The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 10.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes projects for the highest ceiling on the slate, leading a high-powered offense against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The most expensive quarterback on both sites, Mahomes, a dynamic playmaker, looks to have a more ideal matchup, facing a Jaguars defense ranked 22nd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders)
The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 50.5-point total, the highest on the slate. Given Mahomes’ dual-threat nature, the Cheifs remains one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz). The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 325 passing yards per game. In a 20-17 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 9, Mahomes completed 43 passes for 446 yards and one touchdown, also scrambling for one rushing touchdown.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 50-point total, he averages 27.72 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.38 Plus/Minus and a 60.7% consistency rating. Even with the expensive price tag, Mahomes can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability, and should also be a popular option for rosters this week.
Top Value: Justin Fields vs. Detroit Lions – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Justin Fields again projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Chicago Bears in a home matchup against NFC rival Detroit Lions, who, on paper looks to be one of the weaker defenses in the league.
Fields had a breakout performance in Week 9, disregarding Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniels’ feedback to stop running, gashing the defense with 178 yards on the ground and one touchdown. In the shootout, a close 35-32 loss, Fields also threw for 123 yards and three touchdowns, further showcasing his dual-threat ability. As a three-point home favorite in a matchup with a 48.5-point total, expect the dynamic playmaker to exceed expectations, even at a discounted $6,500 salary on DraftKings.
According to PFF, the Lions rank 28th in overall defense, and should last week’s performance be an indicator, Fields immediately becomes a viable salary-relief option.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Saquon Barkley vs. Houston Texans – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
In what looks to be a comeback season, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a weak Houston Texans defense ranked last in rushing DVOA.
This season, Barkley, who is responsible for 62% of the Giants’ rushing share, is averaging 20 carries per game and 4.78 yards per attempt. Aside from the volume on the ground, Barkley also averages 4.4 targets per game and looks to be a key component in the Giants’ offense.
Despite the sky-high salary on both sites, Barkley consistently becomes a candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome, with tremendous touchdown upside, finding the end zone in five of the eight games this season. Consistent volume should make this elite running back a worthy spend-up in Week 10.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Derrick Henry projects for the highest ceiling in a home matchup with the Denver Broncos. The Week 10 matchup looks ideal for the dominant running back, with the Broncos ranking 25th in rushing DVOA. Henry, who commands a 73% market share of carries in the Titans’ offense, is averaging 16.9 attempts per game and 4.84 yards per carry.
In a 20-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, Henry rushed for 155 yards on 17 carries, finding the end zone twice. Further, Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards in five consecutive weeks and is a prime candidate for a 100-yard rushing bonus and touchdown upside, firmly making him a candidate for an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Travis Etienne Jr. at Kansas City Chiefs – $7,100 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Second-year back Travis Etienne Jr. has proven his lead back abilities, again projecting as a top value among running backs this week.
Kansas City ranks 20th in rush DVOA, which should be a more ideal matchup. In a similar matchup on paper, facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense ranked 18th in rush DVOA, Etienne rushed for 109 yards on 28 attempts, finding the end zone twice in a 27-20 win. Since the departure of James Robinson, Etienne has seen a steady workload, with more than 20 attempts in the last two weeks and averaging 5.67 yards per carry.
In a high-total matchup, Etienne is a fantasy-relevant option with a reasonable salary on DraftKings and should be a popular option for rosters, with guaranteed volume in the running game.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Cleveland Browns – $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Tyreek Hill again projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 10 and looks to be in “unfadeable territory.” Cleveland is ranked 18th in pass DVOA — an ideal matchup for the hyper-elite wideout. Hill, who has a 32% target share, is the preferred option for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, averaging 11.1 targets per game and 14.5 yards per reception. Further, look for Hill to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in five of the Dolphins’ nine games this season. In the 35-32 shootout with the Chicago Bears in Week 9, Hill was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 143 yards and one touchdown.
Aside from the volume, Hill is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing four endzone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, only behind Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle.
Top Value: Donovan Peoples-Jones at Miami Dolphins – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
Donovan Peoples-Jones projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver, facing a weak Miami Dolphins defense ranked 31st in pass DVOA.
Peoples-Jones is second in market share in the Browns’ receiving corps, responsible for a 19% target share, and the third-year wideout has been a consistent target for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, seeing at least four targets in six of the Browns’ first eight games this season.
In a Week 8 32-13 win on Monday night, Peoples-Jones was targeted four times, catching four passes for 81 yards. While he has yet to find the endzone, the consistent volume makes him a viable fantasy option in an ideal matchup. Further, given the high 49.5-point total, indications suggest this matchup might shoot out.
With Peoples-Jones priced at $4,300 — a discounted salary on DraftKings, be sure to pair him with Dolphins’ skills players, such as Hill and Waddle.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Jaguars defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA.
In the highest total matchup on the slate, look for Kelce to continue to be the first-look option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, responsible for a team-leading 25% target share. This season, Kelce is averaging 11.6 yards per reception and 9.6 targets per game. To add, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings, being in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in four of the Chiefs’ first eight games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, seeing seven end zone targets this season.
The Chiefs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look.
Top Value: Greg Dulcich at Tennessee Titans – $3,400 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Greg Dulcich projects as a top value at tight end, given his discounted salary on DraftKings. The rookie certainly has the volume coming his way from quarterback Russell Wilson, averaging 15.2 yards per reception and seeing at least five targets in two of his first three games this season. In the 21-17 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8, Dulcich caught four passes for 87 yards.
Dulcich is a prime candidate for salary relief, despite a more difficult matchup against a Titans defense ranked 15th in pass DVOA. Should his volume continue, consider the spend-down at tight end a viable strategy, opening up higher-priced elite players for rosters.
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