In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two wide receivers near the top of the Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tyreek Hill
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tyreek Hill ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (49.5 total)
Tournaments are all about finding players with high ceilings. So, it’s no surprise that Tyreek Hill is the top receiver in our Tournament Model. I wrote last week about how Hill has been ravaging opposing defenses but hadn’t been finding the end zone with much consistency.
He had three separate games on the year with 10+ catches and 160+ yards without finding the end zone. If he started to find the end zone in some of those games, it would lead to an incredible game.
Hill didn’t quite meet those thresholds, as it is a high bar to reach. However, he came close. Hill caught seven balls for 143 yards and a touchdown en route to 30.3 DraftKings points. Hill has five games on the year with 140 or more receiving yards. Justin Jefferson has three of them, as he is the only other receiver with more than two.
Hill is second among all receivers in target share while leading the league in targets per route run. Cleveland has a solid pass rush, which could hurt Tua’s ability to get Hill the ball. However, if Tua stays upright, we should be in for another solid game from Hill. Cleveland is allowing a lofty 14.0 yards per catch, which is the fourth most in the league.
He has the highest ceiling projection on the week by almost three full points.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+3) at Chicago Bears (48.5 total)
Prior to his injury and dating back to last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown had eight straight games with eight or more catches and 70+ yards or a touchdown. St. Brown hasn’t reached eight catches since September and is averaging four catches per game over his past four games.
The good news is that St. Brown’s target numbers are returning to normal. He saw 10 two weeks ago against Miami and nine last week against the Packers. He’s been targeted on 32.1% of his routes, which is the second-highest rate in the league. The issue with St. Brown is that he’s reliant on volume. He has an average depth of target of 6.3 yards and has only been targeted on one ball more than 20 yards downfield.
St. Brown’s skillset is perfect for this matchup with the Bears. 46.7% of the receptions by receivers against the Bears have come in the slot, where St. Brown does the majority of his work. Chicago ranks in the bottom five in catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate to opposing slot receivers.
Injuries have plagued some of St. Brown’s season, but in his five games where he was fully healthy, he’s seen nine or more targets.
St. Brown is one of the top receivers in Points/Salary while leading our Cash Game Model, as well as Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stefon Diggs ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (43 total)
Stefon Diggs’ fantasy outlook will obviously be improved if Josh Allen is able to suit up. However, even if he misses, Diggs still is a solid target in DFS. He and Case Keenum will embark on the double-revenge game, as they’ll try to connect as they once did in Minnesota years ago for the Minneapolis Miracle. If Allen is ruled out, Diggs’ ownership will likely decrease, which makes him an interesting target.
Keenum is more than capable as a backup, and we don’t expect Buffalo to massively change their offense. Minnesota likes to play a lot of zone coverage, which Diggs has destroyed this year. He’s averaging 3.14 yards per route run against zone, which is second in the league. Minnesota is allowing the fifth-highest catch rate to opposing receivers while running the second-most zone coverage in the league.
Amari Cooper ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+3.5) Miami Dolphins (49.5 total)
It’s starting to look like we’ll have a shootout on our hands in Miami, and Amari Cooper’s outlook is definitely helping that case. Cooper has always feasted on man coverage as opposed to zone. His target rate per route run is at 18% on the year against zone and all the way up to 35% when in man coverage. Miami plays the second-most man coverage in the league at 41%. It’s as if all of the stars are aligning.
We’ve already touched on Hill and how he should be able to produce. Cooper is a nice bring-back piece on Miami stacks or just a nice mini-correlation partner with Hill.
Christian Kirk ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (51 total)
Christian Kirk returned to form last week against the Raiders, catching eight of nine targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. He saw 31% of team targets, and he sits at 23.7% on the year. He has six games of seven or more targets and has been a constant red-zone threat for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars may end up deploying a more pass-happy game script this week, as they’re currently 9.5-point underdogs in Kansas City. Slot receivers have touched up Kansas City, where Kirk runs 66% of his routes. They allow the seventh-most receptions to opposing slot receivers, and a 5% touchdown rate.
This game will likely be popular in DFS this weekend and for good reason. Kirk is a nice part of game stacks.
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