In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Geno Smith
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (42 total)
There’s no quarterback playing on the same level as Patrick Mahomes right now, as he has been on an absolute tear over the past six games. He’s thrown for 329+ yards in five straight games, with 30+ DraftKings points in five of his last six games. He only has two games lower than 20 DraftKings points this year, with both of them coming back in September.
The Chiefs are big favorites this week, which could lead to limited attempts for Mahomes. However, with the Chiefs practically incapable of running the ball, there’s no reason to be concerned. If Kansas City is up enough to the point of Mahomes sitting, it’s almost certainly due to him lighting up the scoreboard.
The matchup is very easy, with the Rams ranking dead last in pressure rate on the season. They just let Andy Dalton carve them up for 260 yards and three touchdowns while completing 84% of his passes. There’s little reason to think this defense will be able to put up a fight against the Chiefs.
Mahomes is always a viable option in DFS regardless of the matchup. When a quarterback of his caliber gets treated with a good matchup, it’s time to lock and load.
He doesn’t lead any of our models, but ranks second in both our Cash Game and Tournament Models, while ranking fourth in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-4) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47.5 total)
Geno Smith had some pedestrian games in the middle of the season before returning to early-season form over the past three weeks. He’s thrown for two touchdowns in three straight games and has posted 19.08, 21.8, and 20.2 DraftKings points in that span. Throwing for multiple touchdowns is a borderline lock for Smith, as he has 2+ touchdowns in eight of ten games on the year.
Seattle is exiting the bye to a phenomenal matchup, as the Raiders are allowing the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt and fourth-most passing fantasy points per game. Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense are surely broken, but even he was able to post some efficiency against Las Vegas. Wilson threw for 247 yards while completing a season-high 77.4% of his passes.
Smith has his pass-catchers healthy after the bye, and the matchup on the outside is fairly unimposing. Tyler Lockett’s matchup in the slot is extra tasty, as the Raiders are giving up 11.0 yards per target to slot receivers and a 9.6% touchdown rate, which ranks second to last and dead last in the league, respectively.
Geno doesn’t have the sky-high upside that other quarterbacks have, but he doesn’t need it for how cheap he is.
He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, while leading all four of our models this weekend.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (48.5 total)
With the Los Angeles receiving room constantly changing, we haven’t seen Herbert settle into a groove. Joshua Palmer’s emergence last week was huge for the offense and makes him a prime stacking partner with Herbert. Keenan Allen returned from a long absence and looked pretty good as an early and often target of Herbert’s.
The Cardinals have been eviscerated by opposing quarterbacks recently, allowing a top-six scoring week to four of their past five quarterbacks. The one other time was against John Wolford. The quarterbacks who succeeded were Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, and Jimmy Garoppolo. A formidable list of signal callers, but none of them are on the same level of player as Herbert.
Herbert is a great option this weekend.
Joe Burrow ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (43.5 total)
Joe Burrow had one of his best games of the year last week, throwing for 355 yards and four touchdowns en route to a 31.7 DraftKings point performance. The loss of Joe Mixon in last week’s game may have shifted Cincinnati into a more pass-heavy approach. Mixon is going to miss this game as well, so we could see a similar approach.
The Titans’ pass defense is solid, but they give up a lot of attempts due to how good their run defense is. They’ve allowed merely 6.1 yards per attempt over their past five games. We can expect Burrow to throw the ball a ton, which keeps him as an interesting DFS target this weekend, especially in tournaments.
Tom Brady ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (42.5 total)
It’s been a pedestrian year for Brady, but he and the Bucs are coming off of a bye. His pass-catchers are healthy outside of Leonard Fournette, but Rachaad White is a more than capable backup who has some pass-catching prowess. Brady had one of his best games of the season prior to the bye, where he threw for 8.9 yards per attempt and completed 75.9% of his passes.
The Bucs shifted towards a play-action-heavy approach last week, which worked well for Brady. He went 9/10 for 121 yards on play action last week, as the team used play-action on 34.6% of his dropbacks last week as opposed to 16.2% prior. The Browns are susceptible to play action, allowing 9.7 yards per pass attempt against play action, which is the fourth-highest rate in the league.
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