The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Geno Smith ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Quarterback doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong group this week, especially on DraftKings. In fact, only one player is currently projected for a positive Plus/Minus: Smith.
Smith was a bit of a rollercoaster in the Seahawks’ last game. He threw three interceptions – two of which came in goal-to-go situations – which ultimately helped cost his team the win. However, he still racked up 363 yards and three touchdowns, which is really all we care about for fantasy purposes. He finished with 28.12 DraftKings points, which was his highest tally of the season.
The Seahawks are coming off a bye in Week 10, which should benefit Smith and the rest of the offense. Specifically, DK Metcalf appears poised to return to action after missing the past two games. Metcalf has been phenomenal this season, so his return will give Smith a significant boost.
The matchup vs. the 49ers is also solid. San Francisco has morphed into an offensive machine in recent years, so opposing quarterbacks typically have to throw to keep up. The total on this game sits at 48.0 points, which is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
That said, the biggest selling point is his price tag. He’s priced at just $5,700 on DraftKings, which is just the 13th-highest mark on the main slate. He has the fourth-highest median projection in our NFL Models, so he’s undoubtedly underpriced.
Anthony Richardson ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Smith is still a viable option on FanDuel, but it’s hard to pass up on Richardson for -$1,200 less. Richardson has been a headache for fantasy players for most of the year. He’s arguably the greatest athlete to ever suit up at quarterback in the NFL, but he’s also been a historically bad passer. He’s nearly off the chart in terms of EPA + CPOE composite; that’s how bad he’s been compared to his peers.
That said, there are plenty of guys who have turned in solid fantasy production without being great passers. We’ve already seen Richardson do it once this season, racking up 27.08 FanDuel points vs. the Texans in Week 1.
It’s also important to remember that Richardson is still extremely raw. He’s made just 10 starts at the NFL level, and he was only a one-year starter in college. He’s still very much a work in progress, and his passing numbers through his first 10 games aren’t that far off from someone like Josh Allen. The only way for him to get better is by playing, and the book on Richardson is far from closed.
The good news for Richardson is that he shouldn’t have to throw that much this week. The Jets have been a disaster defending the run this season, ranking 26th in rush defense EPA. Richardson and Jonathan Taylor should be able to chew through this opposing front seven, and Richardson’s size makes him a viable goal-line threat as well.
He might be a bit more volatile than you’d like to see from a cash-game quarterback, but he’s the cheapest starting QB on the entire FanDuel slate. That’s a mistake given his rushing upside.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Brock Purdy ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
On the other side of the Seahawks game, the 49ers have one of the highest ceilings of the week. They’re currently implied for 27.25 points, which trails only the Lions’ mark of 30.5.
The 49ers got significantly healthier last week, with Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings both returning from extended absences. It was McCaffrey’s first game of the entire season, and Purdy responded with one of his best games of the year. He racked up 353 passing yards on 36 attempts, and he added two touchdowns.
Ultimately, this unit now looks pretty similar to the one that was absolutely dominant last season. They were the top offense in the league in EPA per play, and Purdy finished as the No. 8 QB in fantasy points per game.
Purdy has also historically done some of his best work vs. the Seahawks. He’s scored at least 24.1 DraftKings points in three of their past four meetings, including their first matchup in 2024-25 (per the Trends tool). This feels like a spot where the 49ers could be poised to erupt.
Bo Nix ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
The Broncos are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs last week, but they’re going to have to dust themselves off quickly. They have a big showdown vs. the Falcons in Week 11, and they can’t afford to drop another game.
Nix started the year by looking like one of the worst quarterbacks in football, which is not surprising for a rookie. The good news is that Nix has taken some big strides since then. He’s finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in five of his past six starts, including a QB2 finish in Week 8 vs. the Panthers.
No one is ever going to confuse Nix with Michael Vick, but he does more with his legs than the general football fan might realize. He’s averaged just under 30 rushing yards per game, and he’s added five rushing touchdowns. He’s added 218 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns over his past six starts, so he’s been a steady fantasy contributor.
His ceiling is a bit higher than usual this week vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has been a mediocre pass defense this season, ranking 23rd in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Nix has also been at his best at home this season, averaging 21.25 DraftKings points and a +3.49 Plus/Minus in four starts in Denver. He’s been favored in two of those outings, and he’s scored at least 23.14 DraftKings points in both.
Russell Wilson ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Chef Wilson is officially back in the kitchen, and Russ has been cooking up some good stuff since taking over in Pittsburgh. He’s the No. 7 QB in fantasy in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in two of three outings.
He draws one of the best matchups possible this week vs. the Ravens. Baltimore is not nearly as stout defensively as in years past, ranking 30th in pass defense EPA. However, their offense is an absolute juggernaut. That sets up a scenario where opposing QBs have to throw the ball against them for four full quarters. As a result, they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
We’ve seen numerous QBs go absolutely off vs. the Ravens of late. Baker Mayfield went off for 32.0 DraftKings points. Dak Prescott had 32.86. Joe Burrow has gone for at least 36.72 on two separate occasions. Wilson might not be in the same class as those guys, but he has significantly more upside than usual. Add in an expanded role for Mike Williams – who caught a touchdown in his first game with the Steelers – and there’s plenty to like with Wilson at a sub-$6k salary.
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Sam Darnold ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Is Darnold turning back into a pumpkin? After starting the year strong, he’s now posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. That includes a dreadful 9.44 DraftKings points last week vs. the Jaguars, who have been one of the friendliest matchups in fantasy. He threw three interceptions vs. Jacksonville, and he didn’t lead the Vikings to a single offensive touchdown.
Stil, I think Darnold has earned the benefit of the doubt. He has one of the best groups of pass-catchers in the league, especially after getting T.J. Hockenson back recently. Kevin O’Connell is also an elite coach and play-caller, so he should continue to put Darnold in positions to succeed.
Darnold is projected for less than four percent ownership on this slate, but he’s displayed plenty of upside for most of the year. He’s an interesting bounce-back candidate.
Josh Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
It feels like a week where the ownership is going to be spread out at quarterback. No one is projected for more than 8.8% ownership on FanDuel, and the guys at the top of the pricing spectrum could be overlooked.
Of that group, no one is showing up with a higher optimal lineup rate than Allen. He hasn’t been at his best for fantasy purposes this season, but he has scored at least 20.2 DraftKings points in five straight games. His matchup vs. the Chiefs is also tough, but Allen has absolutely thrived against KC for most of his career. He’s scored at least 21.52 DraftKings points in six straight games vs. the Chiefs, and he’s had more than 30 DraftKings points in four of them. That includes last year’s playoff matchup when Allen ran for 72 yards and two scores.
Ultimately, this is a bit of a statement game for the Bills. They’ve yet to prove that they can beat Patrick Mahomes, so expect them to throw the kitchen sink at them this week.
Justin Herbert ($7,300 FanDuel)
Herbert is only available on FanDuel, which includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Bengals. That said, Herbert is one of the strongest plays on that site.
The Chargers started the year as a run-first offense, and they reverted to that scheme last week vs. the Titans. That said, that was a game that they were winning big throughout. They’ll likely have to throw the ball a bit more to keep up with the Bengals, and Herbert has played some of the best football of his career this season. If he can maintain that efficiency while increasing his volume, he has the chance for a massive performance.
