We have a couple great slates this Thanksgiving week, so it’s time to deconstruct the Vegas lines. If you’re unfamiliar with what we do in this piece, here’s the gist:
- We’re breaking the implied team total into three scoring types — passing, rushing, and kicking points.
- To do this, we’re leveraging the rates at which teams score their points and opposing defenses concede them in each phase of the game.
In the below tables you’ll see a column labeled “Matchup %.” That number takes the percentage of total points an offense has scored in a specific way, such as through passing touchdowns, and averages it with the percentage of total points the opposing defense has allowed for that same scoring type.
Highlighting matchups that feature offenses and defenses that score and allow points in similar ways presents an opportunity to exploit the implied team totals. To do that, we apply the “Matchup %” to the implied team total to break it down into projections for passing, rushing, and kicking points. These projections are not fantasy points; rather, they are expected in-game points derived from the implied team totals.
As always, consult the NFL homepage for more information on individual matchups that stand out. Also, visit the Vegas page for any line movement. Let’s jump into the Week 12 deconstructions.
Passing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Passing Touchdown Points Rate: 40.9 percent
Note: Lines pulled from Sports Insights on November 21.
Old Man Rivers on Turkey Day
Washington comes in with the top passing points projection for the Thanksgiving slate on account of the slate’s highest team total. We know Kirk Cousins will be operating without his second-most targeted player, Chris Thompson, and his status as a 7.5-point home favorite could lead to a rushing lean. Insert road favorite Philip Rivers, who faces a reeling Cowboys team that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games. The line opened with Dallas as three-point favorites but has steadily moved toward the Chargers. Our NFL Models project Rivers and Cousins for similar ceilings, but Rivers comes in at $1,000 and $1,200 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.
Russell’s Muscle
Russell Wilson has been the Seahawks’ entire offense lately, throwing for 2.6 touchdowns per game over the past five games — a stretch in which he also has the team’s only rushing touchdown. The Seahawks can’t get anything going on the ground and turned to Mike Davis in Week 11 after deactivating Thomas Rawls. Although Davis went down, Eddie Lacy still played just six snaps; Rawls and Lacy appear to have run out of chances. The Seahawks now score the third-highest rate of passing points in the league and head to San Francisco in desperate need of a win to face a team that has given up multiple passing touchdowns in five straight. The Models agree the situation sets up perfectly for a Wilson eruption.
Rushing Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Rushing Touchdown Points Rate: 19.6 percent
Double Down on Latavius?
Coming off a two-touchdown day, Latavius Murray and the Vikings head to Detroit as road favorites. The Lions have given up an average of 125 rushing yards and 1.4 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs over their past five games. Murray’s price has risen, and he’s now more expensive than Jerick McKinnon on FanDuel. He has five carries inside the 10-yard line over the two games since the bye; he converted those into three touchdowns. In 2016, he scored 11 of his 12 rushing touchdowns on his 25 inside-the-10 opportunities. McKinnon also has appeal, and both backs have double-digit carries in every game since Dalvin Cook‘s injury, but Murray’s the better bet to get back in the end zone.
The Hunt for Six
Kareem Hunt burned over 30 percent of the field in every contest we track across DraftKings and FanDuel last week, as he extended his scoreless drought to seven games. It sets up a situation where some may be reluctant to get back on the horse for an even better get-right spot at home against Buffalo. The Bills have conceded a whopping nine rushing touchdowns to opposing RBs in just the past three games — more than 28 teams have allowed all season. While Hunt’s usage took a bizarre dip in Week 9 when he saw just 13 touches, he handled 21 coming out of the bye in Week 11. With no question about his usage, a ceiling projection over 30 on both sites, and a price that has fallen to $7,700 on FanDuel and remained at a palatable $8,000 on DraftKings, it’s no wonder the Models love him.
Kicking Scoring and Notes
2017 League Average Kicking Points Rate: 33.0 percent
The Bos
Chris Boswell has hit 13 field goals over his past four games, including at least two in each. The Steelers are 14-point home favorites against a Packers team that has allowed multiple field goals in every game since the Aaron Rodgers injury. As an added benefit, Boswell plays on Sunday Night Football, and who doesn’t love sweating a kicker as their Sunday night hammer?
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Ben Gretch is the Senior Fantasy Analyst at RotoViz, where he authors the weekly column Stealing Signals.
