Week 12 NFL DFS TE Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.

In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Travis Kelce ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

Kelce is coming off a dreadful performance in Week 11, finishing with just four targets, two catches, and eight yards. That said, he’s still been a pretty consistent source of fantasy production of late. Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce has assumed a 29% target share as the Chiefs’ No. 1 pass-catcher. That’s an absolutely elite mark for the tight end position.

All those targets have led to significant fantasy production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in three of his past four. Overall, he’s finished as a top-three option at the position in each of those three outings.

Kelce also remains priced at a discount at $5,300 on DraftKings. That’s not a number where we’ve been able to get him often during the Patrick Mahomes era, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.08 with a comparable salary since the start of 2018 (per the Trends tool).

Kelce also draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Panthers. They’re 31st in defensive EPA, including 31st against the pass. They’ve allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, and the Chiefs’ implied team total is tied for the fourth-highest on the slate.

Add it all up, and it’s hard to argue for anyone else being the top option at the position.

Hunter Henry ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

If you can’t afford Kelce, Henry has been a very steady source of value all year. His role with the Patriots has been fantastic. He and Kelce are the only tight ends in football with more than 400 air yards. He’s posted a 19% target share for the year, and that figure has increased slightly since Drake Maye took over at quarterback.

Henry doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six outings. He’s done that despite scoring just one touchdown over that time frame, which is how tight ends typically do most of their damage.

Speaking of touchdowns, Henry has been one of the most unlucky players in the league in that department. His 4.5 expected receiving touchdowns (per PFF) is the fourth-best mark among tight ends, yet he’s scored just a single time in 10 games. He could be due for some positive regression moving forward, especially with Maye continuing to improve.

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Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Brock Bowers ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Kelce might be the steadiest stud tight end, but Bowers arguably has the higher ceiling. In his best games this season, he’s had finishes that very few tight ends in football can match. He’s already had six top-six finishes at the position, and the only reason he wasn’t No. 1 last week was Taysom Hill’s explosion. Bowers racked up a whopping 16 targets against the Dolphins – good for a 43% target share – which he converted into 13 catches, 126 yards, and a touchdown.

Since Week 5, Bowers has garnered 32% of the Raiders’ targets, 31% of their air yards, and 40% of their end zone looks. Not even Kelce can match that level.

Bowers does catch passes from a far worse group of quarterbacks, but Gardner Minshew has done a phenomenal job of getting Bowers the ball. He’s had a target share of at least 34% in three of Minshew’s past four starts, so he’s undoubtedly their best option for Bowers’ fantasy prospects.

The Raiders will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Broncos on Sunday, but Bowers has already torched them for 23.7 DraftKings points once this season. Bowers is projected for roughly half the ownership of Kelce, making him a very appealing pivot for tournaments.

Jonnu Smith ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Never in a million years did I think I’d be writing about Jonnu Smith this season. Miami has been where tight ends go to die in the Mike McDaniel offense. Mike Gesicki was never able to produce there despite being an athletic freak, while Durham Smythe managed just 35 grabs in 16 games as the team’s top tight end last year. Tyreek Hill, Jayden Waddle, and De’Von Achane have soaked up nearly all the targets, which hasn’t left much for anyone else.

Smith is changing that narrative in 2024. His role in the offense has continued to grow all season, culminating in a monster performance in Week 11. He racked up eight targets vs. the Raiders, and he finished with 31.1 DraftKings points on six receptions, 101 yards, and two touchdowns.

Smith probably won’t duplicate that performance vs. the Patriots, but he’s been involved enough to warrant consideration at his current price tag. He’s had a 21% target share across his past five games, and the Patriots are 29th in pass defense EPA.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

T.J. Hockenson ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Hockenson is officially back for the Vikings, though he’s yet to assume a true full-time role. He’s posted a 63% route participation across his first three contests, and he’s racked up a 16% target share. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but they’re not what you’d hope for with a starting fantasy tight end.

However, the team has ruled out Josh Oliver for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Bears, which gives Hockenson significantly more upside. Oliver has a 44% route participation over the past three weeks, and Hockenson could assume the majority of those snaps. Johnny Mundt is the only other tight end currently on their active roster, and he’s barely seen the field since Hockenson returned to the lineup.

Hockenson’s upside is not being fully appreciated by DFS players. He’s currently projected for less than 5% ownership on DraftKings, but he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at closer to a 9% clip.

Trey McBride ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

The Cardinals are coming off a bye in Week 11, so they should be pretty fresh for their matchup vs. the Seahawks. It’s expected to be one of the best of the week for fantasy purposes, with the 47.5-point total ranking second on the main slate.

That makes McBride an appealing GPP target. He’s been one of the most involved tight ends in the league this season, posting a 26% target share across his nine games. He’s had double-digit DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s another player who looks undervalued relative to his optimal rate.

Sam LaPorta ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with LaPorta at this point. He’s had just a 13% target share in one of the most run-heavy attacks in the league.

Still, LaPorta is clearly talented. He was the top tight end in fantasy last year, and he was one of the first tight ends off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft. If he gets more opportunities, he should be able to capitalize.

Maybe that happens this week vs. the Colts, and if it does, LaPorta should provide value. His price tag has come way down across the industry, and the Lions have the top implied team total on the slate by a significant margin.