The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 12!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
- Thanksgiving slate: The Vikings have long been thought of as a defense-first team, but their offense has really kicked it up a notch this year, even with a carousel of quarterbacks. They now rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) on the season, and, perhaps more importantly for fantasy, they rank third in neutral pace of play. In terms of raw snap counts over the past four games, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph rank fourth and sixth in the entire NFL with 271 and 269 snaps.
- Main slate: The Denver Broncos increased their pace of play last week, getting up to 81 offensive snaps. Wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas were a big part of that, playing 76 and 71, respectively. They now rank fourth in neutral pace of play on the year, and they’ll get an Oakland team that has also increased its pace after starting out slowly to begin the year. This game doesn’t have the juiciest Vegas total at 43.5, but it could boast more fantasy opportunities than expected.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
- Thanksgiving slate: There are six players with a 30.0-plus percent target share over the past four games, and two of them — Dez Bryant and Thielen — are on the Thanksgiving slate. Of the two, Thielen has the higher projected ceiling and better cornerback matchup, as Dez will see a combination of Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams, who have top-10 Pro Football Focus grades. Speaking of the Chargers: First-round pick Mike Williams got a career-high eight targets (22.2 percent) in last week’s win. Monitor his status, as he’s dealing with a knee injury.
- Main slate: Of the top 32 players in target market share over the past four games, only one is not a wide receiver or tight end. You’d probably guess Le’Veon Bell or perhaps Alvin Kamara, right? The correct answer is Christian McCaffrey, who owns 23.8 percent of the Panthers’ targets over their past four games — the highest mark on the team. He faces a Jets team in Week 12 that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA against RBs.
Air Yards
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
Notes
- Thanksgiving slate: This piece has essentially turned into a Thielen lovefest, and we aren’t stopping now. He leads all Thanksgiving slate players with 44.8 percent of the Vikings’ Air Yards over their past four games. That’s absolutely ridiculous for a WR who plays primarily in the slot, although that perhaps undersells Thielen a bit. Put simply, he’s one of the best WRs in the league and can accumulate fantasy points getting a variety of different types of targets.
- Main slate: Julio Jones has been perhaps the most disappointing fantasy player this season, but his metrics still suggest he’s due for progression. He’s sixth in the NFL with a 30.3 percent of his team’s targets over the past four games, and he’s getting valuable ones: He’s second in the league over that same span with a whopping 47.8 percent of his team’s Air Yards. He faces a Tampa Bay team in Week 12 that ranks 28th in pass DVOA.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
- Thanksgiving slate: The poor Washington Redskins continue to be decimated by injuries, and they lost starting RB Chris Thompson in Week 11 with a broken fibula. Samaje Perine seems to be the next guy up, and he got 76.7 percent of the Redskins’ carries last week — 88.5 percent if we remove Thompson’s touches from the sample. That amount of volume at just $5,000 on DraftKings should make Perine uber chalky for the Thanksgiving slate.
- Main slate: I know that Kareem Hunt broke your heart last week. He was a massive favorite coming off a bye against the New York Giants, who are a bottom-five defensive team in DVOA. Further, it seemed that the Chiefs would use a run-heavy attack as this game featured strong sustained winds. The result? Hunt had just 10.7 fantasy points at 35.9 percent ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker — but jump back on the train: Hunt still had 75.0 percent of the Chiefs’ rushes in Week 11, and this week he gets a Bills team that ranks 31st in run DVOA.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
- Thanksgiving slate: Melvin Gordon may not be good at football, but he does remain a market share monster. He’s tied for third in the entire league with eight opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his past four games. He should be immensely popular in the three-game Thanksgiving slate, mostly due to positional scarcity: He’s nearly $3,000 more expensive than any other RB. He has a beatable matchup against a Dallas squad that will be without Sean Lee again.
- Main slate: Unfortunately we can’t roster Le’Veon Bell in the DraftKings main slate again, but he is available on FanDuel. He’s a stud in every facet of the offense, and he’s clearly Pittsburgh’s go-to guy in the red zone. He’s currently the only player in the league with double-digit touches inside the 10 over his past four games. He’s worth playing on FanDuel in Week 12, especially as a 14-point home favorite against the Green Bay Packers.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
