The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Indianapolis Colts – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Sunday’s 10-game slate features plenty of strong QB options headlined by Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. In the three projections we use for this post each week, each of those three QBs has one top ceiling projection. In situations like this, it is extremely helpful to create a custom aggregate. Using an evenly-balanced three-way aggregate, Allen has the highest projected median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Bills have won four straight games, and Allen produced between 20 and 25 DraftKings points in each of those games. He had 23.1 DraftKings points last week while leading the Bills to a second win this season over the Dolphins. He did throw a pick in that game but finished with 235 passing yards and three touchdowns. It was his fourth straight game with multiple passing scores.
This week, he could have to do a little more with his legs since he could be short-handed on pass catchers. Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel are all dealing with injuries, but he’ll still have his top option Khalil Shakir. Allen has only run for one touchdown since Week 1, but he could be more aggressive with his legs if receivers are struggling to get open.
The Colts have been a great matchup for opposing QBs this season. They have allowed an average of 248.1 passing yards per game and a total of 14 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in their nine games. In the past two weeks, Sam Darnold and C.J. Stroud each threw for over 275 yards against them, and Allen will look to attack that same matchup this week as a good pay-up QB to build around.
Top Value: Sam Darnold at Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Darnold had that big game against the Colts last week, totaling 22 DraftKings points and 21 FanDuel points while leading the Vikings to a 21-13 win. Darnold has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate on DraftKings and also ranks in the top five on FanDuel, where he’s a little more expensive.
The Vikings’ starting QB has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his eight games this season on FanDuel and has thrown for at least 240 yards in three straight and four of his last five games. He connected on three touchdown passes last week against Indy and has multiple passing scores in six of his eight games this season.
Darnold gets a great matchup this week on the road against the Jags, who have given up the most DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season. Opposing QBs have totaled 19 touchdown passes in nine games this season, with an average of 275.3 passing yards per contest.
If you’re not paying up for a top QB, Darnold is a very attractive lower-cost option that still gives you a high ceiling while saving salary to spend in other spots. You can also partner him with Justin Jefferson as an elite QB-WR stack.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara at Atlanta Falcons – $8,100 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Kamara had a huge week in Week 9 with 30.5 DraftKings points and 27.5 FanDuel points. He posted those monster numbers without the benefit of a touchdown since Taysom Hill vultured the only rushing touchdown. Kamara has the top ceiling projection of all running backs in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and FanDuel this week, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
With Derek Carr back under center last week and Chris Olave (concussion) out of the game early, Kamara was targeted a team-high nine times and led the way with six catches and 60 receiving yards. He also rushed for 155 yards on 29 carries.
The veteran has been a reliable workhorse this season, playing through multiple injuries and averaging over 21 touches per game. He posted at least 22 DraftKings points in four of his six games with Carr at QB and should be positioned for another heavy workload and a big game against the Falcons.
The Saints made a coaching change this week, but Klint Kubiak will still be running the offense and Kamara will still be the focus of the attack. He had 24.9 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Falcons this season, totaling 119 scrimmage yards in their Week 4 matchup. Opposing RBs have scored receiving touchdowns in each of the last three weeks against Atlanta and have averaged 6.0 receptions per game this season.
With Kendre Miller (hamstring) on IR and Jamaal Williams (groin) still limited as well, Kamara is set up for another monster game this week.
Top Value: Aaron Jones at Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,700 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
With such a good matchup in Jacksonville, and Mac Jones now expected to play instead of Trevor Lawrence, there’s a good chance that the Vikings play from ahead most of the day on Sunday. If that’s the case, they will rely heavily on Jones, who has been a strong option for them throughout his first season in Minnesota.
The Vikings’ RB has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week and is a strong value to consider even though he isn’t exactly cheap. With the current situation, there isn’t an easy cheap play lined up for work in Week 10.
Jones has been busy for the Vikings, taking at least 19 carries in four of his last six games and also averaging 3.6 targets per game this season. Jones has averaged 15.9 DraftKings points per game and has over 10 DraftKings points in seven of his eight games. He didn’t find the end zone in either of the last two weeks but had over 20 DraftKings points after the team’s bye week against the Lions.
Opposing running backs have scored multiple touchdowns in each of the last two weeks against Jacksonville and have found the end zone at least once in every game since Week 2.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson at Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Jefferson has the top ceiling projection this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and there are no other wide receiver options that come anywhere close to matching his upside in the aggregated projections. Ja’Marr Chase already went off on Thursday night, and Jefferson will look to follow his 2019 LSU teammate with more success on Sunday.
Jefferson has been a beast this season while working with Darnold. He has at least six catches in six straight games and has averaged 8.6 targets per game. Jefferson had 24.58 DraftKings points last week against the Colts even though he didn’t find the end zone. He has 100+ yards and over 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks without the boost of a score.
The Jaguars have allowed 11 WR touchdowns in their nine games and an average of over 175 receiving yards per week to the position. Jefferson should go off on Sunday, and he can be a part of a big Vikings stack that should pay off across the board, according to our projections.
Top Value: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Denver Broncos – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
While the situation with Drake London and the Falcons is still critical to watch, as I pointed out in my early look on Wednesday, Hopkins has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers in the aggregate projections on DraftKings after his breakout performance on Monday Night Football after salaries were released. His salary is a little higher on FanDuel, but he still ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus.
It didn’t take Hopkins long at all to get locked in with new QB Patrick Mahomes, and in just his second game with the Chiefs, Hopkins hauled in eight catches on nine targets for 86 yards and two touchdowns. He showed he still has plenty of gas left in the tank to be a key contributor for the Chiefs and will serve as their top WR.
Hopkins’ teammate Xavier Worthy is actually more expensive than Hopkins on both sites but didn’t have a single catch on Monday. While it does seem like part of that is Worthy’s being overpriced, it also speaks to just how affordable Nuk’s salary really is.
Overall this season, the Broncos are a tough matchup for receivers. However, opposing WRs have four scores against them in the last two weeks and over 150 receiving yards in three of the last four.
Even in a tough matchup, Hopkins stands out at this salary, and he is a bargain option with a very high ceiling. Other receivers who stand out on FanDuel include Calvin Ridley and Khalil Shakir. On DraftKings, Josh Downs, Noah Brown, and DeMario Douglas are solid value plays based on their Projected Plus/Minus.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Otton vs. San Francisco 49ers – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
With the Bucs short on wide receivers for the last few weeks, Otton has emerged as an elite tight end play. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight weeks on DraftKings and has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position this week along with the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Otton has a jaw-dropping 31 targets over the last three weeks, and he has hauled in at least eight catches in each of those games. He has over 20 DraftKings points in each of those three games and had two touchdowns and a season-high 29.1 DraftKings points in Week 8 against the Falcons.
This week, he and the Bucs host the 49ers in the game with the highest over/under on Sunday’s slate. The Bucs will still be without Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle), and both Jalen McMillan (hamstring) and Sterling Shepard (hamstring) are also battling injuries. Baker Mayfield will likely look his way early and often on Sunday, and that should lead to more elite production for Otton.
Top Value: Will Dissly vs. Tennessee Titans – $3,100 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Dissly has become the Chargers’ top tight end over the last few weeks, and with Justin Herbert healthier, the offense has looked much more productive. Dissly has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends this week in the aggregate projections on DraftKings, where he also has an 84% Bargain Rating.
From week to week, Dissly’s yardage has been volatile, but he has had multiple catches in every game since Week 1. He had just nine yards on two catches last week against the Browns but had at least four catches in three straight games before that, with a high point of 81 yards on eight catches in Week 7 vs. the Cardinals.
The veteran makes a solid value play in Week 10 against the Titans. Opposing tight ends have scored two touchdowns this season against the Titans and have racked up 16 catches for 121 yards in the last two weeks.
