Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.
One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.
If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.
Here are six players who are popping as values in our NFL Models for Week 10.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 on DraftKings) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Jackson is the most expensive quarterback on DraftKings, but he remains the best value play. He currently leads all QBs with a +4.0 projected Plus/Minus, thanks in part to his ability to produce on the ground. He’s averaging a ridiculous 79.6 rushing yards per game and has scored five rushing TDs, which equates to roughly 11.71 fantasy points per game before he throws a single pass.
Jackson is in a fantastic spot this week vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. They rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, and Jackson shredded them for 33.64 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season. The Ravens are currently favored by 10.5 points despite playing on the road, and comparable favorites have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,600 on FanDuel) @ New York Jets
Barkley is in a similar situation at RB as Jackson is at QB. He’s the second-most expensive player at the position on FanDuel, but he stands out as one of the best pure values with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He represents a big decrease in price tag compared to Christian McCaffrey, but he owns comparable projections across the board.
This could be one of the last opportunities to roster Barkley as a favorite, which is a situation he has historically thrived in. He’s only been favored four times in his career, but he’s averaged a +9.49 Plus/Minus and a perfect 100% Consistency Rating on FanDuel.
The Jets defense has been solid in the run game — they currently rank second rush defense DVOA — but opposing RBs have still found success against them from a fantasy perspective. Barkley owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on FanDuel, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points on the ground and through the air.
Devin Singletary ($5,000 on DraftKings) @ Cleveland Browns
The Bills have eased Singletary into the offense this season, but they finally unleashed him last week vs. the Redskins. He racked up 95 yards on 20 carries and added in three catches and 45 receiving yards. He also scored a touchdown and received five carries inside the red zone. His previous season-high was 10 opportunities, so that represented a massive increase in workload.
He’s a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. That’s the fifth-highest mark at the position. It’s simply hard to find that kind of potential volume at such a low price tag.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas ($8,700 on FanDuel) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Thomas is another expensive option who stands out as an elite value, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%. He is one of the most efficient WRs in the league, converting a ridiculous 82.0% of his targets into catches this season. He was at 85.0% last year, so this isn’t exactly an aberration either. Thomas leads the league in catches and receiving yards; the only thing keeping him from a truly special fantasy season is his pedestrian touchdown total.
He owns an elite matchup this week vs. the Atlanta Falcons. They have been abysmal defensively this season, particularly against opposing WRs. Thomas owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80 on FanDuel, and the Saints are currently implied for a whopping 32.5 points at home. Thomas has historically crushed in nine home games with an implied team total of at least 30, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.81 on FanDuel.
A.J. Brown ($4,300 on DraftKings) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans’ WR corps could be an interesting source of value this week. Brown has been particularly effective this season — he’s posted a 63.4% catch rate and averaged 16.5 yards per reception — but his numbers have been kept down by a lack of volume. The Titans rank just 21st in pass rate this season, and they also rank just 25th in pace in neutral game scripts. That’s not a good formula for a fantasy wide receiver.
That said, Tennessee may have no choice but to air it out this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City plays at the fifth-fastest pace in neutral game scripts, and superstar QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past two weeks with a knee injury. The Chiefs are currently favored by six points on the road, so Brown and the rest of their pass catchers may be more involved than usual.
The only real concern with Brown is his likely ownership. He’s currently projected for 26-30% ownership on DraftKings, which could make him a fade candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). That said, he’s definitely a viable value option for cash games.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki ($3,100 on DraftKings) @ Indianapolis Colts
I am irrationally excited to roster Gesicki this week. He dominated the Jets last week, catching six passes on six targets for 95 yards, and he should see a bump in opportunities with Preston Williams out for the rest of the year. Williams led the team with a 21.1% target share, and Gesicki and Devante Parker are the only other players with a target share above 10% this season.
With a SPARQ score in the 97th percentile, Gesicki is a special athlete at the TE position. He most resembles Vernon Davis, who compiled some monster fantasy seasons during his prime with the San Francisco 49ers. Basically, he’s the exact type of player who could take advantage of an increased target share.
He’s extremely cheap at just $3,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. I’ve been hurt by cheap TEs before, but I’m ready to put myself back out there for Gesicki.
Pictured: Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki (88)
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
