In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Evan Engram
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 total)
The tight end position is pretty barren this week, so it’s no surprise to see Travis Kelce at the top of the model. Kelce’s usage and production is far closer to an alpha-WR1 than a tight end. He’s run a route on 84% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks, with a 25% target share while being targeted on 24% of his routes. His average depth of target is middling at 8.1, but he has a healthy 27% share of the team’s air yards. He’s also seeing a third of the team’s end zone targets, giving him one of the highest touchdown equity at the tight end position.
Mahomes was forced to drop back a career-high 68 times last week, and this led to Kelce seeing a massive 17 targets. He hauled in ten catches for 106 yards but dropped a few passes that could’ve led to an even greater performance. Kelce has 108, 98, and 106 yards in his past three games. He consistently flashes ceiling at the tight end position, with five games above 22 DraftKings points.
It’s no surprise that Kelce leads our Tournament Model this week, as he has the highest ceiling projection at the position by 12 points. He leads our Cash Game Model as well, projecting for nearly twice as high of a floor as the next tight end. He also ranks towards the top in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, which is impressive when you consider his price tag.
The Jaguars have only allowed one touchdown to tight ends on the season but are allowing 8.8 yards per target, which is the second-highest mark in the league.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (51 total)
Evan Engram was only able to play on 55% of the snaps last week before he exited with a back injury. He caught one of two targets prior to leaving with the injury. Engram doesn’t carry an injury designation for Sunday’s game, so we don’t need to be worried of his status.
His role is secure in this offense, as he’s run a route on 81% of dropbacks for the year, with a 16% share of team targets and being targeted on 18% of his routes. He’s also seen 20% of the team’s end zone targets on the year, so he should be in line for some touchdowns.
The matchup is exploitable, as the Chiefs are allowing 7.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends and an 8.8% touchdown rate. They’ve given up the eighth most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the year.
There is a slight chance that Jacksonville uses Dan Arnold more with Engram having dealt with an injury last week, but his lack of injury designation gives reason for optimism on Engram’s role to stay consistent.
Engram is the top tight end in both Chris Raybon’s and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans (38.5 total)
Dulcich has been a big part of the Denver offense recently. He’s run a route on 81%, 72%, and 91% of dropbacks in his three games since returning from injury. His target numbers have been healthy, with 17 targets in the three-game span. He’s been explosive with the ball in his hands, with receptions on 38 and 39 yards since returning.
Tennessee is a beatable matchup, as they’re allowing 8.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends, which is the seventh-worst rate in the league. They are good at keeping tight ends out of the end zone, but with Dulcich’s cheap price tag, we don’t desperately need him to get there.
Foster Moreau ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (41 total)
With Darren Waller placed on injured reserve, Foster Moreau is now the man in the tight end room for Las Vegas. He hasn’t produced that much with Waller out, with 9.1 and 5.4 DraftKings points in the last two games. His metrics have been good, though, with nine and five targets the past two weeks while running a route on 95.4% and 87.2% of Derek Carr’s dropbacks.
The Colts have been battered by opposing tight ends, ranking in the bottom ten in catch rate, yards per target, and touchdown rate. With Waller and Hunter Renfrow sidelined, we’ll likely see a steady stream of targets continue toward Moreau.
He may not have a massive ceiling, but he’ll definitely be involved in the Raiders’ passing game.
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