The Five Under Five focuses on players projected to have less than five percent ownership in large-field guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
QB: Jay Cutler
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
The Dolphins offense has sputtered all year, scoring only 15.2 points per game (PPG) and earning just 275 yards of total offense per game. However, Weeks 9-10 were much better. Jay Cutler led the Dolphins to 45 total points and had five passing touchdowns. In those two weeks, he held a 75.7 percent adjusted completion rate, scoring over 42 DraftKings points and 0.5 fantasy points per dropback. The recent bounceback makes sense, as it coincides with the return of a healthy DeVante Parker, a reduction in sack rate, and an increase in running back efficiency. Over the last two weeks Parker has racked up 11 receptions for 142 yards, the offensive line has yielded just one sack, and Kenyan Drake has averaged over eight yards on his 24 touches. Cutler’s home matchup with the Buccaneers is a treat. In every road game this year, the Bucs defense has yielded at least 30 total points, and quarterbacks have averaged 23 DraftKings PPG. This may be the one week in which you can consider him in a stack with Parker, especially on FanDuel, where Parker has a 98 percent Bargain Rating in our Models.
RB: Austin Ekeler
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
In Week 11 there are few better leverage plays on the board than Austin Ekeler. The Bills rushing defense has been atrocious of late, yielding nine rushing touchdowns in the past three weeks. Melvin Gordon is projected for nearly 25 percent ownership. Gordon is a solid play, as he owns the majority of snaps and touches, but Ekeler is nipping at his heels. For three straight weeks he’s seen over 30 percent of the team’s snaps. In Week 10, he had 15 touches for 122 total yards and two touchdowns. Those were all season highs for the rookie. What Ekeler offers above and beyond Gordon is rushing efficiency. Gordon still can’t break 4.0 yards per carry, but Ekeler has been able to grind out a higher rushing success rate on early downs and nearly 5.0 yards per carry. You may not be able to stomach around 10 touches and a snap rate below 40 percent, but that’s comparable to what you got out of Alvin Kamara early in the season and get out of Patriots running backs now. We could see a two-headed backfield in one of the best rushing matchups on the board, and Ekeler offers leverage in large-field GPPs against lineups featuring Gordon.
WR: A.J. Green
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 2-4 FanDuel
There are only so many weeks when one can get a top-five fantasy wideout below five percent ownership. A.J. Green will be on the road in Denver this week and projects to be the lowest-owned he’s been all year. The shine of the Denver defense is slowly starting to fade, as it allowed 92 points over the last two weeks. The secondary simply hasn’t been shutting wide receivers down as it once did. Alshon Jeffery beat them for his best game of 2017, scoring twice with Aqib Talib in coverage. On both touchdowns, Jeffery blew up Talib’s attempts at press coverage and had him beat within five yards. Green and Jeffery are both listed at 6’4” and over 210 pounds. In three-receiver sets, Green will likely see Bradley Roby, who has yielded 0.31 fantasy points and 1.28 yards per route covered according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Those numbers put him in company with some of fantasy’s favorite cornerback targets: Johnathan Joseph, Jalen Mills, and Xavien Howard. The Cincinnati offense has been one of the league’s worst by many measures, but as Green proved last week he’s still their best hope and a viable fantasy player.
WR: Marvin Jones
Projected Ownership: 2-4 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
Playing Marvin Jones this week may be one of the easiest ways to exploit recency bias in DFS. After three straight weeks of more than 20 DraftKings points, Jones was smothered by Jason McCourty, who grades out as PFF’s No. 2 corner and has been trouble for even elite receivers, holding A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins to just four total receptions. While the Bears pass unit is solid, ranking 11th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), it has struggled with No. 1 wide receivers, ranking 28th in DVOA against that position. Last week Davante Adams piled on the season-long trend, gaining 90 yards and a touchdown with Kyle Fuller in coverage. Jones will get Kyle Fuller this week. Fuller ranks as PFF’s No. 90 corner and has allowed 0.37 fantasy points and 1.94 yards per route — the most of all the Bears corners. Over the last two years, Jones has smashed inside the NFC North, averaging 15.58 DraftKings PPG. With plenty of other options in the mid-range of pricing, players will write off Jones after he burned them last week.
TE: Vernon Davis
Projected Ownership: 0-1 percent DraftKings and 0-1 FanDuel
The presence of numerous high-priced, top-tier tight ends may push people away from the value of a player like Vernon Davis in Week 11. Four different pass catchers have been ruled out for the Redskins due to injury. He’s been filling in for Jordan Reed since Week 7. In the last four weeks, Davis has seen 28 targets for 19 receptions and 235 total yards, scoring 43 DraftKings points in total. In our FanDuel models, Davis has a 99 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends.
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