion percentage. In a 30-27 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, Mahomes passed for 329 yards and three touchdowns, also rushing for 23 yards on four attempts.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 42-point total, he averages 26.71 actual DraftKings points, with a +3.56 Plus/Minus and a 60% consistency rating. Even with the expensive price tag–the most of any quarterback on both sites, Mahomes can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability, and should also be a popular option for rosters this week.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Lamar Jackson projects for the highest ceiling in a road matchup with the Jaguars. The Week 12 matchup looks great on paper for the versatile quarterback, with Jacksonville ranking 26th in DVOA. An elite quarterback, Jackson is a pivot option that offers cost-savings in a more ideal matchup. This season, Jackson is averaging 197.9 yards per game, combined with 9.7 rushing yards per game and 6.87 yards per carry–which should add to his touchdown upside, as he is likely to find the endzone on the ground.
In the 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers, Jackson threw for 209 yards on 24 passes, also rushing for 31 yards and one touchdown. Like Mahomes, Jackson should be a popular choice for rosters this week and certainly has potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Geno Smith vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Geno Smith projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Seattle offense in a home matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who appear to be the weakest defense in the league.
In 10 games this season, Smith is averaging 247.4 passing yards per game and a 72% completion rate and has thrown for more than 200 yards in seven games. In a 21-16 loss to the Buccaneers in Week 10, Smith threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns and should come well-rested after a bye week facing a Raiders defense that has given up an average of 247 yards per game, which puts them toward the bottom of the league.
According to PFF, the Raiders rank 24th in overall defense, and should the Week 10 performance in Munich be an indicator, Smith deserves a second look, opening up salary to elite skill-position players. Look for the veteran quarterback to continue to use a hyperfocused receiving corps in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Jacobs at Seattle Seahawks – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Josh Jacobs projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Seahawks defense ranked 17th in rushing DVOA.
Jacobs has firmly established himself in the Raiders’ backfield, responsible for 82% of the rushing share, averaging 5.08 yards per carry through 10 games. While the Seahawks might not be the most ideal matchup, Jacobs also averages 18 rushing attempts per game and should be a factor in the passing game as well, seeing 4.1 targets per game and 7.4 yards per reception. In a 22-16 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 11, Jacobs rushed for 109 yards on 24 carries, with the volume likely not decreasing, especially in a close game with the Raiders as a 3.5-point underdog.
With a more affordable salary on both sites, Jacobs consistently becomes a candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, with tremendous touchdown upside, finding the end zone in four of the 10 games this season. Consistent volume should make this elite running back a worthy spend-up in Week 12.
Editors note: Jacobs was a late addition to the injury report. Be sure to check our Player Models for updated running back projections.
Top Value: Latavius Murray at Carolina Panthers – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
With the Denver Broncos moving on from Melvin Gordon, veteran running back Latavius Murray looks to have taken over the lead back role in Week 12, making him a top value option at running back, in an ideal matchup against the Carolina, who rank 21st in DVOA.
Gordon abandons 34% of the Broncos’ rushing share, which should benefit Murray, who, in five games with the Broncos, has averaged 12.6 rushing attempts per game and 3.32 yards per attempt. Murray has also seen his workload increase in recent weeks, including a 17-carry 49-yard performance that resulted in one touchdown.
In a low-total matchup, Murray is a fantasy-relevant option with a discounted salary on DraftKings with guaranteed volume in the running game against a weaker-than-average Panthers defense.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams at Seattle Seahawks – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Davante Adams projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 12 against the Seattle Seahawks in the highest total matchup of the week.
Seattle is ranked 17th in pass DVOA — a less-than-ideal matchup on paper for the hyper-elite wideout. Adams, who has a 32% target share, is the preferred option for quarterback Derek Carr, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 14.5 yards per reception. Further, look for Adams to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in six of the Raiders’ 10 games this season. In the win in Week 11, Adams was targeted 13 times, catching seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns.
Aside from the volume, Adams is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 13 end zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, leading the Raiders’ receiving corps. On a slate with lower-than-usual totals, look to target Adams either in a stack with Carr or as a bring-back with Seattle skill players.
Top Value: Garrett Wilson vs. Chicago Bears – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Garrett Wilson projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a weak Chicago Bears defense ranked 30th in pass DVOA.
Wilson is the leader in market share in the Jets’ receiving corps, responsible for a 22% target share, and the rookie wideout has been a consistent target for quarterback Zach Wilson, seeing at least five targets in seven of the Jets’ first 10 games this season.
In a Week 11 10-3 loss to the New England Patriots, Wilson was targeted three times, catching two passes for 12 yards –a disappointing performance. While he has been absent from the end zone since Week 2, the consistent volume makes him a viable fantasy option in an ideal matchup — even with quarterback Mike White taking over play-calling duties for the Jets.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Los Angeles Rams – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce returns to the main slate and projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Rams defense ranked 26th in pass DVOA — a prime matchup for an elite skill position player who essentially is unfadeable.
Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, responsible for a team-leading 24% target share. Kelce is averaging 12.4 yards per reception and nine targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings, being in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in six of the Chiefs’ first 10 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in six games.
The Cheifs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look.
Top Value: Evan Engram vs. Baltimore Ravens – $3,200 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Evan Engram projects as a top value at tight end, given his discounted salary on DraftKings. Engram looks to be a consistent option in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, seeing 16% of the target share, averaging 9.8 yards per reception and 5.1 targets per game. In seven of the Jaguars’ first 10 games, Engram has recorded at least four targets from quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
With a discounted salary on DraftKings, look for Engram to be a consistent option at tight end and could even be paired with the versatile Lamar Jackson.
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