Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Alvin Kamara ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Saints. They’ve now lost six straight games, and with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out of the lineup, it doesn’t feel like things are going to turn around any time soon.
While the Saints’ injuries are bad for their real-life output, they do create some value from a fantasy perspective. Kamara stands out as the clear top beneficiary. He was extremely busy for the Saints last week, racking up 29 carries and nine targets vs. the Panthers. That kind of workload is basically unparalleled. He posted a 72% carry share and a 30% target share, so he essentially combined the volume of a top running back and a top receiver in Week 9.
Not much figures to change moving forward. Kamara might not get as many carries if the Saints fall into a hole, but they’re merely 3.5-point underdogs vs. the Falcons. Any reduction in carries could also be easily overcome by more work in the passing game.
The Falcons also stand out as a strong matchup. They’re 24th in rush defense EPA, and Kamara had 24.9 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Falcons this season.
Kamara combines one of the strongest floors and ceilings at the position, and he’s second at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s a slam-dunk option if paying up at the position.
Aaron Jones ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
Jones is the only player who edges out Kamara in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s significantly cheaper at $6,700, resulting in an excellent 92% Bargain Rating.
Jones has always been a hyper-efficient producer, and he’s getting more opportunities than ever with the Vikings. Over his past three games, Jones has posted an 81% snap share, 82% carry share, and 64% route participation. He has 40 carries and six targets over the past two weeks, and while that hasn’t led to much tangible production, it’s still a great sign for his prospects moving forward.
Jones draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Jaguars. Their defense has been a disaster this season, ranking dead last in EPA per play. They have been worse against the pass than the run, but they’ve still allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
The absence of Trevor Lawrence is the cherry on top. The Jaguars could struggle to score points without their starting quarterback, which would set up a favorable game script for Jones. The Vikings are currently favored by 6.5 points, and Jones has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.78 when favored by at least five (per the Trends tool).
J.K. Dobbins ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Chargers are another team that stands out from a Vegas standpoint. They’re taking on the lowly Titans, and they’re listed as 7.5-point favorites in that matchup.
The Chargers have passed the ball at a higher frequency over the past month, but at his core, Jim Harbaugh still wants to run the football. He should have ample opportunities to #EstbalishIt this week.
Dobbins came out of the gates red hot this season, racking up 266 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 27 carries in his first two weeks. He’s come back to reality since then, but Dobbins broke out of his slump last week vs. the Browns. He averaged 6.1 yards per attempt on 14 carries, and he added two rushing touchdowns.
Dobbins stands out as a cash-game-worthy selection on FanDuel, where he’s just $100 more than he is on DraftKings. It results in a 94% Bargain Rating, which is tied for the second-best mark at the position.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Have the Falcons finally figured out how to unlock Robinson? The results over the past four weeks are extremely promising. He’s been hyper-efficient as a runner, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt, and they’ve cranked up his usage in the passing game. He’s racked up seven targets in back-to-back weeks, and he’s been targeted on at least 25% of his routes run in four straight games. Basically, they’re using him very similarly to how the Saints are using Kamara.
As a result, Robinson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 21.5 DraftKings points in all of them.
Robinson should be looking at a sizable workload once again vs. the Saints. Their defense has been exploited over the past month, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Falcons should also be able to play this game from in front, setting up a favorable game script.
Breece Hall ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
The Jets finally managed to right the ship last week vs. the Texans. They had lost five straight games – including disappointing losses to the Broncos and Patriots – but they were able to get back in the win column on Thursday Night Football.
Now, they’ll have a bit of additional time to rest and prep for a matchup vs. the Cardinals. It’s a great matchup for the Jets on paper. The Cardinals are just 26th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs.
Hall hasn’t been quite as good as most were expecting this offseason when he was drafted as the No. 2 or 3 running back in most fantasy leagues. However, his workload remains extremely desirable. He’s been one of the busiest pass-catchers in football out of the backfield, posting a 16% target share while being targeted on 21% of his routes run. He’s also handled 88% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, giving him significant upside as a receiver and a touchdown scorer.
Hall is projected for significant ownership this week, and he’s not popping up in the optimal lineup simulations quite as frequently as his 18.8% ownership suggests. That said, he still has the fourth-best optimal rate at the position.
D’Andre Swift ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Swift is another running back who looks like he could be a bit over–owned this week. He’s projected for just under 20% ownership on DraftKings, but he’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a roughly 12% clip.
Still, there’s no denying his upside vs. the Patriots. It’s a game that the Bears are widely expected to win, checking in as six-point home favorites. The Patriots have also been susceptible on the ground this season, ranking 22nd in rush defense EPA.
Swift is coming off a subpar showing last week, finishing with just 51 yards on 16 carries, but he managed to salvage his fantasy stock with six receptions. He ultimately posted a positive Plus/Minus for the fifth straight game. He’s displayed upside as a runner and a receiver this season, so he has multiple paths to relevance vs. the Patriots.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Saquon Barkley ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)
Listen, you hurdle over a guy backward; you make it into the write-up. I don’t make the rules.
(Editor’s note: LaMarca very much does make the rules)
Barkley has been the No. 2 running back in PPR points per game through the first nine weeks, trailing only Derrick Henry.
Most people are expected to gravitate towards Kamara or Robinson in this price range, which could make Barkley a bit undervalued. That said, there’s no reason he should be. He draws a juicy matchup vs. the Cowboys, who are dead last in rush defense EPA. The Eagles are also favored by 7.5 points on the road, and the Cowboys could struggle to compete without Dak Prescott. It sets up as a spot where Barkley could see a ton of work, so he’s an elite pivot off some of the chalkier high-priced RBs.
Tony Pollard ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Pollard has been an underappreciated source of fantasy production for most of the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games this season, and he’s coming off a season-high 21.4 DraftKings points last week vs. the Patriots.
Pollard probably won’t approach 28 carries this week, but he still managed to get to 20 in a game against the Lions, where the team lost by 38 points. He’s had at least 16 carries in all but one game this season, so his workload has been extremely consistent.
Pollard is also a capable pass-catcher, and he’s had at least three receptions in three of his past four games. If he can find the paint vs. the Chargers – something he hasn’t done often this season – he has decent upside for his price tag.
Rachaad White ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
The Buccaneers’ receiving corps is in shambles. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are out with injuries, and Jalen McMillan could also miss this week’s game vs. the 49ers. That leaves them with a really uninspiring group at the position.
With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Bucs lean on some of their other position groups. Cade Otton has been the biggest beneficiary, but White and Bucky Irving have also seen spikes in pass-catching responsibilities of late. White has six targets in two of his past three games, and the Buccaneers are likely going to have to throw to keep up with the 49ers this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Patriots nearly pulled off an upset last week, and it wouldn’t shock me if they did it again. The Bears’ offensive line has been a disaster of late, so it might not be smooth sailing for their offense vs. the Patriots.
If this game is close, Stevenson has the potential for a big day. The Bears’ defense is absolutely elite vs. the pass, but they’re a bit more vulnerable against the run. Stevenson hasn’t been particularly efficient as a runner of late, but he does have three touchdowns over his past two outings. Add in his solid pass-catching chops, and he could crack 20 DraftKings points for the third straight week.
