The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
The Dolphins are in a great “get right” matchup coming off their bye week at home against the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa is only the fourth-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel but he brings the highest ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to a customized three-way blend of the FantasyLabs projections, THE BLITZ projections, and Chris Raybon’s projections. He has the second-highest median projection on both sites in those aggregated projections as well.
The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL this season and has been especially potent at home in Miami. In those four home games, the team has scored 43.5 points per game. Tagovailoa has thrown 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions in those four contests while averaging over 300 passing yards for 25.6 DraftKings points and 25.4 FanDuel points per game.
This week, Miami has the highest implied team total on the slate after having a bye week last week for coach Mike McDaniel to fine-tune some of the issues that resulted in losses to the Chiefs and Eagles. The team is also expected to get a boost from the return of De’Von Achane (knee) from IR.
Getting a running back healthy might not seem to help the passing game, necessarily, but in the Dolphins offense, Achane does a lot of work as a receiver as well. Having all the playmakers available makes the Dolphins a great stack to consider, and Tua is a top consideration at quarterback in the center of that stack.
Tagovailoa is especially affordable on FanDuel, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings, he is more expensive but is also projected for low ownership and 96% Leverage Rating as a result.
Top Value: Kyler Murray at Houston Texans – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
One of the most dynamic quarterback matchups of the week is Kyler Murray in his second game back from his knee injury against rising star C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Kyler projects to be the best value quarterback of the week with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and the most Pts/Sal in the aggregated projections on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still ranks third in Projected Plus/Minus and tied for second in Pts/Sal.
Last week, Murray looked mobile and effective in his return against the Falcons. Murray relies so much on his legs for his fantasy production that a knee injury is especially concerning, but he was able to move in the pocket and extend plays while also rushing for 33 yards and a touchdown on six carries. He finished with 249 passing yards on 32 attempts, but he fell just short of salary-based expectations since he didn’t throw a touchdown.
This week, Murray should be even more comfortable in the team’s new offensive system under OC Drew Petzing. Murray has a decent matchup against the Texans, who have been winning high-scoring contests the last few weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown seven touchdowns and averaged 305.8 passing yards per game against Houston over the last five weeks. On the season, quarterbacks have also run for three scores against Houston, so Murray may have the opportunity to find the end zone on the ground as well.
Murray always brings a high ceiling due to his rushing potential, and his salary won’t be this affordable if he continues to show he’s back to full strength at the helm of Arizona’s offense.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $9,300 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey is once again the most expensive running back on the slate this week, but he also brings the top ceiling, median, and floor projection in all three of the projection sets used for this post on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His streak of 17 straight games with a touchdown came to an end last week, but he should be ready to bounce back as the 49ers come home to face the Bucs after getting a nice road win in Jacksonville after their bye week.
Coming out of the bye, CMC was back to full strength after dealing with an oblique injury before the week off. He had 95 rushing yards on 16 carries and caught six passes for 47 more yards to still turn in over 20 DraftKings points, even without a touchdown.
His heavy volume as both rusher and receiver makes him a great pay-up option almost every week. On the season, he has 13 touchdowns in nine games and has averaged 25.7 DraftKings points and 22.4 FanDuel points per game. Even though his salary is always high, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his nine games this season.
The Bucs are usually very good against the run, and opposing running backs have only managed one receiving touchdown and no rushing touchdowns against them this season. However, even in this tough matchup, McCaffrey should get back in the end zone this week, and his volume makes him a good pay-up play regardless of matchup.
Top Value: Devin Singletary vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, Devin Singletary shapes up to be a great value play this week. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position by a wide margin in the blended projections and brings a 91% Bargain Rating on that site.
Singletary has filled in very well the past two weeks for Dameon Pierce (ankle), who has yet to return to practice coming into Friday. If Pierce is out again, Singletary will get another chance to step up. He’ll be in a good matchup against the Cardinals, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season. Opposing running backs have averaged 110.7 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards per game while scoring 14 total touchdowns in 10 games.
Last week, Singletary was very effective against the Bengals, rushing for 150 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries and adding an 11-yard reception. He has double-digit carries and at least one catch in four straight games, so the opportunities are clearly available for him to step up for as long as Pierce is sidelined. No other running back had a carry against the Bengals, and Mike Boone only played 14 snaps.
Singletary could even retain a share of the backfield after Pierce returns, but at least for this week, it looks like he’ll be the primary option for Houston in the backfield. In such a good matchup and with an improvingly effective offense, look for another big week for The Motor.
On FanDuel, Singletary has been priced up to $6,500, and Tony Pollard has the top Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way blended projection. If you need a cheaper option on FanDuel, Chuba Hubbard and Zach Charbonnet are the two options that have the best projections for this week. On DraftKings, Hubbard and Jerome Ford join Singletary as strong value plays.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $9,300 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Hill didn’t find the end zone against his former team in Germany before Miami’s bye week, but he’s projected to bounce back in a big way in this juicy matchup against the Raiders. Hill has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings in the three-way blended projections.
He seems to be underpriced based on his expected production, even though he’s the most expensive receiver on the slate. Using the three-way blended projections on DraftKings, Hill has the second-highest Pts/Sal of all receivers and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only the trio of Cardinals’ receivers discussed below. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all wide receivers on FanDuel in the blended projections.
In addition, Hill matches eight Pro Trends on FanDuel and six on DraftKings, and no other receiver on either slate matches more.
Hill has averaged 7.7 catches on 10.8 targets per game on the season while going off for over 100 yards in five games. Four of those five 100+ yard performances came in his four home games, and he averaged 153.3 yards and 32.1 DratKings points in those four home games.
The Raiders have actually done pretty well against opposing wide receivers this year, but Amon-Ra St. Brown did post a 100-yard game against them in Week 8. Besides that matchup with the Lions, the Raiders have only faced the Patriots, Bears, Giants, and Jets over the last five weeks, so this week will be a huge step up in difficulty.
Stacking Tyreek and Tua looks like a strong strategy this week as they return from their bye week to a matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, where they have been almost unstoppable.
Top Value: Rondale Moore at Houston Texans – $3,300 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
The Cardinals’ offense has the top three value wide receivers on DraftKings this week, according to the blended projections. Michael Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Rondale Moore all have much more upside with Murray as opposed to Clayton Tune or even Joshua Dobbs. As a result, they have the top three Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and are each in the top five in Pts/Sal as well.
On FanDuel, they’re a little more expensive, but there is still some good upside to consider. Moore still brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers under $6.5K.
Moore is my favorite value play of the bunch, and he’s also the cheapest option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He brings plenty of big-play potential every time he touches the ball, and last week, Murray did all he could to get the third-year receiver from Purdue involved. Moore had a season-high eight targets and converted a season-high five catches into a season-high 43 receiving yards. He hasn’t gotten into the end zone as a receiver this year but did score against the Cowboys on a rushing play.
He is still a bit of a flier play since he’s yet to go off this year, but you can stack him with Murray for a lineup that has plenty of upside. He led the receiver group in targets last week, and if he continues to get so many chances, he could eventually break off a big gain or two for a monster game.
Other good options to consider as values at wide receiver this week include Tank Dell, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Houston Texans – $4,400 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
In the aggregated projections, McBride has the top ceiling and median projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s a great value since he’s only the fifth-most expensive tight end on FanDuel and the sixth-highest on DraftKings. McBride also has the top Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all tight ends.
Part of the reason that McBride projects so well is that he’s in a great matchup against Houston. Opposing tight ends have averaged 7.1 catches for 63.9 yards per game against Houston and have found the end zone four times.
Another key to McBride’s recent emergence as a top tight end play is his heavy involvement in the offense since the injury to Zach Ertz (quad). McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past five games, with his only disappointment coming with Clayton Tune at quarterback. In Kyler’s debut last week, McBride posted his first 100-yard game. He hauled in 8 of 9 targets against the Falcons and totaled 131 yards.
McBride has at least five targets in five straight games and has averaged 5.6 catches for 67.8 yards per game in those five games. His larger role and solid connection with Kyler Murray make him a top option who also brings lots of salary savings on Sunday.
Top Value: Tyler Conklin at Buffalo Bills – $2,900 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel
Since McBride is such a good value, it makes sense to go ultra-cheap if you go in a different direction. Conklin is extremely cheap on DraftKings, where he had a 90% Bargain Rating and can even make sense in the flex spot at under $3K. Conklin has the third-highest Pts/Sal and Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on DraftKings in the blended projections. On FanDuel, he’s more expensive, but he’s still the third-best value play with a salary under $5K.
In the last two weeks, Conklin has emerged as a top target for Zach Wilson. While the Jets’ offense hasn’t been good at all in those two games, Conklin has exceeded salary-based expectations in both contests and set new season highs in each game. He caught all six of his targets for 66 yards against the Chargers, and then he caught all seven of his targets for 70 yards against the Raiders. He hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, but his increased targets make him a candidate to find paydirt if the Jets can find a way to score.
The Bills have been a good matchup for opposing tight ends, allowing three tight end touchdowns in the last four weeks. Opposing tight ends have averaged 5.6 catches per contest over the last five games against the Bills, so Conklin should find enough space to be a good bargain play in Week 11.
