Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Josh Downs ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Everything has come up Downs over the past few weeks. It started when the team made the switch at quarterback from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco. With Flacco under center, Downs has produced like a high-end wide receiver this season. He commanded a 28% target share through Flacco’s first three starts, finishing with at least 15.9 DraftKings points in all three games.
His role was basically as expected with Flacco under center in Week 9. Downs wasn’t on the field as much as anticipated – he had just a 67% route participation – but he was the clear focus of the passing attack when he was. He was targeted on 40% of his routes run, finishing with a 32% target share overall.
Now, Downs has even less competition for targets. Michael Pittman Jr. will miss this week’s contest with a back injury, and Pittman had an 83% route participation and 19% target share last week. With Pittman out of the picture, Downs should be on the field for virtually every passing snap, and he could see a boost in targets, too.
Sunday’s game between the Bills and Colts also stands out as one of the best of the week for fantasy purposes. It has a 46.5-point total, which is tied for the second-highest mark on the main slate. Add it all up, and Downs is arguably the best overall play at the position in Week 10.
Ladd McConkey ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Chargers started the year with one of the most boring offenses in football. They had a negative Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) in each of their first four games, and Justin Herbert averaged just 144.5 passing yards per game. He added just five touchdown passes, so this was a fry cry from the guy who averaged at least 278.8 passing yards in each of his first three years.
Fortunately, Jim Harbaugh has unleashed Herbert over the past four weeks. They’ve posted a +3.0% DBOE over that time frame, and Herbert has increased his production to 286.8 passing yards per game. Overall, they’ve been a much friendlier offense for fantasy purposes.
McConkey has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s operated as the team’s top receiver all season, and he’s now getting enough volume for that to matter. He erupted for six catches, 111 yards, and two touchdowns two weeks ago, and he’s had at least seven targets in three of his past four games.
McConkey should be productive again this week vs. the Titans. Their defense hasn’t been poor this season, but they’ve been worse against the pass than the run. It’s a spot where the Chargers could stay aggressive through the air, and if that happens, McConkey is too cheap as their top pass-catcher.
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Turns out, the old dog might still have a few tricks up his sleeve. Hopkins was basically invisible to start the year with the Titans, but playing with Patrick Mahomes certainly changes things.
He was more fully integrated into the Chiefs’ offense in Week 9, racking up a 69% route participation. He was targeted on 26% of his routes run, good for a 21% target share overall. Most importantly, Hopkins had two of the team’s three end zone targets, and he secured two touchdowns.
It’s possible that Hopkins could take another step forward in Week 10 in terms of route participation. That said, he’s already proven he can be a viable contributor, even if he’s not on the field for every snap. Being the top receiver for the best quarterback in football is a good gig if you can get it, and it makes Hopkins underpriced at his current salary across the industry.
Noah Brown ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a cheap WR3 to round out your DraftKings cash game lineup, Brown stands out as the best of the bunch. Brown will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Steelers, who are eighth in the league in pass defense EPA. However, the Commanders have been the best offense in football in terms of EPA, so they’re capable of overcoming tough matchups. They racked up a season-best 481 yards against the Bears two weeks ago, who have been even better than the Steelers on the defensive side.
Brown’s role with the team is also growing. He’s operated as their clear No. 2 receiver the past two weeks, posting a route participation of at least 76% in both contests. He also racked up a 32% target share against the Giants in Week 9, which was his best mark of the season.
Brown has ultimately posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on DraftKings, yet his salary remains very reasonable. He may not have a ton of upside, but he’s a decent bet to return value.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Davante Adams ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
If Week 9 is any indication, the Jets are going to have one of the most condensed passing attacks in football moving forward. Adams and Garrett Wilson combined for a ridiculous 70% of the team’s targets last week, with Adams edging out his teammate 37% to 33%. Wilson was the more productive player – he caught nine passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns – but Adams still managed to finish with 22.1 DraftKings points of his own.
Both players look appealing this week vs. the Cardinals, but Adams stands out as the superior target. Not only did he have a higher target share last week, but he checks in at a slight discount compared to his younger teammate. As a result, he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at the fourth-highest frequency at the position.
The Cardinals have struggled against the pass this season, ranking 28th in pass defense EPA, so it’s a great spot for Adams (and Wilson) to keep things rolling.
Khalil Shakir ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Regardless of who else has been in the lineup for the Bills this season, Shakir has carved out a healthy role in their passing attack. He’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run for the year, and he’s been at 28% or higher in back-to-back games.
There’s a chance that Shakir is even busier than usual this week. The team has already ruled out Keon Coleman, while Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel are both listed as questionable. Coleman has a healthy 15% target share for the year, so even if Cooper and Samuel can suit up, there are still more targets up for grabs than usual.
The Bills also stand out as a team to target. Their 25.25-point implied team total is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate, and the Colts have been a favorable matchup all season. They’ve allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, so someone in the Bills’ passing attack should find some success.
Deebo Samuel ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
No team is expected to do more scoring on Sunday than the 49ers. They’ll get back Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings, getting them as close to full strength as they’ve been all season. The team will still have to overcome the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, but they still have arguably more offensive talent than any team in football.
When this team was at full strength last season, they were an absolute death machine for opposing defenses. They were a top-three unit in both points and yards per game, and they were No. 1 in EPA per play. In other words, opposing defenses should be terrified now that McCaffrey is back in the fold.
They’re in an elite spot to make a statement this week vs. the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has been very exploitable defensively, ranking just 25th in EPA. They drop to 26th against the pass, so it’s a great spot for Brock Purdy and his pass-catchers specifically.
Samuel returned to the lineup in Week 8 after being limited by an illness in Week 7, and he posted a 29% target share vs. the Cowboys. He might not be as busy with more competition for touches, but he’s still been an elite fantasy producer since Purdy took over at QB. No receiver is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations more frequently, making him a logical choice for tournaments.
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CeeDee Lamb ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Almost no one is going to play Lamb this week with Dak Prescott out of the lineup. Cooper Rush will take over at quarterback, and what we’ve seen from Rush in the past isn’t super impressive. He started five games in place of Prescott when he was out with an injury two years ago, and he averaged 191.2 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game.
Still, Lamb is one of the best talents at the position, and he should continue to earn targets at an elite rate. He’s projected for less than four percent ownership on DraftKings, but he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a greater than seven percent clip. That’s the biggest discrepancy at the position.
George Pickens ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
I’m not sure why Pickens isn’t expected to be more popular this week, especially at just $7,000 on FanDuel. Maybe it has to do with the team trading for Mike Williams, but it seems unlikely he’ll make a big impact in his first week with the team. Pickens has played well in two games with Russell Wilson at QB, totaling 185 yards and a touchdown while just narrowly missing a second.
The matchup vs. the Commanders is also solid. Washington’s defense has improved as the year has progressed, but they’re still just 20th in pass defense EPA. Overall, Pickens has much more ceiling than his ownership projection suggests.
D.J. Moore ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
The Bears’ offensive line has been a disaster recently. They allowed 16 different players to generate a quarterback pressure last week despite the Cardinals not having a great pass rush. As a result, Caleb Williams has struggled to move the ball through the air, and their pass catchers have provided minimal fantasy value.
Maybe their offensive line woes continue vs. the Patriots, but if they can give Williams a bit more time, he should be able to pick this secondary apart. They’re 30th in pass defense EPA, so it’s an exploitable matchup on paper.
When Williams has had time to throw, Moore has been his favorite receiver. He has a 25% target share and 28% air yards share for the season, and Moore had 30.5 DraftKings points in the team’s best offensive performance of the year. It gives him nice upside for his price tag.
Quentin Johnston ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
While McConkey has been the “move the chains” guy for the Chargers, Johnston has been the guy generating the big plays. He’s recovered from a disastrous rookie season, leading the team with a 30% air yards share and four receiving touchdowns.
He’s cheap and projected for minimal ownership this week, and he can be paired very easily with Herbert and possibly even McConkey. Given the matchup vs. the Titans, they’re one of my favorite double stacks of the week.
