The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 11.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Cleveland Browns – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Josh Allen projects for the highest ceiling on the week, facing one of the worst defenses in the Clevland Browns, who rank 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Bills are a massive eight-point favorite in a matchup with a 49.5-point total, one of the highest on the slate, and looks to have risen after the news the game was being moved to Detroit due to snow.
Given Allen’s dual-threat nature, the Bills remain one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz). The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 303.7 passing yards per game and a 64.5% completion percentage. In a wild 33-30 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10, Allen passed for 330 yards and one touchdown, battling through an elbow injury, also rushing for 84 yards on six attempts.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Allen appears in matchups above a 49-point total, he averages 27.95 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.16 Plus/Minus and a 63.2% consistency rating. Even with the expensive price tag, Allen can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability, and should also be a popular option for rosters this week, especially in a more clean environment in Detroit.
Top Value: Daniel Jones vs. Detroit Lions – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Daniel Jones projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a New York Giants offense in a home matchup against the Detroit Lions, who, on paper looks to be one of the weaker defenses in the league.
Jones hasn’t had particularly outstanding numbers this season, averaging 177.3 yards per game and 17.3 completions per game. However, his deeply discounted salary signals he may be a fantasy-viable option and may not need to put up an extraordinary stat line. Facing a similar weak opponent in the Houston Texans, a 24-16 win, Jones threw for 197 yards and two touchdowns on 17 passes.
According to PFF, the Lions rank 30 in overall defense, and should last week’s performance be an indicator, Jones deserves a second look, opening up salary to elite skill-position players.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans – $8,900 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel
Saquon Barkley again projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a weak Detroit Lions defense ranked 24th in rushing DVOA.
This season, Barkley, who is responsible for 64% of the Giants’ rushing share, is averaging 22 carries per game and 4.70 yards per attempt. Aside from the volume on the ground, Barkley also averages 4.4 targets per game and looks to be a key component in the Giants offense. In Week 10, the Browns allowed 195 rushing yards to the Miami Dolphins backfield in a 39-17 loss, and if the trend continues for the porous Browns run defense, Saqoun should continue his dominant 2022 season. In a 24-16 win over the Texans, Barkley rushed for 152 yards on 35 attempts, averaging 4.34 yards per carry and finding the endzone one.
Despite the sky-high salary on both sites, Barkley consistently becomes a candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, with tremendous touchdown upside, finding the end zone in six of the nine games this season. Consistent volume should make this elite running back a worthy spend-up in Week 11.
Top Value: David Montgomery at Atlanta Falcons – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
With Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert landing on the IR with a hip injury, David Montgomery should retain the lead back role in Week 11, making him a top value option at running back, in an ideal matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who rank 25th in DVOA.
With Justin Fields and Herbert absorbing a portion of the Bears’ workload in the backfield, Montgomery has seen his rushing share fall to 35%, averaging 12.8 attempts per game and 3.37 yards per carry. The 30% rushing share abandoned by Herbert should be a direct benefit, signaling additional opportunities for the fourth-year back.
In a high-total matchup, Montgomery is a fantasy-relevant option with a reasonable salary on DraftKings and should be a popular option for rosters, with guaranteed volume in the running game.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. Dallas Cowboys – $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys and looks to be in “unfadeable territory,” especially after a clutch fourth-quarter catch in a Week 10 33-30 win over the Buffalo Bills.
Dallas is ranked 11th in pass DVOA — a difficult matchup on paper for the hyper-elite wideout. Jefferson, who has a 29% target share, is the preferred option for quarterback Kirk Cousins, averaging 11.1 targets per game and 15.4 yards per reception. Further, look for Jefferson to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in six of the Vikings’ nine games this season. In the win in Week 10, Jefferson was targeted 16 times, catching 10 passes for 193 yards and one touchdown.
Aside from the volume, Jefferson is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 18 end zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, leading the Vikings’ receiving corps.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Stefon Diggs projects for the highest ceiling in a home matchup with the Detroit Lions. The Week 11 matchup looks ideal for the dominant running back, with the Lions ranking 24th in pass DVOA. The prime beneficiary for quarterback Josh Allen. Diggs averages 11 targets per game and 13.7 yards per reception and is the first look in the red zone, seeing a team-leading 15 targets.
In the 33-30 loss to the Vikings in Week 10, Diggs was targeted 16 times, catching 12 passes for 128 yards and is certainly a candidate for an 85th-percentile outcome, recording more than 100 yards in six of the Bills’ first nine games this season and recording seven touchdowns.
It looks like a tough decision is to be made on which elite wide receiver should anchor lineups.
Top Value: Amon-Ra St. Brown at New York Giants – $7,200 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Amon-Ra St. Brown projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a weak New York Giants defense ranked 23rd in pass DVOA.
St. Brown is the leader in market share in the Lions’ receiving corps, responsible for a 28% target share, and the second-year wideout has been a consistent target for quarterback Jared Goff, seeing at least nine targets in six of the Lions’ first eight games this season.
In a Week 10 31-30 win against the Chicago Bears, St. Brown was targeted 11 times, catching 10 passes for 119 yards. While he has been absent from the endzone since Week 2, the consistent volume makes him a viable fantasy option in an ideal matchup.
With St. Brown priced at $7,200 — a modest salary on DraftKings, be sure to pair him with Giants’ skills players, such as Barkley or even as a bring-back with Daniel Jones if you’re looking to stack this game in any capacity.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Mark Andres vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
On an interesting slate without the typical tight-end pool, Mark Andrews projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Panthers defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA.
Andrews should continue to be the first-look option for quarterback Lamar Jackson, responsible for a team-leading 28% target share. Andrews is averaging 11.6 yards per reception and eight targets per game this season, very similar numbers to Travis Kelce. To add, Andrews is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings, being in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in four of the Ravens’ first eight games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, seeing 13 red zone targets this season.
The Ravens stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look.
Note: Be sure to monitor Andrews’ injury (knee/shoulder) status for the rest of the week.
Top Value: Dalton Schultz at Minnesota Vikings – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Dalton Schultz projects as a top value at tight end, given his digestible salary on DraftKings. Schultz is second in the Cowboys’ receiving corps, responsible for a 17% target share, averaging 9.9 yards per reception and 5.3 targets per game. In the 31-28 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Schultz was targeted eight times, catching six passes from Dak Prescott for 54 yards and one touchdown.
Schultz is a prime candidate for salary relief, despite a more difficult matchup against a Vikings defense ranked 15th in pass DVOA. In a matchup that could have implications for a shootout, Schultz deserves a second look, despite being a popular option for rosters, and should likely be paired with Vikings skill players like Justin Jefferson.
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