The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Sam Darnold ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Darnold has had an up-and-down season for the Vikings. It started with a bang, posting a positive Plus/Minus and at least 20.92 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. He then hit a stumbling block in London vs. the Jets, and he posted a negative Plus/Minus in his first two games back in the States.
However, Darnold turned things around last week vs. the Colts. He finished with 22.0 DraftKings points and a +2.32 Plus/Minus, throwing for 290 yards and three touchdowns. Overall, the positives have far outweighed the negatives, with Darnold ranking as the No. 12 QB in fantasy points per game.
Darnold is set up for another big outing this week. He’s taking on the Jaguars, who have been one of the best matchups possible for opposing quarterbacks. They’re dead last in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers.
The Vikings are also getting a ton of respect from Vegas. They’re listed as nine-point road favorites, and their 25.5-point implied team total is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Darnold stands out as underpriced across the industry. He has the third-highest median projection at the position but just the ninth-highest price tag on DraftKings.
Jayden Daniels ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a bit more upside, paying up for Daniels is certainly viable. His matchup vs. the Steelers is far from ideal – he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -8.0 on DraftKings – but he’s still grading out as one of the best options at the position in our NFL Models.
Daniels has taken the NFL by storm as a rookie, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Two of the players ahead of him – Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield – aren’t available on the main slate, while Daniels has provided consistent production all season. He has at least 19.86 DraftKings points in all but two games, and one of those was a game he left early with an injury. The other came in just his second NFL start.
Daniels was seemingly designed in a lab to score fantasy points. He’s a massive running threat, averaging 51.0 yards per game while scoring four touchdowns, and he’s highly efficient as a passer. He’s averaged 8.93 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer, while he’s first at the position in EPA + CPOE composite.
Ultimately, Daniels is still underpriced for the kind of production he’s provided all season. He’s available at a big discount compared to guys like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen on FanDuel, and that simply shouldn’t be the case.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Brock Purdy ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
The 49ers have struggled so far this season, but don’t forget just how dominant this offense was last year. They led the league in virtually every offensive category, and Purdy emerged as a legit MVP candidate. He ultimately faded a bit down the stretch, but they still finished the year as a top-three team in both yards and points per game.
There’s a chance the 49ers return to their former glory in Week 10. They’ve played without Christian McCaffrey all season, while Jauan Jennings has missed multiple weeks with an injury. Both players have returned to practice recently, so they could be back in the lineup vs. the Buccaneers. That would give the offense a massive shot in the arm.
They’re also in an ideal spot against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is just 26th in pass defense EPA, and their offense is good enough that opposing teams have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters. This game has the highest total on the main slate at 50.5 points, and that still might be too low. The Buccaneers have gone 7-2 to the over this season, while the 49ers are 5-3.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
It’s bizarre to see Mahomes priced this cheaply, but it’s warranted based on his play for most of the year. He’s merely tied for 16th at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of eight games on DraftKings.
The good news? He’s coming off his best game of the season last week vs. the Bucs, finishing with 291 yards, three touchdown passes, and 24.54 DraftKings points. DeAndre Hopkins was fully integrated into the offense, and he was a legit difference-maker for a team that sorely needed playmakers.
It sets up an interesting buy-low scenario with Mahomes in Week 10. His matchup vs. the Broncos is significantly tougher – they’re No. 3 in pass defense EPA – but Mahomes has historically smashed with a comparable price tag. He’s only been priced below $6,800 on 10 previous occasions, and he’s averaged a +3.33 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).
If Mahomes and Hopkins can connect for another couple of touchdown passes vs. the Broncos, this will likely be your last chance to target him at a reduced price tag.
Justin Herbert ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
If Mahomes’ salary is bizarre, Herbert’s is downright mind-boggling. This is a guy who had a historically-good rookie season and is considered one of the best young passers in the league. Now, he’s priced in the same ballpark as Cooper Rush? What gives?
Herbert started the year playing in a very boring offense, which neutered his skillset. However, Jim Harbaugh has taken the training wheels off of late. The team has a positive Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) in each of their past three games, and Herbert has averaged 303.3 passing yards per game over that stretch. He’s also added two touchdown passes in each of his past two games.
Herbert and the Chargers will likely have to air it out once again this week. The Titans have been solid defensively, especially against the run. They’re No. 7 in rush defense EPA, so the Chargers best chance of moving the ball is with Herbert’s right arm.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Cooper Rush ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Speaking of Rush, he’s going to make his first start of the season in place of the injured Dak Prescott. We’ve seen Rush previously, starting five games in place of Prescott in the 2022-23 season. He wasn’t particularly effective, averaging 191.2 passing yards and one score per game, but he didn’t look overmatched, either.
Rush is going to have a chance to throw the ball a bunch this week vs. the Eagles. Philly is favored by a touchdown on the road, and their offense has scored at least 28 points in three straight games. The Cowboys have had zero success running the football, so Rush is going to have to air it out to give his team a chance.
Kyler Murray ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Murray and the Cardinals have been one of the biggest surprises this season, and they’re currently atop the NFC West at 5-4. Murray has been a big part of their success, and he’s scored at least 21.2 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. He remains one of the top dual-threat passers in football, trailing only Jackson and Daniels with 350 rushing yards.
Murray isn’t expected to garner much ownership this week, partly due to his matchup vs. the Jets. New York has a tough defense, but they haven’t been unbeatable this season. They’re merely ninth in pass defense EPA, and they dip all the way to 26th against the run.
He’s showing up at a higher frequency in the optimal lineup simulations that his projected ownership, making him an ideal pivot off the similarly-priced Darnold for tournaments.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
Hurts is the most expensive quarterback of the week, and that’s going to work against him for tournaments. After all, why pay all the way up for Hurts on FanDuel when you can get Daniels for -$1,000 less?
That could actually work out to be a positive for Hurts in tournaments. He should garner virtually no ownership, but his ceiling remains as high as anyone’s. That’s particularly true against the Cowboys, who have been a disaster defensively this season. Hurts has scored at least 29.9 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and it should shock no one if he makes it three in a row.
