In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tony Pollard
- Jerome Ford
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
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Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Tony Pollard ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers (42.5 total)
Tony Pollard started the year as an inefficient back with elite volume. Sadly, there’s been no change to his efficiency, but his volume has dipped. He has single-digit DraftKings points in five of his last six games, including three in a row.
The problem for Pollard is that even in these big wins, he isn’t contributing to the production. Dallas keeps going up on teams thanks to the passing game, and then Pollard barely touches the ball in the second half due to the blowout.
The good news is that if there’s ever a get-right spot for Pollard, it’s this weekend. Carolina has been hemorrhaging production to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing backs.
Pollard’s price keeps decreasing, but at some point, he’s going to explode. He’s second in Projected Plus/Minus and tied atop the position in Points/Salary. He’s the top back in both our Cash Game and Tournament Model, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Jerome Ford ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (33 total)
The hierarchy of Cleveland’s backfield started to shift on Sunday, with Jerome Ford handling a season-high 64% of the backfield touches. He carried the ball 17 times for 107 yards while catching his only target for two yards. Ford saw 20 carries and seven targets against Arizona two weeks ago, and it’s likely they take a very run-heavy approach with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
The matchup with Pittsburgh is appealing, with Pittsburgh allowing the eighth-highest yards per carry and 11th-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
Ford leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus while tying with Pollard in Points/Salary. He’s the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (40 total)
Travis Etienne Jr. was phased out of last week’s blowout loss, only totaling nine carries and four targets. However, he’s leaned on heavily in neutral and positive game scripts, which we should see this week against Tennessee. Prior to last week, he’d seen 25, 23, 31, 21, 19, and 30 opportunities in his six prior games. Jacksonville is set up as a home favorite against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the sixth-highest yards per carry to opposing backs since Week 5.
Devin Singletary ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (48 total)
Devin Singletary has been utilized heavily with Dameon Pierce sidelined. Pierce returned to practice Friday, so although I’m not expecting him to suit up, it’s still worth monitoring. Singletary saw 30 carries against Cincinnati, totaling 150 yards and a touchdown.
He gets another soft landing spot here as a home favorite against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed the third-most DraftKings points and second-most touchdowns to opposing running backs. If Pierce returns, then I won’t have much interest in Singletary. However, if Pierce remains sidelined, then Singletary is a solid value play with solid upside.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Austin Ekeler ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers (44 total)
Austin Ekeler remains one of the best dual-threat backs in the league. Even when he’s inefficient on the ground, his usage through the air and touchdown equity keep him capable of posting a big score. He only had 67 yards on the ground last week, but he caught four balls for 48 yards and found the end zone to notch his third-straight game above 20 DraftKings points.
He’s posted solid scores despite facing solid defenses as of late and now gets a soft landing spot against Green Bay. Ekeler dominated volume in the passing game when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were off the field last season. Williams is obviously already out, but Allen is questionable due to an AC joint sprain. If Allen misses or is limited, we could see a ton of volume funnel in Ekeler’s direction.
Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and Ekeler is going overlooked. He’s one of my favorite tournament options this week.
