Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Travis Kelce ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Is Taylor Swift rubbing off on Kelce? All of a sudden, this man is feeling like he’s 22.
In all seriousness, the injuries to the Chiefs’ receiving corps have forced Kelce into a bigger role than the team probably wanted. They kept Kelce under bubble wrap during the regular season last year before erupting in the playoffs. He was following the same trajectory to start this season, but he’s come out of hibernation early. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in three straight.
Despite being on the backside of his career, Kelce still clearly has some gas left in the tank. Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce is among the league leaders in most of the important receiving metrics. He’s posted an 89% route participation, 32% target share, and 32% air yards share. Those numbers are closer to what you’d see for a WR1 than a tight end.
Kelce’s salary has also failed to adjust to his recent production. He’s priced at just $6,300 for this week’s matchup vs. the Bills, and Kelce has historically averaged a +5.17 Plus/Minus with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). That price tag would’ve been fine if he was producing like he did to start the year, but it’s simply too cheap for a guy getting 10+ targets a game. Kelce leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, so if you can afford him, he’s an elite option vs. the Bills.
Dawson Knox ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, the Bills are going to be without starting tight end Dalton Kincaid this week. That opens up a big hole in their passing attack. Kincaid has been targeted on 25% of his routes run this season, and his 20% target share overall is just slightly behind Khalil Shakir for the team lead.
Without Kincaid, Knox should assume close to an every-down role this week. He hasn’t been a huge factor for the Bills this season – he’s been targeted on just 9% of his routes run – but Knox has thrived as the Bills’ TE1 in the past. He scored 15 touchdowns in the two seasons before the team drafted Kincaid, and he averaged 3.2 receptions and 36.8 receiving yards per game.
Those aren’t elite figures, but they’re more than good enough at his current price tag. Knox might be a bit over-owned in tournaments, but he’s a low-risk target for cash games.
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Davis Allen ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel)
Allen is even cheaper than Knox, and he’s seen a big uptick in responsibilities for the Rams of late. He came seemingly out of nowhere to post a 45% route participation in Week 9, and he followed that up with an 88% route participation last week. That’s an elite figure. Kelce, Trey McBride, and Cade Otton are the only tight ends with a mark that large over the course of the full season.
Allen won’t be a focal point of the Rams’ passing attack, which has plenty of mouths to feed with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. However, he’s been targeted on at least 14% of his routes run in back-to-back weeks. He had a 15% target share overall in Week 10, and he responded with 8.4 DraftKings points.
On a slate with a ton of high-priced options to consider at other positions, saving as much money as possible at tight end is a viable strategy. Allen checks that box. Only Kelce and Knox are showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency than Allen on DraftKings.
Evan Engram ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
The Jaguars’ offense was pretty much a disaster last week. They racked up less than 150 yards vs. the Vikings, and Mac Jones looked overmatched as the team’s starting quarterback. He completed just three passes to wide receivers, which is the same number that he completed to opposing defenders. That’s not good.
Jones has always preferred throwing to tight ends, and that was on full display last week. Engram, Brenton Strange, and Luke Farrell combined for 13 targets on Jones’ 22 attempts. Engram led the way with eight targets, which he turned into six catches for 40 yards.Overall, Engram had a 38% target share in that contest, and the Jaguars’ passing volume could be cranked way up in Week 11. They’re listed as 14-point underdogs vs. the Lions, so the Jaguars could spend the majority of this game playing from behind. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee that Jones is going to throw the ball 40+ times, but it’s well within the realm of possibility. If that happens, Engram could eclipse double-digit targets pretty easily. He’s underpriced across the industry, trailing only Kelce at the position in projected Plus/Minus.
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Taysom Hill ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Hill is someone that should always be on your radar whenever he’s not expected to be popular. That’s the case this week vs. the Browns. Hill is projected for less than four percent ownership across the industry, and he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a significantly higher clip.
Hill is less of a tight end and more of a gadget player. He gets a handful of opportunities each week, and he’s always a threat to punch in a touchdown. He did that two weeks ago vs. the Panthers – resulting in 16.0 DraftKings points – and he had two touchdowns vs. the Falcons back in Week 3. There’s always some downside with Hill, but he also possesses significant upside.
Brock Bowers ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Bowers has taken the league by storm as a rookie despite tight end being a notoriously tough position for young players to make an impact. He’s second at the position in PPR points per game, sandwiched between stalwarts George Kittle and Kelce.
Since the Raiders lost Davante Adams, Bowers’ role has only grown. He’s posted a 30% target share and 30% air yards share over his past five games, and he’s finished as a top-six TE in four of five weeks.
The only reason Bowers isn’t going to be more popular on this slate is because of Kelce. He’s going to soak up most of the ownership in this price range, so he’s an interesting pivot to diversify your lineups.
David Njoku ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Most of the top tight ends stand out as better values on DraftKings than FanDuel this week, but Njoku is the exception. He comes at a significant discount compared to guys like Kelce and Bowers, but he has the best matchup of the bunch. He’s taking on the Saints, who have been an absolute disaster defensively this season. They’re 27th in EPA per play defensively since Week 3, and Njoku’s +3.1 Opponent Plus/Minus is the top mark at the position.
His ceiling might not be quite as high as the top tight ends in fantasy, but he still has upside. He’s posted a 22% target share since the team traded away Amari Cooper, and the offense has been more successful since switching to Jameis Winston at quarterback.
