Buccaneers at Falcons
This game currently has a 47.5-point implied Vegas total. The Falcons are currently 2.5-point home favorites, implied to score 25.25 points. The Buccaneers are implied to score 22.25 points as road underdogs. Weather will not be an issue, with the Falcons debuting their new retractable-domed Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Only three quarterbacks finished as top-24 options every single week last year: Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Winston. Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, 42 percent of Winston’s fantasy production against the Falcons last year came via rushing. We’ve heard all offseason that Dirk Koetter intends on speeding up the play calling this year, but the way to beat Atlanta might be through the ground game. The Falcons allowed just 19 passing touchdowns last season, third-fewest in the league. Winston’s $7,500 price tag on FanDuel puts him in the range of quarterbacks with much better matchups to take advantage of in Week 1.
RB – Doug Martin
The Falcons gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns last year while yielding the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on DraftKings. Martin averaged 20.8 touches per game last season, seeing the type of volume we’re chasing in our cash game running backs, and he also had a propensity for the big play. Martin’s 14 rushes of 20-plus yards led the league and resulted in a hefty 4.9 yards/carry on nearly 300 carries. Priced at RB13 on DK, Martin is currently projected in our Player Models to get 14.9 points. He makes for a fine play even though the Bucs are road underdogs.
RB – Charles Sims
Not only did the Falcons bleed fantasy points to running backs on the ground last year, but they were also abysmal defending running backs in the passing game. The Falcons gave up the most receptions and third-most receiving yards to running backs last year and in Week 1 will be facing one of the league’s best receiving backs in Sims, who averaged 4.4 targets per game last year, finishing second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Per our Trends tool, we’ve seen these kinds of backs excel on DraftKings with +4.41 Plus/Minus.
WR – Mike Evans
According to our Matchups page, Evans should spend most of his time lined up against Robert Alford. At 6’5″ and 231 lbs., Evans towers over Alford’s 5’9″ and 189 lb. frame. Winston should continuously look his way throughout the game. Evans dominated from a market share perspective last year, seeing 28.2 percent of the team’s targets and 29.8 percent of the receiving yards. However, Evans struggled last year against Atlanta, catching just eight receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown in their two matchups combined. With the very real possibility that Evans also sees some snaps against Desmond Trufant, it’s hard to suggest Evans in cash games, considering the litany of receivers who are cheaper and have better matchups.
WR – Vincent Jackson
Trufant didn’t start shadowing receivers until Week 16 of last year. If he mans the left cornerback position in Week 1 (as he did most of the year), he should see a decent mix of both Evans and Jackson as they move around the formation. If Trufant does tail Evans, the Buccaneers’ top receiver could be in for a tough outing, as last year quarterbacks targeted the shutdown corner on just 14 percent of the routes he defended.
This leaves Jackson kind of in no-man’s land. If Trufant shadows Evans, then V-Jax’s $4,400 salary on DraftKings could make him a value. If, though, Trufant stays at left corner and plays primarily against V-Jax, then he’d be risky as even a tournament play. The presence of Trufant on the field really creates a lot of doubt regarding how to use Evans and Jackson in DFS in Week 1.
WR – Adam Humphries
Taking the slot receiver role away from Kenny Bell without looking back, Humphries shined this preseason. Unfortunately, it might be a role without a ton of volume. Humphries saw just four games of five-plus targets last year, despite seeing the third-most snaps at receiver.
TE – Cameron Brate
Tight ends fared quite well against Atlanta last season, posting a +2.6 Plus/Minus allowed, sixth-worst in the league. The Falcons allowed the fourth-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and sixth-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends in 2015. Brate’s $4,600 salary and 83 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel make him rosterable, and he could help you differentiate tournament lineups while playing against the team that allowed the fourth-most red zone targets to tight ends.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
The offseason drama surrounding ASJ has been bizarre to follow but ultimately led to his demotion. Maybe he’ll be the guy benefiting from all those red-zone targets the Falcons allow to tight ends, but there’s no way to know that in advance. He’s currently listed as a co-starter but still seems to be far behind Brate.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Priced a little softer on DraftKings, Ryan has a $7,100 salary that is tied for the 13th-highest this week. Last season, the Buccaneers yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, largely due to the 34 touchdowns allowed (fifth-most). Ryan had only six games of multiple touchdowns last season, so he’s not really a ceiling play, but Tampa Bay’s secondary remains a work in progress. Ryan has a good chance to get multiple touchdowns.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Tampa Bay held opposing running backs in check last season, ranking middle of the pack in nearly every statistical category. Despite being held out of the end zone in both the games against the Bucs last year, Freeman was still able to average 19.7 fantasy points on DraftKings in those games. Home favorites in this matchup, the Falcons are unlikely to give Freeman the 9.5 targets he averaged last year against the Bucs, but his receiving prowess nevertheless provides a nice floor for last year’s No. 1 running back.
RB – Tevin Coleman
While Freeman out-snapped Coleman last year, reports all offseason have stated that the Falcons want to create a more even timeshare between the two running backs. And in their Week 3 preseason dress rehearsal, the Falcons indicated that the reports have merit, as Coleman saw the same number of first-half snaps as Freeman. Plus, Coleman had the starting gig under wraps last year prior to a Week 2 rib injury.
If that even timeshare continues into Week 1, Coleman’s 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel could pay off, especially if Atlanta gives Coleman carries near the goal-line. Tampa Bay allowed the seventh-most red zone trips to opposing offenses last year.
This week, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said that the team will use the runner with the hot hand in 2016. That approach seems to benefit Coleman more than Freeman.
WR – Julio Jones
Julio is set to face off against Alterraun Verner, Pro Football Focus’ No. 90 cornerback last season, and he’ll also probably see some snaps against rookie Vernon Hargreaves. Between those two, Julio should have ample opportunity to fine the end zone, given that last season he led the league in targets and Tamps Bay allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers (22).
Julio currently leads all receivers in Pro Trends on FanDuel and his 25.2-point projected ceiling trails only that of Brown. If you’re looking for a contrarian stack to utilize this week, you could pairing Julio with Freeman in order to targeting the Falcons’ 25.25 projected point total.
Julio was limited in practice on Wednesday but practiced fully on Thursday. Head coach Dan Quinn says that Julio will play.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
According to PFF, the free agent acquisition last year ran 89 percent of his routes from the slot. Atlanta passed 60.8 percent of the time last season and should provide Sanu with enough volume to warrant interest for DFS purposes. With good size, Sanu could be a red-zone weapon for Ryan going against a Bucs unit that was top-10 last year in Opponent Plus/Minus for wide receivers.
WR – Justin Hardy
Hardy started slow last year, but by season’s end he was seeing 60-plus percent of the team’s snaps.
Per the RotoViz Snap Report, Hardy climbed his way into the rotation during the second half of the season and finished with 5.3 targets per game over the team’s final four games.
With Roddy White out of the picture, Hardy will be given an opportunity to play some on the outside when Sanu is manning the slot. Of course, getting snaps isn’t the same thing as getting targets.
TE – Jacob Tamme
The Buccaneers ranked middle of the pack in DVOA against tight ends last year (18th) but gave up the fifth-most receptions to the position (91). Tamme is by no means a must-start on either site, but the opportunity is there. Tamme finished last year 13th in both targets and receptions among all tight ends, and he had three games with at least eight targets. That includes dropping a 10-103-1 game against Tampa Bay. Tamme ranks as the sixth-best tight end in the CSURAM88 Model this week on DraftKings at a punt price of just $2,800.
