In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Saquon Barkley
- Josh Jacobs
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel): New York Giants (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (45 total)
Saquon Barkley is coming off a career-high 35 carries, as he ran for 152 yards and a touchdown against the putrid Texans’ defense. He gets another easy matchup this week against the Lions, who rank in the bottom six in success rate and yards per carry to opposing backs.
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert combined to touch up the Lions defense, running for 94 yards on 19 carries. Justin Fields took most of the ground game success for himself, but the Chicago backfield certainly pitched in. The good news for Barkley is that this Giants’ running game isn’t some “three-headed attack.” This is a one-man show, as Barkley leads the NFL in touches with 228.
Barkley has 20+ carries in four straight games and has three or more targets in all but two games. We haven’t seen Barkley erupt since Week 1, but this is as good of a spot as any. Barkley racked up yards against Houston on the ground last week, but he only saw one target. We’d expect that to be rectified this week, as Barkley is a big part of the passing game.
There isn’t too much to pick apart here. Barkley has the most valuable workload in the league, and he’s playing one of the worst defenses in the league.
He is the top back in our Tournament Model, and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Josh Jacobs ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (41.5 total)
Josh Jacobs’ workload had dipped in Weeks 8 and 9, as he wasn’t seeing his usual 20+ carries and a handful of targets. He returned to form last week, handling 21 carries and catching six of eight targets against the Colts. He racked up 106 scrimmage yards, topping 100 yards for the first time since Week 7.
Jacobs was inefficient with his touches against the Colts but should be more efficient against a beatable Broncos’ run defense. Jacobs had 28 carries for 144 yards and two touchdowns the first time these teams met while catching five balls for 31 yards. The Broncos swallowed up Derrick Henry last week, but they are giving up the seventh-most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year.
Being a road underdog hurts Jacobs’ outlook, but the spread is under a field goal, and these teams are fairly evenly matched. A running back with Jacobs’ touch count in a plus matchup is hard to overlook.
He’s the top back in Projected Plus/Minus while being the top back in our Cash Game Model and Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jonathan Taylor ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (+7) vs. Philadelphia Colts (45.5 total)
Jonathan Taylor looked like his old self last week, taking 24 touches for 163 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. He showed the explosiveness that we haven’t seen in a while, ripping off a 66-yard touchdown. It appears as if Taylor is healthy, as he was dealing with an ankle injury in the middle of the season. He practiced without limitation last week and wasn’t even on the injury report this week.
The Commanders may have shown the blueprint on how to attack this Philadelphia defense. Without Jordan Davis, the Eagles run defense has been porous. They weren’t very efficient with their touches, but the Commanders stuck to the ground game. Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson combined to carry the ball 40 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns. With Davis off the field, the Eagles are 31st in success rate to opposing backs while giving up 5.09 yards per carry.
Dameon Pierce ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+3) vs. Washington Commanders (40.5 total)
Dameon Pierce has consistently been able to produce despite negative game scripts. He carried the ball 17 times for 94 yards last week while catching two of three targets for 28 yards. He has 100 scrimmage yards in six of his last seven games, as he’s been utilized a lot through the air. He’s also averaged 22.7 touches in his past seven games, ranking up there with some of the top backs in the league.
This is going to be a battle of volume vs. matchup, as the Commanders have a stout run defense. They’re allowing merely 4.16 yards per carry and the fourth least rushing fantasy points in the league. We’ve seen Pierce fair well in some unideal spots, and this sets up for another one.
David Montgomery ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (49.5 total)
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert have practically been splitting backfield touches as of late, with Montgomery barely out-touching his teammate. With Herbert heading to IR, we could be seeing Montgomery as a workhorse back. He’ll need to see a boatload of touches because Montgomery is not an efficient runner. He is 42nd in success rate, 31st in rate of explosive runs, and 44th in rate of carries to result in a first down or touchdown.
Atlanta has given up the seventh-most rushing fantasy points to opposing backs and just got run over by D’Onta Foreman. Foreman carried the ball 31 times for 130 yards and a touchdown, averaging only 4.2 yards per carry. We could need to see a similar touch count for Montgomery to be worth it in fantasy.
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