In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jalen Hurts
- Gardner Minshew
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
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Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (48.5 total)
Jalen Hurts finally failed to top 20 DraftKings points, posting 19.9 on Monday Night against the Kansas City Chiefs. It wasn’t the prettiest performance, as Hurts had just 69 passing yards through three quarters. He heated up in the fourth quarter with a rushing touchdown and throwing for 81 yards in the fourth.
Hurts legs allowed him to salvage the day, which is a common occurrence. He found the end zone twice on the ground, marking nine rushing touchdowns for him on the year.
This Buffalo defense is an easier opponent than Kansas City. They came into the year looking like one of the top units in the league, but injuries have ravaged them, and they’ve allowed solid scores to Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Russell Wilson in recent weeks.
Hurts boasts the highest ceiling projection on the slate and is surely the safest bet for points of the top quarterbacks. Hurts is the top quarterback in our Cash and Tournament Models.
Gardner Minshew ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (44.5 total)
It’s been a mixed bag for Gardner Minshew ever since he took over for the injured Anthony Richardson. He had a 34.1-point performance in Week 7 against a stellar Cleveland defense. However, he’s totaled just 32.06 DraftKings points in the three games since, with two games of single digits.
The good news for Minshew is that he faces a Tampa Bay defense that has gotten pulverized since their bye. Since Week 5, The Bucs’ defense has allowed the highest completion rate and yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay does blitz at a high clip, and Minshew averages just 5.2 yards per attempt when opposing teams send extra rushers. However, he’s very cheap, and this defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Minshew leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary while being the top quarterback in both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Trevor Lawrence ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans (47.5 total)
The trend of me touting players a week early is undying. I was all over Trevor Lawrence in Week 10 against San Francisco, where he posted his worst game of the year at just 5.1 DraftKings points. He followed that up with the ceiling we’ve been dying to see, with a 32.18-point performance against Tennessee. A little bit of that is inflated, as he had two rushing touchdowns that propped up his score.
This Houston defense is trending in the wrong direction, allowing the third-most yards per attempt since Week 5. I’m expecting a lot of ownership to flock to Lawrence, which makes him slightly less appealing. However, this game environment is attractive, and Houston’s defense isn’t intimidating.
Baker Mayfield ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (48 total)
Baker Mayfield looks like another quarterback in a good game environment who is going to see too much ownership for my liking. Mayfield only had 12.34 DraftKings points against San Francisco, but a pair of dropped touchdowns late in the game obviously hurt.
Mayfield’s splits this week against man and zone coverage have been drastic, but he runs into the better side of his splits this week. Mayfield has under a 50% completion percentage against man coverage, but he won’t have to worry this week, as Indianapolis runs almost exclusively zone coverage.
He ranks second in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus and is in one of the more attractive game environments on the slate.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (48.5 total)
Currently projected for single-digit ownership, Josh Allen is shaping up to be my favorite quarterback play on the weekend. Despite a tough matchup with the Jets, Allen completed 20 of 32 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. This Philadelphia defense has been a consistent target, as most teams opt to abandon the run and go pass-heavy against them. I’m expecting a similar approach this week for Buffalo.
Patrick Mahomes had a middling showing against the Eagles, but Sam Howell and Dak Prescott absolutely lit them up in the previous two games.
Hurts is projected to see more ownership, but I far prefer attacking this game from the Allen side. When the stakes get high, we also see Allen utilize his legs more. Buffalo can’t really afford to drop more games, and they have dates with the Chiefs and Cowboys on the horizon after this game.
Allen boasts one of the top ceilings at the position, and he’s going a little overlooked in the top game environment on the week. He’s my favorite option at the quarterback position.
