In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Saquon Barkley
- Travis Etienne Jr.
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Saquon Barkley ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel): New York Giants (-4.5) vs. Houston Texans (41 total)
Saquon Barkley has a workload that is rivaled by few in the league. He totaled 25, 28, and 23 touches in his three games prior to the Giants’ bye. After a week off, Barkley should be fresh coming out, facing a matchup against one of the league’s worst rush defenses.
Houston has allowed a wholly 5.7 yards per carry while facing the most rush attempts per game. This a pretty tough combination for a defense, and there’s no reason to think things won’t keep trending in the same direction. They’ve surrendered 13 touchdowns to opposing backs, which is tied for the most in the league.
The Texans are allowing 187.9 total yards per game to backs, showing they’ve been getting gashed through the air as well. Barkley has a secure passing-game role, averaging 4.37 targets per game and 23.62 yards per game through the air.
The Giants are a home favorite against a weak defense, don’t overthink it.
Barkley leads our Cash Game and Tournament Model while also being the top back in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (51 total)
Travis Etienne Jr. has taken on one of the most valuable roles in fantasy since James Robinson’s departure. He’s played on 79% and 81% of snaps the past two games, handling 73% and 78% of team rush attempts. He was always involved in the passing game, but he’s run even more routes the past two weeks. He’s run a route on 51% of dropbacks for the season, but he’s been at 59% and 70% the past two weeks.
He’s seen a monster amount of touches in the two games sans Robinson, with 27 touches in Week 8 and 30 touches in Week 9. He has three total touchdowns in the past two weeks and has racked up 288 scrimmage yards. His Week 8 matchup was against Denver, who has boasted one of the best defenses in the league.
The Jaguars fell behind 20-3 early last week against the Raiders but didn’t go away from Etienne. This is a good sign, as the Jaguars may be in another negative game script this week against the Chiefs. Jacksonville is currently a 9.5-point underdog on the road in Kansas City.
The Chiefs have gotten exposed on the ground recently, as they’re giving up 5.9 yards per carry over their past four games. Derrick Henry touched up Kansas City last week, running for 115 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. Kansas City is also allowing the most fantasy points per game through the air to opposing backs.
Etienne ranks towards the top in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary while being the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Josh Jacobs ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (41 total)
Jacobs had a closer-to-normal touch count last week against Jacksonville, carrying the ball 17 times and catching three of three targets. He racked up 87 scrimmage yards and was unable to find the end zone for the second week in a row after finding paydirt six times in the three games prior. Jacobs only had 67 yards on the ground last week, but he ran pretty well. He forced 11 missed tackles, while 66 of his 67 yards came after contact.
There are question marks around Las Vegas’ offensive line and Jacobs’ efficiency, but there aren’t any questions around his workload. He handled 86.9% of the backfield touches last week. He now gets a matchup with the Colts, who are not a pushover. He is a home favorite which is a big plus, but Indianapolis is allowing merely 3.85 yards per carry.
Jacobs may see an increased workload if Las Vegas can get ahead, which may be needed as the matchup is tough.
Alvin Kamara ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (40.5 total)
Kamara wasn’t able to get much going last week against Baltimore, as he had 62 scrimmage yards on 12 touches. The Ravens jumped ahead quickly and forced New Orleans into a negative game script. It was clear that stopping Kamara was their main concern, and they did just that.
Prior to last week, Kamara held one of the most secure roles in fantasy. He averaged 25 touches per game in the four games prior to last week. He’d gone over 100 scrimmage yards in the four games prior to Monday night. The Steelers have been fairly solid against the run, and the potential return of T.J. Watt only diminishes Kamara’s outlook.
Still, 20+ touches is notable against any defense, and Pittsburgh hasn’t been shut down on the year.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+4.5) at New York Giants (41 total)
Running backs on bad teams usually aren’t players to hitch your wagon to, but Dameon Pierce breaks the mold. Pierce is seeing workhorse-type touch counts, as he’s averaging 24.5 touches per game over his last four contests. He’s also taken on more of a role in the passing game, running a route on 59% and 56% of dropbacks over the past two games. Pierce is a powerful and explosive runner, and he has a beatable matchup this week.
Pierce is 8th in the league in yards after contact per carry at 3.8 and has forced a league-high 58 missed tackles. New York is allowing a league-high 2.24 yards before contact to opposing backs and ranks in the bottom ten in fantasy points allowed on the ground.
Pierce will get a boatload of touches and should be efficient with them.
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