Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 11.
QB Breakdown
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
For the second game this year, Jackson last week had a perfect 158.3 passer rating — and that wasn’t even the most impressive part of his performance.
He isn’t the 2019 MVP frontrunner, but he should be.
Jackson had yet another Millionaire Maker-winning performance in Week 10, and for the season, he’s easily the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 28.3 DraftKings and 27.0 FanDuel points per game. He’s in peak form.
No quarterback in NFL history has ever had 3,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Jackson is on pace for 3,619.6 and 1,248. He’s doing what no quarterback has done in the modern era.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
This is a great spot for Jacobs, whom I want to roster in all formats.
In the big picture, almost no running back should ever be drafted in Round 1, but through nine games, Jacobs has more than lived up to expectations.
- Fantasy production: 17.7 DraftKings points, +6.37 Plus/Minus, 77.8% Consistency Rating
- Football production: 168-811-7 rushing and 14-132-0 receiving on 20 targets
Jacobs’ production hasn’t been even, but fortunately his splits are easy to spot and rather predictable.
- Wins (five games): 23.1 DraftKings points, +11.5 Plus/Minus, 117 yards and 1.4 touchdowns
- Losses (four games): 11.0 DraftKings points, -0.07 Plus/Minus, 89.5 yards and zero touchdowns
If the Raiders win, Jacobs is likely to have a big game, and it just so happens that they are double-digit home favorites against the hapless 0-9 Bengals, who will be giving rookie fourth-round quarterback Ryan Finley just his second NFL start.
With the Bengals likely to struggle to score, Jacobs could get 20-plus opportunities in a run-heavy game script. In his five wins, Jacobs has gotten 22 carries and 2.6 targets per game.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
UPDATE (Nov. 16): TE George Kittle (knee) and Matt Breida (ankle) are doubtful. WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) is a questionable game-time decision.
With No. 1 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) questionable and tight end George Kittle (knee) out, Samuel warrants strong consideration in cash games and tournaments.
Not only is he likely to be the team’s top option in the passing game, but he is also extremely cheap because his pricing was set last Sunday and he played in Monday Night Football. As a result, his salaries don’t take into account the fact that Sanders was injured during the game, Kittle didn’t play and Samuel hit career-high marks with 11 targets, eight receptions and 112 yards receiving.
So Samuel is inexpensive relative to the usage he’s likely to get, and regardless of his opportunity, I like him a lot as an emerging first-year talent.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Eric Ebron: Indianapolis Colts
In the words of Mina Caputo: “The river runs red.”
Last year, Ebron had 15 touchdowns in 18 games. This year, three in nine. Last year, he had 6.9 targets per game. This year, 4.8. If you’ve been a 2019 Ebron investor, you’re in pain.
Do I really want to roster Ebron? No. Am I going to? Actually, maybe I will.
The Colts are without No. 1 wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (calf), and this year Ebron has averaged 6.3 targets in three Hilton-less games. Last week, after telling head coach Frank Reich that he wanted to be more involved in the offense, Ebron hit season-high marks with 12 targets, five receptions and a 61% snap rate.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
