The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Try Our New SimLabs Tool!
We’re excited to announce the launch of our new NFL DFS simulations tool! Try SimLabs for FREE while it’s still in beta.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. Buffalo Bills – $8,300 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
The Eagles are coming home off their big win over the Chiefs on Monday night football to face another top AFC contender as they host the Bills. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense were stuck in neutral for three quarters on Monday (partly due to the weather), but they pulled it together late and did enough to get the win and post a solid fantasy day for Hurts.
This week, Hurts has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections of all 20 starting quarterbacks on the slate using the FantasyLabs projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel. THE BLITZ projections also give him the highest ceiling and median projections on both sites, and Chris Raybon’s projections give him the top ceiling, median, and floor projections as well.
Hurts ceiling spot this week is pretty unanimous, so it’s not surprising that he has the top spot in all the quarterback projections in the three-way aggregated projections as well. For this post, we rely on an evenly-blended three-way aggregate, but you can build your own special blend as highlighted above. Using those blended projections, Hurts also brings the top Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on FanDuel as well.
Against the Chiefs on Monday, Hurts only had 150 passing yards, but he still delivered for his fantasy owners by running for two scores. He has a total of nine rushing touchdowns in 10 games while adding 15 passing scores and an average of 250 passing yards per game. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of his past seven games and on DraftKings in five of those seven contests.
Hurts and the Eagles are undefeated at home this season, and he has been especially sharp at the Linc, averaging 26.1 DraftKings points and 25.1 FanDuel points per home start.
Last week, the Bills bounced back with a good showing against the struggling Jets, but before that matchup had allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight contests. The Bills are banged up on defense, and they should be a getable matchup for Hurts and the Eagles, who are tied for the highest implied team total on the slate. The matchup also has the highest over/under on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
While he is the most expensive play on DraftKings and the second-most expensive on FanDuel, he projects well enough to be worth paying up for if you have the salary available.
Top Value: Baker Mayfield at Indianapolis Colts – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
The top two cheap quarterbacks in the projections go head-to-head in Indianapolis. Baker Mayfield gets a slight advantage over Gardner Minshew, so unless you’re desperate for the extra savings, Mayfield looks like he’s the better option for this week. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings in the aggregate projections and is tied for the second-highest Pts/Sal. On FanDuel, Mayfield is tied with Hurts for the highest Pts/Sal and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus behind Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
Baker and the Bucs lost last week to the 49ers, but before that, he was in a nice groove. He threw multiple touchdowns in three straight games while averaging 260 passing yards per contest against the Bills, Texans, and Titans. For the most part, he isn’t getting much help from his running game, so he has 15 passing touchdowns in his 10 games while averaging a solid 238.9 passing yards per contest.
The Colts are coming off their bye week after winning in Germany. Overall, they rank in the middle of the pack against quarterbacks, but they have played a relatively easy slate of opponents, including Mac Jones and Bryce Young, in their last two matchups. Derek Carr had 300 yards and two scores against them in Week 8, so they are definitely beatable by a pocket passer like Baker.
Given the matchup and his recent form, Mayfield should be a solid value play this week. If he gets back to his multiple touchdown throws, he’ll likely exceed salary-based expectations, and he is a solid alternative if you’re paying up in other spots and going cheap at quarterback.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
With Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard playing on Thanksgiving and Raheem Mostert in the Black Friday showcase, we’re left a little thin on top running backs on Sunday’s 10-game slate. As a result, Jonathan Taylor takes the clear top ceiling spot in our projections despite a less-than-ideal matchup with Tampa Bay. Taylor has the top ceiling, median, and floor projection in the aggregated rankings on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also claims the top spot in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal.
After starting the season on IR, Taylor signed a monster deal to return to the Colts and has been working his way back to a full workload. He seems to be back to full strength and ready to carry the load after getting a season-high 24 touches in the Colts’ win in Germany before their bye week. It’s especially noteworthy that Zack Moss, who carried the load effectively while Taylor was out, got only one carry. Taylor also out-snapped Moss 50-to-9 in that win.
Taylor has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games and has scored three touchdowns in those contests. He also has 15 catches on 18 targets in his last five games, so he brings good potential production in the passing games as well.
He hasn’t had a monster game yet this year, but a breakout seems inevitable with so much volume coming his way. Even though the Bucs are typically stout against the run, this could be the week. Tampa Bay did give up over 100 rushing yards to the 49ers in their most recent game and also allowed a CMC touchdown.
Taylor is only the seventh-highest-priced running back on FanDuel, where he matches seven Pro Trends, which is more than any other running back on the slate. On DraftKings, Taylor has the fourth-highest salary but has a 65% Bargain Rating. Even though the matchup isn’t ideal, the other options on the main slate don’t come close to matching Taylor’s ceiling.
Top Value: Jaylen Warren at Cincinnati Bengals – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, Jaylen Warren is projected to continue to be a great value play. He has a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs under $5,500. On FanDuel, Warren has been priced up to almost $7,000, but he still has good upside since he has been tearing things up in his growing role in the Steelers offense.
Warren has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his 10 games on DraftKings with an Average Plus/Minus of 4.82 DraftKings points on the season. He has been even better lately, with an Average Plus/Minus of 12.3 in his last three contests.
In each of the last two weeks, Warren has run for over 100 yards and a touchdown while also adding a total of five catches. Warren even had 100 yards and a score in last week’s matchup against the top-rated Browns offense, so he has the potential for a big game in any matchup. With Matt Canada out as offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, it will be fascinating to see how Eddie Faulkner changes things on offense. The unknown Faulkner factor makes Warren even more volatile than usual since his role in the timeshare with Najee Harris is less defined. What he has shown, though, is that he is a dynamic playmaker and deserves to have the ball in his hands. If Faulkner can make that happen regularly, Warren could go off against the Bengals.
The game between these AFC North rivals isn’t expected to be high-scoring, but it also seems unlikely that the Steelers will get blown out by the Bengals without Joe Burrow (wrist). If the game stays close, Warren should get enough work to be a viable value play on DraftKings. Opposing running backs have scored eight touchdowns in the last seven games against the Bengals and have run for 150 and 96 yards in the last two weeks. It should be a good matchup for both Harris and Warren, and both are potential value plays on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, value is a little trickier to find at running back since both Steelers’ options are priced up. In the FantasyLabs projections, Javonte Williams actually has the highest Projected Plus/Minus, and he comes in third in the blended projections. If you need to go cheap at the position, though, Tyjae Spears has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs under Williams’ salary of $6,400.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: A.J. Brown vs. Buffalo Bills – $9,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
In last week’s showdown with the Chiefs, A.J. Brown was a huge disappointment. He finished with just one catch for eight yards in by far his worst game of the season. The projections don’t indicate he’s headed for an extended drought, though, and tag him for a great bounce-back game against the Bills. Brown has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the blended projections.
Before last week’s letdown, Brown had at least six catches and at least eight targets in all but one game this season. He had averaged 7.4 catches for 111.7 yards per game in his previous nine games and scored six touchdowns. Four of those touchdowns came in his four home games, where he averaged 25.2 DraftKings points and 19.9 FanDuel points per contest.
Brown matches seven Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is more than any other wide receiver, and five on DraftKings, which is tied for the second-most of all receivers on the slate. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he has been more productive this year on DraftKings since he so often hits the plateau for the 100-yard bonus.
The Bills’ injured defense kept the Jets receivers from doing much last week, but Courtland Sutton had eight catches and a touchdown in Week 10. Opposing receivers have eight touchdowns in 10 games and an average of 130.6 yards against the Bills this season.
Stacking Hurts and Brown and counting on them for a big bounce-back performance is a strong strategy to consider this week. It’s an expensive stack, but there is value to target in other spots that can help compensate.
Top Value: Demario Douglas at New York Giants – $4,400 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
The Patriots haven’t announced their starting quarterback, but whoever is under center for the Pats, there hasn’t been much success for New England’s offense. The one notable exception has been Demario Douglas, who has been in a growing role and finding ways to still put up good numbers despite the offense’s struggles. Douglas has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all wide receivers on DraftKings in the aggregate projections.
On FanDuel, even though the rookie is priced up to over $6K, he still has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers. No receiver that costs more than him on FanDuel has a better Projected Plus/Minus.
Since missing a game with a concussion, Douglas has had at least four catches and at least five targets in four straight games. During that stretch, he has averaged 5.0 catches on 7.25 targets for 54.5 yards per game. His best game of the season came in his most recent game with a career-high six catches for 84 yards against the Colts in Germany. He’s still looking for his first NFL touchdown, but he should be a big part of the Patriots’ passing attack, whoever plays quarterback.
The Giants have been a top-five matchup for wide receivers this season. Opposing receivers had 547 yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks and have averaged 181.4 yards per game while scoring 11 touchdowns in 11 games. Douglas should be in a good matchup with enough attention to be a great value play.
If you need to go cheap on FanDuel, some of the options that stand out in the aggregated projections are Rashid Shaheed, Zay Jones, and Justin Watson. On DraftKings, Watson is actually available at the minimum salary of just $3,000 and is behind just Douglas in terms of Projected Plus/Minus. Other cheap plays that pop on DraftKings are Shaheed and Trey Palmer.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Los Angeles Rams – $4,700 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
While Travis Kelce has the top projections across the board, he’s also extremely expensive. If you can afford him, go for it, but if you are looking for a different option that can still bring a high ceiling, take a look at McBride. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the aggregated projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites in the aggregated projections.
McBride’s recent breakout as a top producer has been fueled by at least five targets in six straight games. During that span, he exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings four times. He exploded for a 10-catch performance that included his first touchdown of the year against the Ravens and added a 100-yard game against the Falcons as well.
In the last two weeks, Kyler Murray has targeted McBride 16 times, and the second-year tight end hauled in 13 catches for 174 total yards. With so much work flowing in his direction, he should be set up for success against the Rams, who have been one of the best matchups for tight ends this season. Opposing tight ends have an average of 56.8 yards per game and have scored five touchdowns in the last seven games.
McBride has the potential for a monster game, and he comes so much cheaper than Kelce that he is much easier to fit in lineups for this week.
Top Value: Cade Otton at Indianapolis Colts – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Using the aggregated projections, Cade Otton has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of tight ends on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. If you want to pay up for elite options at receiver and running back, you can stack Otton with Mayfield as an elite value option that has a very high ceiling.
Otton has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of his past five games. He has at least four catches in each of those four games while posting over 40 yards three times.
By far his best game of the season came during that stretch against the Texans. He hauled in six-of-nine targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. On the season, he has three touchdowns and is averaging over 30 yards per game. He has been a frequent red-zone option and has the potential to find the end zone this week against the Colts.
Indy has only allowed one touchdown to tight ends this season. However, opposing tight ends have averaged 5.8 catches for 57.3 yards per game in 10 games. If Otton stays involved like he has been, he should be able to continue his recent surge and be a strong value option at tight end.
