Patriots at Cardinals
This game currently has a 47.5-point implied Vegas total. The Cardinals are six-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points. The Patriots are implied to score 20.75 points as the road underdogs. There currently looks to be hot weather in Arizona, mostly sunny and 102 degrees, although the Cardinals’ stadium does have a retractable roof.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo, who has yet to start a regular season NFL game, is the Patriots starting quarterback while Tom Brady serves his four-game suspension. Of 49 players with 40-plus pass attempts this preseason, Garoppolo finished 11th in Passer Rating (95.1) and ninth in completion percentage (66.7 percent). Last year, the average Passer Rating (five-plus games played, average 20-plus pass attempts) was 88.53, and the Cardinals defense surrendered an average 88.11 Passer Rating while at home (74.78 on the road). Garoppolo has the sixth-best rating according to the Bales Player Model. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+2.8) of any quarterback this week on DraftKings.
The Patriots have ruled out starting left tackle Nate Solder (hamstring) and starting right guard Jonathan Cooper (foot). Garoppolo isn’t catching a lot of breaks in the leadup to his first NFL start.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
As a Patriot, Blount has scored 23 touchdowns in 30 career games. With little competition for early-down work this week with Dion Lewis out, he is the top-rated RB on the Bales Player Model for DraftKings at $3,700. Blount could be leaned on heavily with Garoppolo under center against the Cardinals, at least early on and at the goal line. He has seven touchdowns in his last 16 attempts inside the five-yard line and was 10th in the NFL with 32 red-zone carries in 2015. Blount took on 49.2 percent of the Patriots’ total red-zone rushing percentage. Belichick is willing to abandon the run against strong run defenses, and the Cardinals gave up the sixth-fewest yards per game on the ground last year. In his last 16 games with the Patriots, Blount has been the underdog on the road just twice at an average salary of $6,700 on FanDuel. Per our Trends tool, the results haven’t been good.
If considering Blount, he is a much better value on DraftKings with a 93 percent Bargain Rate.
RB – James White
The 2015 leader in yards per touch (7.5), White will take over for Lewis a pass-catching role. Last year, White caught 40 passes for 410 yards and also added six total touchdowns. Against a strong Cardinals front, White’s versatility protects him from poor game script. Including playoffs, in his past eight games White has averaged 7.4 targets per game. White has a higher projected floor and ceiling than Blount on both DraftKings & FanDuel in Week 1 against the Cardinals. Without Lewis, this is not a surprise.
WR – Julian Edelman
A key member of the short-intermediate passing game, Edelman averaged 7.0 catches and 75 yards per game over the past two seasons on just over ten targets per game. The Cardinals gave up the eight-fewest receiving yards last season, and it’s possible that Edelman could see some snaps against Patrick Peterson, PFF’s fourth-ranked coverage corner.
WR – Chris Hogan
Hogan could in theory become a version of 2014 Brandon LaFell in this offense. He is a 99th percentile athlete according to his SPARQ-x score of 135.4, per Player Profiler. Two tight ends are also fighting for targets, but he could have upside as a GPP flyer this week if the Patriots get behind.
WR – Danny Amendola
He took a pay cut to remain a Patriot, and he has thrived in relief of Edelman, averaging 18.08 DraftKings points per game. The problem is that when Edelman is healthy Amendola does not have any standalone value. Amendola currently has a -4.8 Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings & FanDuel.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Starter Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) is out and Bennett should have almost all of the tight end work to himself. He’s now as chalky as they come. If Bennett can steal some red-zone looks he could provide a ton of value in DFS. Bennett holds the ninth-highest rating in the Bales Player Model with a 83 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
Carson Palmer
Palmer is coming off a career year in which he led the league in adjusted yards per pass attempt at 8.51 and threw touchdowns on 6.7 percent of his passes. He was an excellent DFS asset throughout the entire year, exceeding salary-based expectations by an average of 3.85 points on DK (with 75 percent Consistency) and 2.06 points on FD.
The matchup is an average one: The Patriots ranked 15th in Pass DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) last season; Palmer has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.6 on DK. His projected DK ceiling this week sits at 34 points, which is the fifth-highest mark even though he has the 12th-highest salary at the position. Because of Dak Prescott and other QBs in elite spots, Palmer will likely have low ownership in tournaments.
RB – David Johnson
Once Johnson took over as the full-time back last season, he was one of the best in the NFL: He posted a 56 percent rushing success rate and 4.6 yards-per-attempt mark. He was also very efficient in the red zone, posting a RZ TD percentage of 31.8 percent and a RZ success rate of 54.5 percent. Also, he averaged 43.2 receiving yards on 3.4 receptions per game once he was the lead Cards back. What I mean is this: He’s a good player at football.
This week he faces a New England team that ranked 10th against the run last year, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. He has the highest-projected floor on both DraftKings and FanDuel, although we’re projecting him for double-digit ownership on both sites.
RB – Chris Johnson
The other Johnson won’t be a fantasy-relevant player unless DJ gets injured. He’s no longer a pass catcher, as he had only six receptions last year. Chris currently has a -4.0 Projected Plus/Minus on FD due to his odd $6,000 price tag.
RB – Andre Ellington
Ellington is a guy who could be a third-down pass catcher, but he first has to prove that he can stay healthy and be a part of the offense. Palmer threw 69.1 percent of his passes to wide receivers last year, which was the third-highest mark in the league. David Johnson is the only Cardinals RB worth thinking about this week.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
Although the NFL community seemingly wants to displace 33-year-old Fitzgerald as the Cardinals No. 1 receiver, it just hasn’t happened. Fitz’s market share metrics last year are telling: He owned 26.5 percent of the Cardinals’ targets, 25.4 percent of their receiving yards, and 25.7 percent of their receiving touchdowns. Although New England was stingy versus RBs last year, they allowed the 22nd-most fantasy points to WRs. Fitzgerald is currently projected to outscore his DK salary-based expectations by 1.8 points and his FD salary by 0.8 points.
WR – John Brown
He saw a smaller market share of the Cardinals’ receiving metrics last year, but Brown was actually the team’s most efficient receiver: He posted a 12.0 ANYPA on his targets and averaged 1.4 yards per snap. He also posted the highest touchdown rate among Cards receivers. The difference between Fitzgerald, Brown, and Michael Floyd on a weekly basis is tough to predict; thankfully Brown’s low $5,200 DK price tag makes it easier. (Fitzgerald is $6,300 and Floyd is $5,900.) JoBro has a Projected Plus/Minus of +3.1 on DraftKings and currently has nine Pro Trends there (tied with Julio Jones for the most on the slate).
WR – Michael Floyd
Of the Cards’ three receivers, Floyd averaged the fewest snaps per game (40) but had the highest big play percentage at 14.6 percent. As expected, he also led the team with 16.3 yards per reception. Floyd had the lowest Consistency mark of the three at 20 percent, although he had the highest Upside mark at 53 percent. You can see where this is headed: Floyd is an ideal GPP play. If targeting him, do so on FanDuel, where he has an 80 percent Bargain Rating and two to four percent projected ownership.
WR – J.J. Nelson
The 2015 fifth-round speedster isn’t fantasy-relevant right now, but he’s a guy to monitor in case anything happens to one of the receivers listed above. Of course, if he happens to get on the field in a four-receiver set and get open deep, he’s probably scoring a touchdown.
TE – Darren Fells
Fells and Jermaine Gresham will split time, but neither should be on your radar. Palmer threw 69.1 percent of his passes last year to his WRs. Only 10.8 percent of his passes went to his tight ends, which was higher than only Ryan Fitzpatrick’s mark in New York.
