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Week 10 NFL Fantasy RB Breakdown: Antonio Gibson, Infant Sorrow

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The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday evening).

  • Alvin Kamara: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (STD)
  • Chase Edmonds: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 3 (Half PPR) | No. 3 (STD)
  • Aaron Jones: No. 4 (PPR) | No. 4 (Half PPR) | No. 4 (STD)
  • Antonio Gibson: No. 13 (PPR) | No. 12 (Half PPR) | No. 13 (STD)
  • Darrell Henderson: No. 19 (PPR) | No. 18 (Half PPR) | No. 17 (STD)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (50 Over/Under)

After putting up “just” 1,330 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage last year, Kamara now has 1,036 and eight in eight games.

  • Week 1 (vs. TB): 23.7 PPR, 18.7 STD | 12-16-1 | 5-51-1, eight targets
  • Week 2 (at LV): 38.4 PPR, 29.4 STD | 13-79-2 | 9-95-0, nine targets
  • Week 3 (vs. GB): 44.7 PPR, 31.7 STD | 6-58-0 | 13-139-2, 14 targets
  • Week 4 (at DET): 20.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 19-83-1 | 3-36-0, four targets
  • Week 5 (vs. LAC): 19.9 PPR, 11.9 STD | 11-45-0 | 8-74-0, 10 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. CAR): 22.8 PPR, 14.8 STD | 14-83-0 | 8-65-0, eight targets
  • Week 8 (at CHI): 25.3 PPR, 16.3 STD | 12-67-0 | 9-96-0, 13 targets
  • Week 9 (at TB): 15.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 9-40-1 | 5-9-0, six targets

With the exception of last week, when the Saints trounced the Buccaneers and could afford to give him much of the game off in a 38-3 victory, Kamara has consistently dominated.

It helps that Kamara is easily No. 1 at the position with 72 targets overall and 73.8 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.

What’s great about Kamara isn’t just his workload, which is elite. This year he’s No. 2 behind only the small-sampled Christian McCaffrey with 20.9 expected fantasy points per game.

What’s really great about Kamara is that he has regained his early-career efficiency. In 2017-18, Kamara averaged 6.6 yards per touch, but last year — hampered by knee, ankle and back injuries — he dropped to an average of 5.3. By his own estimation, he played at 75% in 2019.

In 2020, he has jumped back up to 6.6 yards per touch. Kamara indeed is back to 100%, and that’s reflected in the extent to which he has outperformed: Kamara is No. 3 at the position with 5.6 fantasy points over expectation per game.

In every game but one this year, Kamara has been a fantasy RB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Kamara is not without his concerns this week.

For the most of the season, Kamara has been the team’s top receiver in the absence of No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas, who just returned from ankle and hamstring injuries last week. In Kamara’s six games without Thomas (Weeks 2-8), he had an obscene 26% market share of target.

In his two games with Thomas this year, Kamara has seen significantly fewer targets and as a result enjoyed far less receiving and fantasy production (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With Thomas on the field, Kamara is destined for fewer pass-game opportunities. That’s a fact.

But I’m not overly concerned with these splits. In his first three years (2017-19), Kamara played all his regular-season games with Thomas, and he was the No. 2 back across that time with his 20% target share, trailing only McCaffrey (23%). Even with Thomas, Kamara should still have elite receiving usage.

Another potential concern is the matchup. On paper, it doesn’t look good for Kamara. The 49ers are No. 6 with a -23.0% rush-defense DVOA and also No. 13 with a -6.2% pass-defense DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders).

But I’m not too worried. The 49ers might be without seven key players on that side of the ball.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe, IR)

And with his high-volume role and three-down skill set, Kamara is a nearly matchup-proof player anyway.

And it helps that he’s on the positive side of his favorite/underdog splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Favorite (44 games): 18.9 FanDuel points | 65.9% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (14 games): 16.2 FanDuel points | 57.1% Consistency Rating

One final concern is the game total, which opened at 53.5 points but has been driven down to 50 at most sportsbooks and even 49.5 at a couple places despite 65% of the money betting on the over (as of Wednesday morning, per our Action Network Odds page).

That the total has dropped so much even with most of the money backing the over is a clear sign that at least some sharp money is on the under. There might be fewer points than expected in this game.

But let’s be real: We’re talking about a game at the Mercedes Superdome, the Coors Field of Fantasy Football. With quarterback Drew Brees, the over in Saints home games is 69-49-2, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. In New Orleans, points tend to flow like bacchanal wine.

Kamara leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections. In the immortal words of George Costanza, “Drink up.”

Kamara is a top-tier RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Chase Edmonds: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (56.5 O/U)

Writer’s Note (11/11): I wrote the following analysis on Edmonds … and then news broke that starter Kenyan Drake (ankle) has returned to practice. If he plays this weekend, much of wrote I just wrote will be irrelevant. Life. It’s something.

Ah, how long ago it seems, when Edmonds looked like an automatic smash play as a home favorite against a poor AFC East run defense.

To be young: Week 9 … those were the days.

But it’s now Week 10. We’re older. Wiser. And poorer — because Edmonds last week had just 88 yards.

Only 88 yards … on 28 touches.

Pain. Pleasure. Twinsies.

Let’s not get hung up on what Edmonds didn’t do last week. Let’s focus on the fact that he led all running backs with his 96% snap rate and 44% opportunity share.

He’s still delicious.

Before the season started, Edmonds was one of the top players in Koerner’s backup running back rankings, and this week he will once again lead the backfield in the absence of starter Kenyan Drake (ankle), who exited Week 7 early with an injury and is yet to return to practice.

I expect Edmonds to get 20-plus touches for the second straight week, because after him the Cardinals have nothing but a coterie of backfield nonentities.

The Cardinals are highly incentivized not to let any back other than Edmonds touch the ball.

Despite playing behind Drake this year, Edmonds hasn’t trailed him by much in expected points per game, and he has markedly outperformed Drake in fantasy points over expectation both rushing and receiving (ruFPOE & reFPOE).

  • Kenyan Drake: 13.1 expected points | -0.2 ruFPOE | -0.8 reFPOE
  • Chase Edmonds: 10.1 expected points | +0.2 ruFPOE | +1.6 reFPOE

Even as a change-of-pace back for most of the year, Edmonds has been at least a fantasy RB2 in over half his games this season.

Edmonds has a strong matchup against the Bills, who are No. 32 with a pathetic 32.5 run-defense grade (per Pro Football Focus).

In nine games, the Bills have allowed a league-high nine fantasy RB1/2 performances.

That’ll do.

Even with his disappointing Week 9, Edmonds has done well in his two games as a lead back.

I’m sure I’m not the only one among us who right now has the opening lines of John Milton’s “Lycidas” coursing through his brain.

Yet once more, O ye laurels, and once more
Ye myrtles brown, with ivy never sere …

Yet once more, Edmonds is a high-end RB1 in season-long leagues. He’s also the No. 1 back in the Raybon Models for DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with his +3.77 and +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus values.

Aaron Jones: Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 O/U)

Even though the Packers drafted early-down grinder A.J. Dillon in Round 2 this offseason, Jones has maintained his role as the lead back. His snap rate is lower, but his share of team opportunities (carries plus targets) is on par with where it was last year when Jones had 1,558 yards and an NFL-high 19 touchdowns from scrimmage.

  • 2019 (16 games): 61% snap rate | 32% opportunity share
  • 2020 (six games): 56% snap rate | 34% opportunity share

For 2020, Jones has 629 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing two games and playing through a calf injury in Week 9. Jones is No. 2 with 0.56 PPR and 0.46 STD points per snap and No. 4 with 19.3 expected fantasy points and 43.7 AirYAC per game. He’s doing it again.

And with 10 days to recover after Thursday Night Football, he should be ready to go and close to 100% healthy for Week 10.

He hasn’t been prolific in his past two games, but even when struggling he has still put up fantasy points, and in every game this season he has 15-plus opportunities.

  • Week 1 (at MIN): 17.6 PPR, 13.6 STD | 16-66-1 | 4-10-0, six targets
  • Week 2 (vs. DET): 45.6 PPR, 41.6 STD | 18-168-2 | 4-68-1, eight targets
  • Week 3 (at NO): 16.6 PPR, 14.6 STD | 16-69-1 | 2-17-0, four targets
  • Week 4 (vs. ATL): 22.1 PPR, 17.1 STD | 15-71-0 | 5-40-1, five targets
  • Week 6 (at TB): 13.1 PPR, 10.1 STD | 10-15-1 | 3-26-0, five targets
  • Week 9 (at SF): 12.9 PPR, 7.9 STD | 15-58-0 | 5-21-0, five targets

What Jones really has going for him this week is his matchup against the Jaguars, who have been abused by almost every running back to face them over the past calendar year.

Seriously, the list is incredibly long.

  • Carlos Hyde (Week 9): 14.0 PPR, 14.0 STD | 19-160-0
  • Duke Johnson (Week 9): 19.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 7-13-1 | 5-68-0, five targets
  • BYE WEEK (Week 10): The Jags somehow made their run defense worse during the bye.
  • Marlon Mack (Week 11): 16.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 14-109-1
  • Jonathan Williams (Week 11): 15.7 PPR, 14.7 STD | 13-116-0 | 1-31-0, one target
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 11): 12.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 3-11-1 | 3-24-0, four targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 12): 28.5 PPR, 27.5 STD | 19-159-2 | 1-16-0, one target
  • Peyton Barber (Week 13): 18.4 PPR, 18.4 STD | 17-44-2
  • Austin Ekeler (Week 14): 31.3 PPR, 27.3 STD | 8-101-0 | 4-112-1, five targets
  • Melvin Gordon III (Week 14): 19.4 PPR, 14.4 STD | 12-55-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
  • Josh Jacobs (Week 15): 12.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 24-89-0 | 2-20-0, three targets
  • Devonta Freeman (Week 16): 33.7 PPR, 24.7 STD | 13-53-1 | 9-74-1, 10 targets
  • Brian Hill & Qadree Ollison (Week 16): 12.9 PPR, 12.9 STD | 8-69-1
  • Marlon Mack (Week 17): 19.7 PPR, 19.7 STD | 15-77-2 | 0-0-0, one target
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 17): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 7-34-0 | 3-22-0, five targets
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 1): 27.3 PPR, 19.3 STD | 7-28-1 | 8-45-1, eight targets
  • Jonathan Taylor (Week 1): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0 six targets
  • Marlon Mack (Week 1, injured): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 4-26-0 | 3-30-0, three targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 2): 8.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 25-84-0 | 0-0-0, two targets
  • Myles Gaskin & Jordan Howard (Week 3): 20.6 PPR, 15.6 STD | 25-67-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
  • Joe Mixon (Week 4): 42.1 PPR, 36.1 STD | 25-151-2 | 6-30-1, six targets
  • David Johnson (Week 5): 12.3 PPR, 10.3 STD | 17-96-0 | 2-7-0, four targets
  • D’Andre Swift (Week 6): 27.3 PPR, 24.3 STD | 14-116-2 | 3-7-0, four targets
  • Adrian Peterson (Week 6): 12.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 15-40-1 | 1-18-0, one target
  • Joshua Kelley (Week 7): 10.3 PPR, 5.3 STD | 12-20-0 | 5-24-0, five targets
  • Justin Jackson (Week 7): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-12-0 | 5-43-0, six targets
  • BYE WEEK (Week 8): Yep, they’re still bad.
  • Duke Johnson (Week 9): 15.3 PPR, 11.3 STD | 16-41-1 | 4-32-0, four targets

Not every guy to face the Jags goes off, but almost everyone has an above-average performance at worst.

The Jags are essentially an auto-play matchup. Here’s a flow chart that might help.

  • Is this player a running back? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player facing the Jaguars? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player a guy who gets snaps? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player relatively healthy at kickoff? If no, maybe play him. If yes, definitely play him.

Follow the flow chart. Play Jones.

Full disclosure: I’m betting on the Packers.

In only one year — ONE! — has quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a losing record against the spread (ATS) at home in the regular season.

That was 2008, his first season as a starter.

Ever since then, Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been no worse than .500 ATS in any season. For his career, Rodgers at home is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS (24.4% ROI). You can bet on this game at DraftKings.



In general, you don’t need much of a reason to back Rodgers in Green Bay.

But if you need a little something extra, here it is: Rodgers is one of the league’s best quarterbacks with additional time to prepare. In his 10 career games with 10 days off (Thursday to Sunday), Rodgers is 6-3-1 ATS (27.1% ROI).

As for the Jaguars, opponents have been profitable against them each year of the post-hype era following their 2017 near-Super Bowl run.

  • 2018 (16 games): 9-5-2 ATS | 22.6% ROI
  • 2019 (16 games): 9-7 ATS | 9.3% ROI
  • 2020 (seven games): 5-3 ATS | 23.1% ROI

In total, opposing teams are 23-15-2 ATS (17.4% ROI) against head coach Doug Marrone’s Jags since 2018.

The Packers have a slate-high 33-point implied Vegas total. Points will abound, and Jones is on the positive side of his splits as a home favorite.

Jones is a top-six RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 running back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with 11 Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating.

Antonio Gibson: Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (Off the Board)

Light a candle, put on your favorite Infant Sorrow album and close your eyes.

Gibson is finally atop one of our Models.

This game is off the board across the industry because both teams are dealing with quarterback issues.

The Football Team has benched Week 1 starter Dwayne Haskins, and last week backup-turned-starter Kyle Allen (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury. Veteran Alex Smith played in relief of Allen last week and figures to draw the start, but a return to the second-year Haskins isn’t out of the question.

As for the Lions, quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion) exited Week 9 early with a head injury. He will need to clear the league’s protocol to play this weekend, and that’s not certain to happen.

Here is what’s certain: The Lions defense is bad. Opposing backfields are No. 1 in the league against the Lions with 30.4 fantasy points per game on 213-1,079-10 rushing and 37-413-5 receiving.

The matchup could not be better.

I’ll admit that Gibson has been inconsistent to start his NFL career.

But what some people might view as inconsistency I prefer to think of as volatility, a.k.a. the stuff of upside.

Gibson is swaggy with upside.

The very night Gibson was drafted, I tweeted this.

As a senior in 2019, Gibson had pornographic production as a hybrid slot receiver/change-of-pace back.

  • Receiving: 38-735-8, 56 targets
  • Rushing: 33-369-4
  • Kick Returning: 23-645-1

That’s 1,104 yards from scrimmage and 13 all-purpose touchdowns — on highly limited usage — in 14 games.

Even though he played 87% of his snaps in the slot in 2019, as a runner Gibson led the nation with 11.2 yards per attempt and 8.0 yards after contact per attempt (per Sports Info Solutions).

As a receiver, Gibson had 17 broken tackles on 38 receptions and led all draft-eligible prospects with 11.7 yards after the catch per reception (per PFF).

Overall, he led the college ranks with 38 broken tackles per 100 touches (per SIS).

With his size (six feet, 228 pounds) and athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash), Gibson has a 99th-percentile 122.8 Speed Score (per Player Profiler). Total playmaker.

He has had 20 touches in a game only once, and last week he had fewer than 10 touches for the first time all year. He certainly has downside.

But with just 12-18 opportunities in most weeks, Gibson is still on pace for over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage.

It’s annoying that Gibson is splitting work with journeyman J.D. McKissic, who had a ridiculous 14 targets last week and is on pace for 94 targets this year. McKissic certainly caps Gibson’s ceiling.

But with his talent and matchup, Gibson could still be a fantasy RB1 this week even with McKissic stealing touches. In dynasty leagues, the time to trade for Gibson is now.

A borderline RB1/2 in season-long leagues, Gibson is the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Darrell Henderson: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (55 O/U)

Henderson (thigh) exited Week 8 early with an injury, but HC Sean McVay has said that he should be able to play coming out of the Week 9 bye.

Although Henderson is part of a three-man committee, his playmaking ability is undeniable.

Henderson did next to nothing in the season opener, playing just five snaps and totaling only six yards, but in Weeks 2-7 (before his injury) he established himself as the backfield leader with 84-405-3 rushing and 9-109-1 receiving in six games, finishing as a fantasy RB1 three times in that stretch.

There’s no doubt that Henderson is a boom-or-bust producer. His volatility is just part of the package. If you want a baby, you better be prepared to change some diapers.

But, you know, eventually babies grow into functional people and stop pooping themselves. You get the general idea.

Henderson’s matchup is tough. The Seahawks are No. 1 with a 79.8 PFF run-defense grade.

But the Rams are also No. 4 with a 76.2 PFF run-blocking grade, so it’s not as if they’re not up for this matchup, and over their past four games the Seahawks have allowed six backs to have 10-plus PPR points, which isn’t an incredibly high threshold — but it also ain’t nuthin’.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 5): 19.9 PPR, 14.9 STD | 17-65-1 | 5-24-0, five targets
  • Alexander Mattison (Week 5): 16.6 PPR, 13.6 STD | 20-112-0 | 3-24-0, three targets
  • Chase Edmonds (Week 7): 21.5 PPR, 14.5 STD | 5-58-0 | 7-87-0, seven targets
  • Jerick McKinnon (Week 8): 13.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 3-minus 1-1 | 4-40-0, four targets
  • JaMycal Hasty (Week 8): 10.1 PPR, 9.1 STD | 12-29-1 | 1-2-0, one target
  • Zack Moss (Week 9): 12.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 9-18-1 | 2-30-0, two targets

Set aside Cook and Mattison in the run-heavy Vikings offense. If Edmonds, McKinnon, Hasty and Moss — all committee backs — can put up fantasy points against the Seahawks, then Henderson certainly can as well.

For what it’s worth, I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

Wilson is in a good spot.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot — but that doesn’t mean I’m fading Henderson.

In the two Rams losses in Weeks 2-7, Henderson still averaged 104 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Henderson is a mid-range RB2 with upside in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Koerner Models, where he has a position-high 97% Bargain Rating.

Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): After his injury-impacted Week 1, Conner is 113-511-5 rushing and 18-115-0 receiving on 21 targets over the past seven games. The Cowboys are No. 28 with a 48.8 PFF rush-defense grade. Over the past two-plus years, Conner has averaged 18.9 DraftKings and 16.2 FanDuel points across 21 games as a favorite.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) at Green Bay Packers (50 O/U): Even on a 1-7 team ranking No. 26 with 22.4 points per game, Robinson has been a fantasy RB1 in 62% of his games.

 

Robinson is No. 6 with a 36% market share of his team’s opportunities, and opposing backfields are No. 2 in the league against the Packers with 27.4 fantasy points per game with 175-796-11 rushing and 51-473-4 receiving.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (-5) vs. Denver Broncos (51 O/U): A sizable home favorite, Jacobs has a good chance to end up on the positive side of his notable win/loss splits.

Despite his script-dependent profile, Jacobs has 2,029 yards from scrimmage in 21 games since entering the league last year, and he’s No. 4 with a 38% opportunity share.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers (50.5 O/U): Opposing backfields are No. 5 against the Panthers with 21.6 fantasy points per game on 192-877-9 rushing and 63-428-2 receiving. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Fournette leads the Bucs backfield with a 64% snap rate, 50% rush share and 16% target share.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Starter Joe Mixon (foot) has been out since Week 7, and although he returned to limited practice on Wednesday he’s not certain to play this week. In his six games without Mixon since 2017, Bernard has balled out.

The Steelers are No. 4 with a -32.1% rush-defense DVOA, but Bernard will still be in play if Mixon misses Week 10.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (+5) at Las Vegas Raiders (51 O/U): Since returning from injury in Week 8, teammate Phillip Lindsay has almost matched Gordon in opportunity share (18% vs. 17%), significantly siphoning volume away from the ostensible lead back. But this week there might be enough work to go around for both backs, as the Raiders rank No. 32 with a 5.8% rush-defense DVOA.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Football Team (Off the Board): With the exception of his six-snap Week 3, Swift has flashed in limited action.

Even with his limited usage, Swift has eight-plus opportunities in each of his non-Week 3 games, and since the Week 5 bye he has averaged 10.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game.

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (50 O/U): Starter David Johnson (concussion) exited Week 9 early, and in his absence Duke Johnson had a career-high 20 touches. Duke Johnson has an efficient 6.2 yards per touch for his career, and if David Johnson misses Week 10 he could be a low-end RB1 in a Revenge Game against the Browns.

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Teams at Detroit Lions (Off the Board): Even though he’s a supplementary player, McKissic leads the Footballers backfield with a 50% snap rate and is No. 4 in the league among all backs with 47 targets. The Lions are No. 30 with a 26.5% pass-defense DVOA against running backs, and this is a Revenge Game for McKissic against his former team.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): After returning to action in Week 9, starter Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is expected to miss Week 10. In his six full games this year without McCaffrey, Davis has 17.7 PPR and 12.7 STD point per game on 83-349-2 rushing and 30-170-2 receiving.

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 O/U): See Jones, Aaron. Check out the length of that list.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Antonio Gibson
Photo credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

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The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models

There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday evening).

  • Alvin Kamara: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (STD)
  • Chase Edmonds: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 3 (Half PPR) | No. 3 (STD)
  • Aaron Jones: No. 4 (PPR) | No. 4 (Half PPR) | No. 4 (STD)
  • Antonio Gibson: No. 13 (PPR) | No. 12 (Half PPR) | No. 13 (STD)
  • Darrell Henderson: No. 19 (PPR) | No. 18 (Half PPR) | No. 17 (STD)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.

Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.

Alvin Kamara: New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (50 Over/Under)

After putting up “just” 1,330 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage last year, Kamara now has 1,036 and eight in eight games.

  • Week 1 (vs. TB): 23.7 PPR, 18.7 STD | 12-16-1 | 5-51-1, eight targets
  • Week 2 (at LV): 38.4 PPR, 29.4 STD | 13-79-2 | 9-95-0, nine targets
  • Week 3 (vs. GB): 44.7 PPR, 31.7 STD | 6-58-0 | 13-139-2, 14 targets
  • Week 4 (at DET): 20.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 19-83-1 | 3-36-0, four targets
  • Week 5 (vs. LAC): 19.9 PPR, 11.9 STD | 11-45-0 | 8-74-0, 10 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. CAR): 22.8 PPR, 14.8 STD | 14-83-0 | 8-65-0, eight targets
  • Week 8 (at CHI): 25.3 PPR, 16.3 STD | 12-67-0 | 9-96-0, 13 targets
  • Week 9 (at TB): 15.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 9-40-1 | 5-9-0, six targets

With the exception of last week, when the Saints trounced the Buccaneers and could afford to give him much of the game off in a 38-3 victory, Kamara has consistently dominated.

It helps that Kamara is easily No. 1 at the position with 72 targets overall and 73.8 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it in the RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary.

What’s great about Kamara isn’t just his workload, which is elite. This year he’s No. 2 behind only the small-sampled Christian McCaffrey with 20.9 expected fantasy points per game.

What’s really great about Kamara is that he has regained his early-career efficiency. In 2017-18, Kamara averaged 6.6 yards per touch, but last year — hampered by knee, ankle and back injuries — he dropped to an average of 5.3. By his own estimation, he played at 75% in 2019.

In 2020, he has jumped back up to 6.6 yards per touch. Kamara indeed is back to 100%, and that’s reflected in the extent to which he has outperformed: Kamara is No. 3 at the position with 5.6 fantasy points over expectation per game.

In every game but one this year, Kamara has been a fantasy RB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

Kamara is not without his concerns this week.

For the most of the season, Kamara has been the team’s top receiver in the absence of No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas, who just returned from ankle and hamstring injuries last week. In Kamara’s six games without Thomas (Weeks 2-8), he had an obscene 26% market share of target.

In his two games with Thomas this year, Kamara has seen significantly fewer targets and as a result enjoyed far less receiving and fantasy production (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

With Thomas on the field, Kamara is destined for fewer pass-game opportunities. That’s a fact.

But I’m not overly concerned with these splits. In his first three years (2017-19), Kamara played all his regular-season games with Thomas, and he was the No. 2 back across that time with his 20% target share, trailing only McCaffrey (23%). Even with Thomas, Kamara should still have elite receiving usage.

Another potential concern is the matchup. On paper, it doesn’t look good for Kamara. The 49ers are No. 6 with a -23.0% rush-defense DVOA and also No. 13 with a -6.2% pass-defense DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders).

But I’m not too worried. The 49ers might be without seven key players on that side of the ball.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe, IR)

And with his high-volume role and three-down skill set, Kamara is a nearly matchup-proof player anyway.

And it helps that he’s on the positive side of his favorite/underdog splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).

  • Favorite (44 games): 18.9 FanDuel points | 65.9% Consistency Rating
  • Underdog (14 games): 16.2 FanDuel points | 57.1% Consistency Rating

One final concern is the game total, which opened at 53.5 points but has been driven down to 50 at most sportsbooks and even 49.5 at a couple places despite 65% of the money betting on the over (as of Wednesday morning, per our Action Network Odds page).

That the total has dropped so much even with most of the money backing the over is a clear sign that at least some sharp money is on the under. There might be fewer points than expected in this game.

But let’s be real: We’re talking about a game at the Mercedes Superdome, the Coors Field of Fantasy Football. With quarterback Drew Brees, the over in Saints home games is 69-49-2, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel. In New Orleans, points tend to flow like bacchanal wine.

Kamara leads all running backs in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections. In the immortal words of George Costanza, “Drink up.”

Kamara is a top-tier RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.

Chase Edmonds: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (56.5 O/U)

Writer’s Note (11/11): I wrote the following analysis on Edmonds … and then news broke that starter Kenyan Drake (ankle) has returned to practice. If he plays this weekend, much of wrote I just wrote will be irrelevant. Life. It’s something.

Ah, how long ago it seems, when Edmonds looked like an automatic smash play as a home favorite against a poor AFC East run defense.

To be young: Week 9 … those were the days.

But it’s now Week 10. We’re older. Wiser. And poorer — because Edmonds last week had just 88 yards.

Only 88 yards … on 28 touches.

Pain. Pleasure. Twinsies.

Let’s not get hung up on what Edmonds didn’t do last week. Let’s focus on the fact that he led all running backs with his 96% snap rate and 44% opportunity share.

He’s still delicious.

Before the season started, Edmonds was one of the top players in Koerner’s backup running back rankings, and this week he will once again lead the backfield in the absence of starter Kenyan Drake (ankle), who exited Week 7 early with an injury and is yet to return to practice.

I expect Edmonds to get 20-plus touches for the second straight week, because after him the Cardinals have nothing but a coterie of backfield nonentities.

The Cardinals are highly incentivized not to let any back other than Edmonds touch the ball.

Despite playing behind Drake this year, Edmonds hasn’t trailed him by much in expected points per game, and he has markedly outperformed Drake in fantasy points over expectation both rushing and receiving (ruFPOE & reFPOE).

  • Kenyan Drake: 13.1 expected points | -0.2 ruFPOE | -0.8 reFPOE
  • Chase Edmonds: 10.1 expected points | +0.2 ruFPOE | +1.6 reFPOE

Even as a change-of-pace back for most of the year, Edmonds has been at least a fantasy RB2 in over half his games this season.

Edmonds has a strong matchup against the Bills, who are No. 32 with a pathetic 32.5 run-defense grade (per Pro Football Focus).

In nine games, the Bills have allowed a league-high nine fantasy RB1/2 performances.

That’ll do.

Even with his disappointing Week 9, Edmonds has done well in his two games as a lead back.

I’m sure I’m not the only one among us who right now has the opening lines of John Milton’s “Lycidas” coursing through his brain.

Yet once more, O ye laurels, and once more
Ye myrtles brown, with ivy never sere …

Yet once more, Edmonds is a high-end RB1 in season-long leagues. He’s also the No. 1 back in the Raybon Models for DraftKings and FanDuel, where he has position-high marks with his +3.77 and +3.95 Projected Plus/Minus values.

Aaron Jones: Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 O/U)

Even though the Packers drafted early-down grinder A.J. Dillon in Round 2 this offseason, Jones has maintained his role as the lead back. His snap rate is lower, but his share of team opportunities (carries plus targets) is on par with where it was last year when Jones had 1,558 yards and an NFL-high 19 touchdowns from scrimmage.

  • 2019 (16 games): 61% snap rate | 32% opportunity share
  • 2020 (six games): 56% snap rate | 34% opportunity share

For 2020, Jones has 629 yards and seven touchdowns despite missing two games and playing through a calf injury in Week 9. Jones is No. 2 with 0.56 PPR and 0.46 STD points per snap and No. 4 with 19.3 expected fantasy points and 43.7 AirYAC per game. He’s doing it again.

And with 10 days to recover after Thursday Night Football, he should be ready to go and close to 100% healthy for Week 10.

He hasn’t been prolific in his past two games, but even when struggling he has still put up fantasy points, and in every game this season he has 15-plus opportunities.

  • Week 1 (at MIN): 17.6 PPR, 13.6 STD | 16-66-1 | 4-10-0, six targets
  • Week 2 (vs. DET): 45.6 PPR, 41.6 STD | 18-168-2 | 4-68-1, eight targets
  • Week 3 (at NO): 16.6 PPR, 14.6 STD | 16-69-1 | 2-17-0, four targets
  • Week 4 (vs. ATL): 22.1 PPR, 17.1 STD | 15-71-0 | 5-40-1, five targets
  • Week 6 (at TB): 13.1 PPR, 10.1 STD | 10-15-1 | 3-26-0, five targets
  • Week 9 (at SF): 12.9 PPR, 7.9 STD | 15-58-0 | 5-21-0, five targets

What Jones really has going for him this week is his matchup against the Jaguars, who have been abused by almost every running back to face them over the past calendar year.

Seriously, the list is incredibly long.

  • Carlos Hyde (Week 9): 14.0 PPR, 14.0 STD | 19-160-0
  • Duke Johnson (Week 9): 19.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 7-13-1 | 5-68-0, five targets
  • BYE WEEK (Week 10): The Jags somehow made their run defense worse during the bye.
  • Marlon Mack (Week 11): 16.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 14-109-1
  • Jonathan Williams (Week 11): 15.7 PPR, 14.7 STD | 13-116-0 | 1-31-0, one target
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 11): 12.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 3-11-1 | 3-24-0, four targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 12): 28.5 PPR, 27.5 STD | 19-159-2 | 1-16-0, one target
  • Peyton Barber (Week 13): 18.4 PPR, 18.4 STD | 17-44-2
  • Austin Ekeler (Week 14): 31.3 PPR, 27.3 STD | 8-101-0 | 4-112-1, five targets
  • Melvin Gordon III (Week 14): 19.4 PPR, 14.4 STD | 12-55-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
  • Josh Jacobs (Week 15): 12.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 24-89-0 | 2-20-0, three targets
  • Devonta Freeman (Week 16): 33.7 PPR, 24.7 STD | 13-53-1 | 9-74-1, 10 targets
  • Brian Hill & Qadree Ollison (Week 16): 12.9 PPR, 12.9 STD | 8-69-1
  • Marlon Mack (Week 17): 19.7 PPR, 19.7 STD | 15-77-2 | 0-0-0, one target
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 17): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 7-34-0 | 3-22-0, five targets
  • Nyheim Hines (Week 1): 27.3 PPR, 19.3 STD | 7-28-1 | 8-45-1, eight targets
  • Jonathan Taylor (Week 1): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0 six targets
  • Marlon Mack (Week 1, injured): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 4-26-0 | 3-30-0, three targets
  • Derrick Henry (Week 2): 8.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 25-84-0 | 0-0-0, two targets
  • Myles Gaskin & Jordan Howard (Week 3): 20.6 PPR, 15.6 STD | 25-67-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
  • Joe Mixon (Week 4): 42.1 PPR, 36.1 STD | 25-151-2 | 6-30-1, six targets
  • David Johnson (Week 5): 12.3 PPR, 10.3 STD | 17-96-0 | 2-7-0, four targets
  • D’Andre Swift (Week 6): 27.3 PPR, 24.3 STD | 14-116-2 | 3-7-0, four targets
  • Adrian Peterson (Week 6): 12.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 15-40-1 | 1-18-0, one target
  • Joshua Kelley (Week 7): 10.3 PPR, 5.3 STD | 12-20-0 | 5-24-0, five targets
  • Justin Jackson (Week 7): 10.5 PPR, 5.5 STD | 5-12-0 | 5-43-0, six targets
  • BYE WEEK (Week 8): Yep, they’re still bad.
  • Duke Johnson (Week 9): 15.3 PPR, 11.3 STD | 16-41-1 | 4-32-0, four targets

Not every guy to face the Jags goes off, but almost everyone has an above-average performance at worst.

The Jags are essentially an auto-play matchup. Here’s a flow chart that might help.

  • Is this player a running back? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player facing the Jaguars? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player a guy who gets snaps? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
  • Is the player relatively healthy at kickoff? If no, maybe play him. If yes, definitely play him.

Follow the flow chart. Play Jones.

Full disclosure: I’m betting on the Packers.

In only one year — ONE! — has quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a losing record against the spread (ATS) at home in the regular season.

That was 2008, his first season as a starter.

Ever since then, Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been no worse than .500 ATS in any season. For his career, Rodgers at home is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS (24.4% ROI). You can bet on this game at DraftKings.



In general, you don’t need much of a reason to back Rodgers in Green Bay.

But if you need a little something extra, here it is: Rodgers is one of the league’s best quarterbacks with additional time to prepare. In his 10 career games with 10 days off (Thursday to Sunday), Rodgers is 6-3-1 ATS (27.1% ROI).

As for the Jaguars, opponents have been profitable against them each year of the post-hype era following their 2017 near-Super Bowl run.

  • 2018 (16 games): 9-5-2 ATS | 22.6% ROI
  • 2019 (16 games): 9-7 ATS | 9.3% ROI
  • 2020 (seven games): 5-3 ATS | 23.1% ROI

In total, opposing teams are 23-15-2 ATS (17.4% ROI) against head coach Doug Marrone’s Jags since 2018.

The Packers have a slate-high 33-point implied Vegas total. Points will abound, and Jones is on the positive side of his splits as a home favorite.

Jones is a top-six RB1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 running back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, SportsGeek, Hodge and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with 11 Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating.

Antonio Gibson: Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (Off the Board)

Light a candle, put on your favorite Infant Sorrow album and close your eyes.

Gibson is finally atop one of our Models.

This game is off the board across the industry because both teams are dealing with quarterback issues.

The Football Team has benched Week 1 starter Dwayne Haskins, and last week backup-turned-starter Kyle Allen (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury. Veteran Alex Smith played in relief of Allen last week and figures to draw the start, but a return to the second-year Haskins isn’t out of the question.

As for the Lions, quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion) exited Week 9 early with a head injury. He will need to clear the league’s protocol to play this weekend, and that’s not certain to happen.

Here is what’s certain: The Lions defense is bad. Opposing backfields are No. 1 in the league against the Lions with 30.4 fantasy points per game on 213-1,079-10 rushing and 37-413-5 receiving.

The matchup could not be better.

I’ll admit that Gibson has been inconsistent to start his NFL career.

But what some people might view as inconsistency I prefer to think of as volatility, a.k.a. the stuff of upside.

Gibson is swaggy with upside.

The very night Gibson was drafted, I tweeted this.

As a senior in 2019, Gibson had pornographic production as a hybrid slot receiver/change-of-pace back.

  • Receiving: 38-735-8, 56 targets
  • Rushing: 33-369-4
  • Kick Returning: 23-645-1

That’s 1,104 yards from scrimmage and 13 all-purpose touchdowns — on highly limited usage — in 14 games.

Even though he played 87% of his snaps in the slot in 2019, as a runner Gibson led the nation with 11.2 yards per attempt and 8.0 yards after contact per attempt (per Sports Info Solutions).

As a receiver, Gibson had 17 broken tackles on 38 receptions and led all draft-eligible prospects with 11.7 yards after the catch per reception (per PFF).

Overall, he led the college ranks with 38 broken tackles per 100 touches (per SIS).

With his size (six feet, 228 pounds) and athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash), Gibson has a 99th-percentile 122.8 Speed Score (per Player Profiler). Total playmaker.

He has had 20 touches in a game only once, and last week he had fewer than 10 touches for the first time all year. He certainly has downside.

But with just 12-18 opportunities in most weeks, Gibson is still on pace for over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage.

It’s annoying that Gibson is splitting work with journeyman J.D. McKissic, who had a ridiculous 14 targets last week and is on pace for 94 targets this year. McKissic certainly caps Gibson’s ceiling.

But with his talent and matchup, Gibson could still be a fantasy RB1 this week even with McKissic stealing touches. In dynasty leagues, the time to trade for Gibson is now.

A borderline RB1/2 in season-long leagues, Gibson is the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek and Freedman Models for FanDuel.

Darrell Henderson: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (55 O/U)

Henderson (thigh) exited Week 8 early with an injury, but HC Sean McVay has said that he should be able to play coming out of the Week 9 bye.

Although Henderson is part of a three-man committee, his playmaking ability is undeniable.

Henderson did next to nothing in the season opener, playing just five snaps and totaling only six yards, but in Weeks 2-7 (before his injury) he established himself as the backfield leader with 84-405-3 rushing and 9-109-1 receiving in six games, finishing as a fantasy RB1 three times in that stretch.

There’s no doubt that Henderson is a boom-or-bust producer. His volatility is just part of the package. If you want a baby, you better be prepared to change some diapers.

But, you know, eventually babies grow into functional people and stop pooping themselves. You get the general idea.

Henderson’s matchup is tough. The Seahawks are No. 1 with a 79.8 PFF run-defense grade.

But the Rams are also No. 4 with a 76.2 PFF run-blocking grade, so it’s not as if they’re not up for this matchup, and over their past four games the Seahawks have allowed six backs to have 10-plus PPR points, which isn’t an incredibly high threshold — but it also ain’t nuthin’.

  • Dalvin Cook (Week 5): 19.9 PPR, 14.9 STD | 17-65-1 | 5-24-0, five targets
  • Alexander Mattison (Week 5): 16.6 PPR, 13.6 STD | 20-112-0 | 3-24-0, three targets
  • Chase Edmonds (Week 7): 21.5 PPR, 14.5 STD | 5-58-0 | 7-87-0, seven targets
  • Jerick McKinnon (Week 8): 13.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 3-minus 1-1 | 4-40-0, four targets
  • JaMycal Hasty (Week 8): 10.1 PPR, 9.1 STD | 12-29-1 | 1-2-0, one target
  • Zack Moss (Week 9): 12.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 9-18-1 | 2-30-0, two targets

Set aside Cook and Mattison in the run-heavy Vikings offense. If Edmonds, McKinnon, Hasty and Moss — all committee backs — can put up fantasy points against the Seahawks, then Henderson certainly can as well.

For what it’s worth, I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

Wilson is in a good spot.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at William Hill.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot — but that doesn’t mean I’m fading Henderson.

In the two Rams losses in Weeks 2-7, Henderson still averaged 104 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Henderson is a mid-range RB2 with upside in season-long leagues and the No. 1 back in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Koerner Models, where he has a position-high 97% Bargain Rating.

Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): After his injury-impacted Week 1, Conner is 113-511-5 rushing and 18-115-0 receiving on 21 targets over the past seven games. The Cowboys are No. 28 with a 48.8 PFF rush-defense grade. Over the past two-plus years, Conner has averaged 18.9 DraftKings and 16.2 FanDuel points across 21 games as a favorite.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) at Green Bay Packers (50 O/U): Even on a 1-7 team ranking No. 26 with 22.4 points per game, Robinson has been a fantasy RB1 in 62% of his games.

 

Robinson is No. 6 with a 36% market share of his team’s opportunities, and opposing backfields are No. 2 in the league against the Packers with 27.4 fantasy points per game with 175-796-11 rushing and 51-473-4 receiving.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (-5) vs. Denver Broncos (51 O/U): A sizable home favorite, Jacobs has a good chance to end up on the positive side of his notable win/loss splits.

Despite his script-dependent profile, Jacobs has 2,029 yards from scrimmage in 21 games since entering the league last year, and he’s No. 4 with a 38% opportunity share.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers (50.5 O/U): Opposing backfields are No. 5 against the Panthers with 21.6 fantasy points per game on 192-877-9 rushing and 63-428-2 receiving. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Fournette leads the Bucs backfield with a 64% snap rate, 50% rush share and 16% target share.

Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Starter Joe Mixon (foot) has been out since Week 7, and although he returned to limited practice on Wednesday he’s not certain to play this week. In his six games without Mixon since 2017, Bernard has balled out.

The Steelers are No. 4 with a -32.1% rush-defense DVOA, but Bernard will still be in play if Mixon misses Week 10.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (+5) at Las Vegas Raiders (51 O/U): Since returning from injury in Week 8, teammate Phillip Lindsay has almost matched Gordon in opportunity share (18% vs. 17%), significantly siphoning volume away from the ostensible lead back. But this week there might be enough work to go around for both backs, as the Raiders rank No. 32 with a 5.8% rush-defense DVOA.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Football Team (Off the Board): With the exception of his six-snap Week 3, Swift has flashed in limited action.

Even with his limited usage, Swift has eight-plus opportunities in each of his non-Week 3 games, and since the Week 5 bye he has averaged 10.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game.

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (50 O/U): Starter David Johnson (concussion) exited Week 9 early, and in his absence Duke Johnson had a career-high 20 touches. Duke Johnson has an efficient 6.2 yards per touch for his career, and if David Johnson misses Week 10 he could be a low-end RB1 in a Revenge Game against the Browns.

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Teams at Detroit Lions (Off the Board): Even though he’s a supplementary player, McKissic leads the Footballers backfield with a 50% snap rate and is No. 4 in the league among all backs with 47 targets. The Lions are No. 30 with a 26.5% pass-defense DVOA against running backs, and this is a Revenge Game for McKissic against his former team.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): After returning to action in Week 9, starter Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is expected to miss Week 10. In his six full games this year without McCaffrey, Davis has 17.7 PPR and 12.7 STD point per game on 83-349-2 rushing and 30-170-2 receiving.

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 O/U): See Jones, Aaron. Check out the length of that list.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Antonio Gibson
Photo credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

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About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.