The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels vs. Dallas Cowboys – $7,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Jayden Daniels is the most expensive QB on Sunday’s 10-game DraftKings slate, and he also brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection using an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ. The FanDuel slate includes the Sunday Night Football game, which brings Jalen Hurts in as the most expensive option with the highest ceiling, but Daniels is still right behind him.
The Commanders haven’t played since losing to Hurts and the Eagles on Thursday Night Football of Week 11. Daniels racked up 191 passing yards and a touchdown and finished with 14.4 DraftKings points in that eight-point road loss.
The rookie still has a lot of growing to do, but his rushing potential has been on full display this season, and his 43.8 rushing yards per game have helped him average 19.1 DraftKings points per contest. Daniels has had a couple of down games in his last two performances, which both came against tough competition. A rib injury limited his practice time, but hopefully, that’s behind him after the “mini-bye.”
He gets a great bounce-back spot against the Cowboys, who have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 230.5 passing yards per game while totaling 15 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in 10 games.
With extra time to prepare and this fantasy-friendly matchup, Daniels should be back near the top of the QB leaderboard this Sunday.
Top Value: Anthony Richardson vs. Detroit Lions – $5,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
After sitting two games behind Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson was strong in his return to the lineup. He put up big fantasy numbers and led the Colts to a road win vs. the Jets. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at QB on DraftKings in the three-way aggregate projection, while he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel, where his salary is significantly higher.
Richardson is a little like Daniels in that his dual-threat ability gives him a high ceiling and a high floor since he can add yards and touchdowns on the ground. Last week, he threw for 272 yards and a touchdown while also running 10 times for 32 yards and two more scores. He finished with 29.08 DraftKings points and 28.08 FanDuel points, his highest output of the season on both sites.
He’ll have to make a lot of big plays and put up big points as he tries to keep up with the high-scoring Lions this week. Detroit’s defense has been very opportunistic and productive, but they have given up some big games as teams try to rally against them. They have yet to allow multiple passing touchdowns this season but did allow Mason Rudolph to have a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown against them in Week 8.
I’m not confident at all that Richardson can do enough to make this game close. However, he’ll have to be aggressive, which gives him a high ceiling and a good chance to return value at this very affordable salary on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Von Achane vs. New England Patriots – $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
In his divisional matchup vs. the Patriots, De’Von Achane has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in the aggregate projections on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest ceiling projection and the third-highest median projection while also bringing an attractive 97% Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, he’s a little pricier but has the second-highest median and ceiling projections.
Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return at QB, Achane has taken over as the clear lead back, with Raheem Mostert mixing in only occasionally. In fact, Mostert has only totaled three carries and played 15% of snaps the past two weeks.
Achane has thrived in his expanded role, scoring four touchdowns in four games and averaging 22.4 DraftKings points per game since Tua has returned. He had over 100 yards rushing plus receiving last week against the Raiders and has reached that level in four of the six games that Tua has started this season.
With Tua at QB, Achane stays very involved as a pass catcher, averaging 6.2 catches per game. His threat as both a rusher and receiver keeps him involved in just about every game script and gives him a very high ceiling.
He had a quiet first game vs. the Patriots with Mostert doing most of the heavy lifting without Tua, but Achane should thrive in the rematch. Opposing running backs have scored 11 touchdowns in 11 games against New England while averaging 116.6 rushing yards and 25.8 receiving yards per game.
Top Value: James Conner at Seattle Seahawks – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
James Conner and the Cardinals come back from their bye week in the top spot in the NFC West as they head to Seattle to face the Seahawks. Conner has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs in the aggregate projections behind only Achane. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Conner posted over 17 DraftKings points in three of the Cardinals’ last four games before their bye week and averaged 16.3 DraftKings points in his first 10 games of the season. He has five touchdowns on the season and four games with at least 100 rushing yards.
This season, Conner has also been more involved as a receiver out of the backfield. He has three targets or more in each of his last six games, with multiple catches in each of those contests. He had a season-high five catches for 80 receiving yards against the Jets in Arizona’s 31-6 win in Week 10 just before their bye.
The Seahawks have been a good matchup for running backs this season. Opposing running backs have scored eight touchdowns this season against Seattle while posting 120.3 rushing yards and 32.2 receiving yards per game.
Conner has a great ceiling and good upside at this price on DraftKings, but if you need to go cheaper, Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,600) is an option to consider. On FanDuel, Rhamondre Stevenson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and is especially affordable, making him another value play to consider.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown at Indianapolis Colts – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
With some of the other top receivers in tough matchups or on bye weeks, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands out as the top pay-up play. Using the aggregate projections, he has the highest median projection of all receivers on both DraftKings and FanDuel as well as the second-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings.
St. Brown and the Lions steamrolled the Jaguars last week, but the star receiver still had a monster game despite the blowout. He caught all 11 of his targets for 161 receiving yards, two touchdowns and 41.7 DraftKings points. After his big game, he is averaging 20.0 DraftKings points per game, and he has at least 18 DraftKings points in three straight and seven of his last nine.
The Colts have given up at least 12 catches to receivers in each of their last four games. Opposing receivers have scored nine touchdowns against them in 11 games this season.
The Lions’ offense has looked unstoppable the last few weeks, and St. Brown is a reliable part of their game plan every week.
Top Value: Jakobi Meyers vs. Denver Broncos – $5,100 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
The Raiders have relied on Jakobi Meyers as their top receiver since trading Davante Adams to the Jets, and this week, Meyers has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projections for his home divisional game vs. the Broncos. On FanDuel, he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Even in the Raiders’ inconsistent offense, Meyers has not lacked volume. He has an average of 8.7 targets over his last six games. In those games, he has averaged 6.0 catches for 61.3 yards per game and scored a pair of touchdowns. He had his first 100-yard receiving game of the year in Week 9 against the Bengals just before the Raiders’ Week 10 bye week.
Last week, Meyers caught 4 of 6 targets for 28 yards and also had a 20-yard rush. He finished with under 9.9 DraftKings points for the first time since Week 2, but he should be able to bounce back against the Broncos.
In his Week 5 matchup with Denver, Meyers had six catches for 72 yards and 13.2 DraftKings points. He will be in a better scoring environment at home this week and has averaged 16.1 DraftKings points in his three home games this year.
If you have to go even cheaper, Romeo Doubs and Keenan Allen have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the receivers in the $4,000s on DraftKings while Kayshon Boutte stands out as a bargain play under $4,000. On FanDuel, Doubs is joined by Rome Odunze as a good value under $6,000.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Carolina Panthers – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce has the highest ceiling projection at tight end in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel with the second-highest on DraftKings. Even though he’s not a cheap play, he brings plenty of value to his matchup this week with the Panthers.
In last week’s loss to the Bills, Kelce had two tight end touchdowns vultured by Noah Gray and posted a disappointing two catches for eight yards. He had been turning things around with three straight games of double-digit targets and 20+ DraftKings points before that big letdown.
Kelce and the Chiefs couldn’t ask for a much softer bounce-back spot this week after their first loss of the season. They travel to Carolina to face the Panthers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Tight ends have scored eight touchdowns in 10 games against the Panthers and averaged over 60 receiving yards per week.
Patrick Mahomes will likely look his way early and often this week, so Kelce has a ton of upside worth paying up for.
Top Value: Hunter Henry at Miami Dolphins – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
I’m back on Henry as my top value tight end for the second straight week since he has been so involved in the Patriots’ offense with Drake Maye at QB. For the second straight week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the aggregate projections on DraftKings. He’s also in the top three on FanDuel.
Henry had six catches for 63 yards against the Rams while drawing nine targets last week. He bounced back nicely from a one-catch down game against the Bears, and aside from that Week 10 showing has 5+ catches in each of his last five games for at least 45 yards per contest.
Opposing tight ends have scored two touchdowns in the last three weeks against the Dolphins, and Brock Bowers tore them up for 126 yards from the position last week. While I don’t think Henry has that kind of upside, he does have reliable involvement and is due for some positive touchdown regression due to his regular red zone work but no touchdowns since Week 6.
