Chargers at Chiefs
This game has a 44.5-point implied Vegas total. The Chiefs are seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points. The Chargers are implied to score 18.75 points as the road underdogs. The weather is expected to be sunny on Sunday with the temperature at 80 degrees, 10 percent precipitation, and winds at 10-15 miles per hour. That wind might favor the running game a little.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
The Chargers ran the most passing plays in the league (707) and had the sixth-highest percentage of pass plays (64.21 percent) last year. With Rivers under siege behind a decimated offensive line, the short-intermediate passing game and dump-offs became an extension of the running game. The Chargers were fifth in red-zone pass percentage at 65 percent. Rivers attempted the deep ball 3.7 times per game last year, but that is skewed by volume. The percentage of total passes that went deep was 29th in the league. From an efficiency standpoint, Rivers’ last three years were his best in completion percentage, and he was 12th in the NFL with a 93.8 QBR in 2015. That said, Rivers struggled in the division against loaded defenses in the AFC West, per our Trends tool.
RB – Melvin Gordon
Even though, the Chargers 2015 first-round pick scored zero touchdowns last year, Gordon boasted a 43.0 percent Success Rate as a rookie. Gordon saw just 12 of 217 touches come in the red zone. San Diego went as far as drafting Gordon’s lead blocker from college (Derek Watt) this offseason, as he is much more comfortable in two-back sets.Gordon averaged fewer yards per carry with a quarterback under center (2.7) than out of plays in the shotgun (3.8). Behind statistically the NFL’s second-worst offensive line (per Football Outsiders), Gordon performed above expectation in his 2015 Rushing Expectation sample by 2.7 percent per attempt and 4.1 percent per target.
RB – Danny Woodhead
Last year, Woodhead led the team in carries and targets inside the 10-yard line, where he got 40 percent of the team’s carries. He was given the most targets of any RB in the league in the red zone (15) and converted them into five touchdowns. He averaged 6.63 targets per game and saw a 20.8 percent target share in the red zone, as well as 50 percent of the team’s red-zone carries and 71.4 percent of the carries inside the five. When targeting Woodhead, consider him on FD, where he holds a top-20 rating in the Tournament Model with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Keenan Allen
Without Allen, Rivers has thrown nearly 90 fewer yards and almost a touchdown less per game. Allen was on a ridiculous pace last season with 89 targets through eight games in which he totaled a Plus/Minus of +5.79. Allen may never have the touchdown numbers that most top-tier receivers have, but his volume is undeniable, as he has the eighth-highest floor on DraftKings this week, matched up against either Marcus Peters or Phillip Gaines. Allen could be a sneaky tournament pivot this week at a projected ownership of 5 to 8 percent.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Of all the players to have a high average depth of target (Benjamin’s was 12.6 last year), only eight of them saw more targets than Benjamin did. In 2015, he posted a Plus/Minus of +7.42 through the first eight games but faded in the second half (-0.5). Filling the void of the deep threat in this offense left by Malcom Floyd, Benjamin has the 11th-highest rating in the Bales Player Model. Although Rivers doesn’t go deep often, he still had the 16th-most deep ball throws in the league last year.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
Unfortunately, Inman has only seen significant DFS viability when Allen has been hurt. In those instances over the past few years, he has averaged 55 yards and four receptions. He has been productive when given targets, but at $3,400 on DK, he is nothing but a risky punt play.
TE – Antonio Gates
Gates was riddled by injuries in 2015, but just two years ago he had 12 touchdowns and was the NFL’s fifth-most targeted player inside the ten-yard line. Last year Gates was second on the team in red-zone target market share (18.1 percent) behind only Woodhead and could see even more red-zone work this year with Floyd’s retirement. The coverage from Eric Berry (PFF’s seventh-best safety) is an extremely tough matchup for Gates this week and we could see Rivers look to his wide receiver options more often.
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
In three years with the Chiefs, Smith has ranked last in average depth of target each season, which lowers his ceiling. But he also finished 4th, 9th, and 6th in rush attempts over that same time period, which raises his floor. Kansas City finished 29th in pass attempts last year and was last in deep-ball attempt percentage (12.9 percent). The average QB had 3.01 rush attempts in 2015. Quarterbacks (like Smith) in the top quartile ran the ball 5.50 times per game. Per our Trends tool, quarterbacks who ran the ball 5.5-plus times have delivered a +3.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a 61.0 percent Consistency. Smith average six rush attempts per game in two games against the Chargers last year, above his season average of 5.31.
RB – Spencer Ware
Starting running back Jamaal Charles is behind schedule as he rehabs his second ACL tear, and so Ware is expected be the lead back this week. Ware holds the highest rating this week in the Bales Player Model on FanDuel with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He is the clear chalk at 21-25 and 26-30 percent projected ownership on FanDuel and DraftKings. Ware performed above expectation in his 2015 Rushing Expectation sample by 12.0 percent in the run game whereas West fell below expectation by 4.1 percent behind the same Kansas City offensive line. Ware had a 50.0 percent touchdown conversion rate in the red zone last year (best in the NFL) and 13.64 percent more efficient than the next player. He also scored five times on seven carries within the five-yard line.
The Chiefs ran plays at the second-lowest pace in the league last year at 29.94 sec/play but had the sixth-highest percentage of total runs (46.0 percent) and the ninth-most run plays of 10-plus yards. The Chargers gave up the eighth-most run plays of 10-plus yards last year and they have been a bottom-five team in regards to yards per rush allowed in all three seasons under defensive coordinator John Pagano. Not to mention the Chiefs actually performed better without Charles last year.
Charles (knee) is officially listed as doubtful, and head coach Andy Reid has said that Charles probably won’t play in Week 1. Reid also said that a committee would likely play in place of Charles.
RB – Charcandrick West
On DraftKings, Ware has second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (+5.2) but West is not far behind at +2.9, good for sixth overall. In the Bales Model on DraftKings, West actually rates higher than Ware, with a salary of just $3,500, floor projection of 6.6 pts, and ceiling projection of 13.4 pts. West has a skill set that more closely mirrors Charles’, and at just two to four percent projected ownership he could be a decent pivot off of Ware in GPPs. Although he was far less efficient than Ware last season, West did break a 47-yard reception against these same Chargers.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
According to our Matchups page, Maclin will primarily line up opposite Jason Verrett, PFF’s No. 2 coverage corner. At $6,500, Maclin doesn’t have a great matchup, as comparably priced receivers have averaged a -0.16 Plus/Minus with 44.4 percent Consistency against the Chargers on DraftKings. Maclin actually performed much worse than that against Verrett last season in their two meetings.
WR – Chris Conley
Last year, the Chiefs scored the fifth-most first quarter points in the league year (5.8) and had the sixth-highest second-half time of possession rates (53.31 percent). They want to control the ball and run the football first. That’s not good news for Conley, the team’s second receiver. Aside from an injury, he has limited value. In Kansas City’s Week 3 preseason dress rehearsal, Conley caught just two of five targets. He finished the preseason with a 5-96-0 stat line.
WR – Albert Wilson
Priced just below Conley at $3,600 on DraftKings, the slot receiver Wilson did not perform well in the preseason and has a very low ceiling projection of 6.7 point this week. His Projected Plus/Minus is a weeping -2.6.
TE – Travis Kelce
With Verrett on Maclin in this game, Kelce could see additional targets in a passing game that features him as the clear No. 2 option. Kelce holds the sixth-highest DK rating in the Bales Player Model with an 88 percent Bargain Rating. There’s not a lot of upside in the Kansas City passing attack, but Kelce hit 2x and 3x value 56.25 and 37.50 percent of the time last season on DraftKings. There’s enough upside here.
